# Professions that will cease to exist in the future due to automation? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 11, 2015, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530 "2015-01-11T06:44:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/61 "2015-01-16T19:36:30Z")
> [@BMalion](#): > > Before I retired, large companies were moving a lot of their travel to an online travel website that could only be accessed by employees. The reservation passed our inspection, then was issued. Domestic and basic international flights were handled this way, only complex itineraries would be handled by a human. We went from 100 employees to about 40 in my day. > > It is only a matter of time. Inside or outside won’t really matter much. It depends on the size of the company. But some sort of corporate travel agency will always exist to enforce travel rules. But it will be highly automated - I think we get charged extra to talk to a person about making reservations. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/62 "2015-01-16T21:53:46Z")
> [@ultrafilter](#): > > We’ve seen a big change in the legal profession due to automation. It used to be that there were a lot of lawyers at the entry level whose job was to search through books of prior case law and the like to answer questions about ongoing cases. Once search engines showed up, there was no further need for people to do that sort of job. Still, I doubt machines will be drafting pleadings or negotiating with opposing counsel or arguing in court in your lifetime or mine. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/63 "2015-01-16T22:05:37Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > My position on automation is that 90 to 95 percent of human workers will become unemployable within 30 years or so. The software needs to replace most jobs do not require AI, it’s a matter of incremental improvements in most fields, not some transformative revolution. We’re already on the track to get there and moving faster every day. I think your estimate is wildly optimistic, even though I agree with the eventual premise. 30 years? Of course we’re going to see whole classes of professions disappear in the next 30 years, and plenty of those will be what we consider “knowledge jobs”. But much more likely is that technology will increase the productivity of existing workers by taking parts of their workload. An expert system that can diagnose a patient’s symptoms is one thing, changing a bedpan is quite another. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/64 "2015-01-16T23:45:14Z")
Will anything alleviate the massive Human suffering this will cause? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/65 "2015-01-16T23:58:34Z")
Moderators of Message Boards. ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/66 "2015-01-17T00:04:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Internet usage was not “common” 20 years ago. 20 years ago most people didn’t use the Internet much, if at all, and such use as there was was much more limited than it is now. > > The Internet is already eating into the traditional “REALTOR!!!11” model, and will continue to do so. For most purposes real estate agents are an immense waste of money given the existence of the Internet, and the future will bear that out. > > What’s keeping the real estate racket going is their dominance over the listings through the MLS system, but that’ll be solved eventually. I expect they will fade out as did travel agents. Are there still any left? ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/67 "2015-01-17T00:06:59Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > I think your estimate is wildly optimistic, even though I agree with the eventual premise. 30 years? Of course we’re going to see whole classes of professions disappear in the next 30 years, and plenty of those will be what we consider “knowledge jobs”. But much more likely is that technology will increase the productivity of existing workers by taking parts of their workload. An expert system that can diagnose a patient’s symptoms is one thing, changing a bedpan is quite another. How about block layers? I believe one could make a block laying robot right now, but you’d probably need a robot tech standing behind it to make sure it works correctly. ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/68 "2015-01-17T00:08:03Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > Will anything alleviate the massive Human suffering this will cause? Why would who be suffering? ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/69 "2015-01-17T00:13:23Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Still, I doubt machines will be drafting pleadings or negotiating with opposing counsel or arguing in court in your lifetime or mine. Machines may replace judges. Input facts and mitigations \> output sentence. I once read an SF short Story regarding a Robot Pope. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/70 "2015-01-17T00:42:57Z")
> [@DingoelGringo](#): > > Why would who be suffering? The millions of unemployed, who will be utterly unable to feed, clothe, or house themselves. After all, the practical definition of a robot is: _a machine designed to eliminate a job._ And, unlike prior kinds of automation, digital tech does not seem to create new job opportunities. (If you disagree with this last part, please give me a rational reason as to why.) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/71 "2015-01-17T02:15:18Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > Will anything alleviate the massive Human suffering this will cause? Well, robots, probably. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/72 "2015-01-17T04:06:26Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > And, unlike prior kinds of automation, digital tech does not seem to create new job opportunities. > (If you disagree with this last part, please give me a rational reason as to why.) So what are all those people working in Silicon Valley doing? The problem with the doom-and-gloomers is that they never predict the jobs that are _created_ by automation. 20 years ago who would have thought we’d have jobs at Facebook, Hulu, and Snapchat? Take the example of online travel agencies (e.g. Expedia): sure, plenty of travel agents have lost their jobs. Some of those are made up for by the jobs at the OTAs. Much more importantly, OTAs have made travel easier and _less expensive_. The result is that more people travel which leads to more jobs in the travel industry. So yeah, travel agents lost their jobs but the money that went into their salaries just moved to other people **and** we get to travel more. This is a win. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/73 "2015-01-17T05:04:56Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > I think your estimate is wildly optimistic, even though I agree with the eventual premise. 30 years? Of course we’re going to see whole classes of professions disappear in the next 30 years, and plenty of those will be what we consider “knowledge jobs”. But much more likely is that technology will increase the productivity of existing workers by taking parts of their workload. An expert system that can diagnose a patient’s symptoms is one thing, changing a bedpan is quite another. It’s not optimism, it’s pessimism. If it turns over that quickly, social conditions in the United States and many other countries will cause the massive human suffering mentioned in Bosda’s post. A longer ramp up will allow societies to adapt. Doubt that will happen. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/74 "2015-01-17T05:25:21Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I’ve heard the “it’s different this time” argument before. It’s always been wrong. It is possible that I am wrong on the timeline. I certainly hope I am. But I don’t see how I can possibly be wrong in terms of my basic idea. Like I said, the improvements in software and hardware that are needed to make human bodies and most human minds replaceable are incremental. You don’t need A.I. to cook a burger, assemble a motherboard or run a harvester. The days of humans being needed to keep people fed, clothed and sheltered are rapidly drawing to a close. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/75 "2015-01-17T05:44:58Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > So what are all those people working in Silicon Valley doing? > > The problem with the doom-and-gloomers is that they never predict the jobs that are _created_ by automation. 20 years ago who would have thought we’d have jobs at Facebook, Hulu, and Snapchat? Take the example of online travel agencies (e.g. Expedia): sure, plenty of travel agents have lost their jobs. Some of those are made up for by the jobs at the OTAs. Much more importantly, OTAs have made travel easier and _less expensive_. The result is that more people travel which leads to more jobs in the travel industry. So yeah, travel agents lost their jobs but the money that went into their salaries just moved to other people **and** we get to travel more. This is a win. Facebook is a good example of what I’m talking about. It is a company that e[mployed a little over 8000 people in September 2014](http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/). It had [revenues of $3.2 billion](http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/facebook-q3-2014/) in the third quarter of 2014. So we’re talking $10 billion in annual revenues (as I think $3.2 was a high for them I lopped off about two billion to be conservative). That’s a little more than a million dollars in revenue, per employee (based on 8,500 employees, a little more than they actually had, but once again, being conservative). Imagine what they’d make if they had 80,000 employees! General Motors currently has about that number of workers: about 75,000. In [1970 they had 400,000 workers](http://blog.mlive.com/flintjournal/opinion/2007/09/painful_numbers_behind_the_uaw.html). You know what replaced a lot of those workers? Robots and automation. GM was one of the early adapters. But … every One Percenter is gonna be an adapter, sooner or later. And the rest of us … we’ll be unemployed. And unemployable. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/76 "2015-01-17T05:55:51Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > Will anything alleviate the massive Human suffering this will cause? I think the only way out is [Basic Income](http://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/). I expect conservatives to have enough political and economic power to make it unlikely to be adopted until that massive human suffering you speak of occurs. I’m hoping to avoid mass die-offs, but I can see a lot of One Percenters not being interested in avoiding them at all. But the timelines could be off, or the corporations could see the writing on the wall and advocate for a Basic Income so people will have money to buy their products and services. I’m not expecting a lot in the way of foresight here, though … companies seem very oriented toward the short term nowadays. ---
**Author:** ![Rick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9f8e36/32.png) [@Rick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/77 "2015-01-17T05:57:01Z")
> [@meanoldman](#): > > Automobile mechanics could be greatly reduced in number if all electric automobiles really start selling. Similar to what has already happened to shops specializing in “tune-ups”. Or similar to TV and computer (server and SAN, for example) repair. Pop it open and snap in the failing part replacement. > > Automobile body shops / collision repair. If “self-driving” cars also become the norm, there will almost certainly be fewer accidents. Don’t forget somebody has to fix the robots. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/78 "2015-01-17T06:15:55Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > General Motors currently has about that number of workers: about 75,000. In [1970 they had 400,000 workers](http://blog.mlive.com/flintjournal/opinion/2007/09/painful_numbers_behind_the_uaw.html). > > You know what replaced a lot of those workers? > > Robots and automation. A huge number of those workers are gone because of spinoffs and sales of divisions to other companies: ``` United States GM Defense 1950–2003 was once part of General Motors Diesel Division and as General Dynamics Land Systems division of General Dynamics United States Electro Motive Division of General Motors was also once part of General Motors Diesel Division and now known as Electro-Motive Diesel United States Detroit Diesel sold to Penske Corporation; broken up and portion sold to the former DaimlerChrysler AG (now Daimler AG); now part of Daimler AG Canada Diesel Division of General Motors of Canada Limited spun off and later acquired by General Motors Canada as Diesel Division of General Motors of Canada Limited United States EDS – Electronic Data Systems United States Delco Remy (1918–1994) - spun off United States Magnaquench (–1994) - spun off United States Hughes Electronics sold to News Corporation in 2003 United States 1999 GM spun off its parts making operations as Delphi ``` > **[General Motors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors#Spin-offs)** > > General Motors Company (GM) is an American multinational automotive manufacturing company headquartered in Detroit, Michigan, United States. The company is most known for owning and manufacturing four automobile brands: Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, and Cadillac. By total sales, it has continuously been the largest automaker in the United States, and was the largest in the world for 77 years before losing the top spot to Toyota in 2008. > General Motors operates manufacturing plants in eight countries.... Also note that in 1970 GM was the dominant automobile manufacturer in the world–it no longer is. On rechecking the Wikipedia articles says: “General Motors employs 212,000 people and does business in more than 120 countries.”, not 75,000. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/79 "2015-01-17T07:02:43Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > General Motors currently has about that number of workers: about 75,000. In [1970 they had 400,000 workers](http://blog.mlive.com/flintjournal/opinion/2007/09/painful_numbers_behind_the_uaw.html). > > You know what replaced a lot of those workers? > > Robots and automation. GM was one of the early adapters. But … every One Percenter is gonna be an adapter, sooner or later. And the rest of us … we’ll be unemployed. And unemployable. So why didn’t we see a rise in unemployment starting the in the 70’s? If you were right we’d see a steady rise in unemployment as people are put out of work. That hasn’t happened. I’ve given my reason: automation frees up people to do other work. A while ago I came across a [Life Magazine from 1963](http://www.lifemagazineconnection.com/LIFE-Magazines-1960s/LIFE-Magazines-1963/1963-July-19-LIFE-Magazine-GREECE-Art-Rodeo-Clown). One of the main articles was titled _Impact of Automation: Its Accelerating Effects have Pushed Our Society to the Point of No Return._. It was sounding the exact same alarm as you: automation was coming into manufacturing and labor leaders were sure that debilitating unemployment was coming, as high as 20%. And it never happened. There was never even a noticeable blip on employment (other than the usual fluctuations). I’m not concerned. The one thing I might concede is that automation possibly makes it harder for people with below-average intelligence to find a high-paying job. I haven’t seen any evidence that it does, however. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/80 "2015-01-17T12:17:11Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I think the only way out is [Basic Income](http://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/). I expect conservatives to have enough political and economic power to make it unlikely to be adopted until that massive human suffering you speak of occurs. I’m hoping to avoid mass die-offs, but I can see a lot of One Percenters not being interested in avoiding them at all. But the timelines could be off, or the corporations could see the writing on the wall and advocate for a Basic Income so people will have money to buy their products and services. I’m not expecting a lot in the way of foresight here, though … companies seem very oriented toward the short term nowadays. Not gonna happen. “More” is a One Percenter’s favorite word. And even unlimited wealth & energy is “too little to share”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530.md?page=5)