# Psychics fail scientific test. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 31, 2012, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448 "2012-10-31T16:07:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Indian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c0e974/32.png) [@Indian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indian)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/101 "2012-11-04T08:32:31Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > I think I have seen psychic ability in action, but I don’t know that it could be tested as psychic ability, or if it’s just extraordinary (but not extrasensory) perception. > > The scene: A high school brain bowl (or something like that) > The person: Kid on my son’s team, also a good friend of my son (for years) > The situation: I had seen this kid in action before, and he was good. He excelled at Mathletics and got medals at Science Olympiad and History Bowl. But in this case they were doing sort of a game-show deal where the first person to hit the buzzer got the first shot at the answer (not unusual) but when the person hit the buzzer, the questioner stopped reading the question and it had to be answered right then. If the first buzzer failed, he would go on and read the rest of the question. > > It got really strange. It got to be like this kid had the answer sheet, and had memorized it. Or like someone was whispering the answers in his ear, which also didn’t happen. > > Questioner: In this story by Edgar Allen BZZZT > Kid: The Telltale Heart. > Q: Correct. In this painting by American artist BZZZT > K: A pitchfork. > Q (looking a little uncertain) Uh…In the following problem, find for x. If d is equal to BZZT! > K: (correct answer, I have no idea) > > And it went on in that vein for quite awhile. Eventually the other team started buzzing early too, and got some right, but mostly missed them. > > It wasn’t like the organizers said, “You will be asked some questions from the following gigantic pool of learning and American culture” although they were all things that high-school kids, particularly smart ones, should be able to know or figure out. > > I was sitting next to the kid’s mom, and I said, “How is he doing that?” She just shook her head. > > So in the car on the way home I asked him how he managed to answer those questions, particularly the math questions, without hearing the whole question. And he gave me this look. And said, “I heard the whole question.” His mom and I looked at each other and his little sister did the “Twilight Zone” theme, which made him say, “What, didn’t the rest of you hear the whole question?” > > His mother said no, we hadn’t. Then she said, to me, “He kinda does this all the time.” > > He said, “Well, I was really concentrating. And I did hear it.” Where is he now? Has he demonstrated such abilities elsewhere? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/102 "2012-11-04T12:04:49Z")
Oh look, another 'Peter tries to appeal to…someone. > [@Peter\_Morris](#): > > Okey, folks, just to explain what Misko is doing here. This is a technique he has employed numerous times before, and I’ve fallen for it, but not this time. > > The type of test that Miskatonic likes, are run by the worst pseudo-skeptics, and generally full of fraud. They aren’t real scientific tests of a claim, they are attempts to trip up the psychic in any way possible, through trickery. When anyone points out the fraud, Miskotonic (and others) pulls out the canard that _both parties agreed to the test_. which he thinks overcomes all objections. It doesn’t, and the fraud is still obvious. > > In an attempt to point out the flaw in his claim, I have cited a counter example. CSICOP tested an astrologer, both parties agreed to the test, and the astrologer won. The test was poorly designed. What this proves is that a test can be agreed by both sides, and still be faulty. Your problem is that is not what happened. No matter how much you try to twist reality this is not the course of events. The results are not as you describe it. You are lying, pure and simple. > [@](#): > > Miskatonic has no answer to this, and it’s making him livid. Actually, I have a very good answer: You are not telling the truth about what happened. > [@](#): > > And so, he tries to distract attention away by arguing trivial points about the meaning of words. He objects to the tested claim being called Astrology. He objects that CSICOP wasn’t actually called that yet. Actually, I object to you calling it a ‘test of an astrologer’. It wasn’t. I’ve explained what it was several times above. You just don’t like it because you’ll lose your precious little straw-man to beat up. > [@](#): > > I refuse to argue with him. If he thinks that [The Mars Effect](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mars_Effect)doesn’t count as astrology, then he can call it what he likes. I never said that the Mars Effect was not astrologer. What I said was that Gauquelin did not consider himself an astrologer. No more so that PEAR labs, who tested for psychic abilities, consiered themselves to be Sylvia Brown psychics. > [@](#): > > I’m not going to argue about whose word is better. It just doesn’t matter. > > All this is, is a feeble attempt to distract away from a point that he just cannot answer. My information comes from primary sources that centered around this event and those involved in the aftermath. Jim Lippard, Suitbert Ertel, Bruce Hutchinson, all would find Peter’s description of the events wrong. He doesn’t like that, so he tries to twist and bend facts to suit his version. For those who do want to learn more about the events, I would advise Googling Jim Lippard’s chronology of the Mars Effect. Its a rich text file. You can also ask questions of Lippard himself (I think his email is in the file), who could put you in contact with Ertel and others. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/103 "2012-11-04T14:44:26Z")
> [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > Your problem is that is not what happened. No matter how much you try to twist reality this is not the course of events. The results are not as you describe it. You are lying, pure and simple. We have a rule against personal insults, which includes “you are a liar.” My understanding of the rule is that “you are lying” is considered synonymous. Don’t do this again. I have tossed a coin between closing this thread and moving it to GD – the latter won. The GD mods may choose to close it, of course. **twickster** , MPSIMS moderator ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/104 "2012-11-04T15:03:30Z")
Miskatonic, please try to understand. I was making a point about a canard that you (and others) often use. You claim that a paranormal test is proved to be fair if both parties agree to the protocol. Well, that is wrong. I’ve given a counter-example to demonstrate that. Try and answer that point, if you can. I refuse to play your silly word games. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/105 "2012-11-04T15:17:21Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > I think I have seen psychic ability in action, but I don’t know that it could be tested as psychic ability, or if it’s just extraordinary (but not extrasensory) perception. > > The scene: A high school brain bowl (or something like that) > The person: Kid on my son’s team, also a good friend of my son (for years) > The situation: I had seen this kid in action before, and he was good. He excelled at Mathletics and got medals at Science Olympiad and History Bowl. But in this case they were doing sort of a game-show deal where the first person to hit the buzzer got the first shot at the answer (not unusual) but when the person hit the buzzer, the questioner stopped reading the question and it had to be answered right then. If the first buzzer failed, he would go on and read the rest of the question. > > It got really strange. It got to be like this kid had the answer sheet, and had memorized it. Or like someone was whispering the answers in his ear, which also didn’t happen. > > Questioner: In this story by Edgar Allen BZZZT > Kid: The Telltale Heart. > Q: Correct. In this painting by American artist BZZZT > K: A pitchfork. > Q (looking a little uncertain) Uh…In the following problem, find for x. If d is equal to BZZT! > K: (correct answer, I have no idea) > > And it went on in that vein for quite awhile. Eventually the other team started buzzing early too, and got some right, but mostly missed them. It sounds to me like he had practiced a lot. I know personally, the more I do crosswords, the faster I can fill in the answers for the easier clues. Sometimes I can even fill in words without looking at the clue, or only looking at half the clue. But it’s not because I’m psychic. It’s because I know the sorts of clues crossword writers use, and the sort of answers that are necessary to make crosswords fit. Similarly, the kid probably knew that if they were asking a question about a story by Edgar Allen Poe, the answer is going to be _The Tell-Tale Heart_ 80% of the time, _The Fall of the House of Usher_ 15% of the time, and maybe something else if the question is a real stumper. And if they’re asking a question about an object in an American painting, the first thing that comes to mind is a pitchfork, because that’s the most famous object in an American painting. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/106 "2012-11-04T16:48:20Z")
> [@Peter\_Morris](#): > > Miskatonic, please try to understand. I was making a point about a canard that you (and others) often use. Yes, Peter, I know exactly what you were trying to do. Trouble is, when the example you give is completely different from how you present it your point fails utterly. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/107 "2012-11-04T17:15:55Z")
I will let the readers decide whether **Peter Morris** or **Mr. Miskatonic** have had the better of their argument, thus far. That is because that discussion is now ended. Whatever the merits of this thread, (and I do not see any), rehashing old arguments with bitter words is not among them. Take it to The BBQ Pit or off board. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/108 "2012-11-04T18:01:43Z")
But no one said “plate,” or “shrimp” or “plate o’ shrimp”? ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/109 "2012-11-04T20:20:52Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > I think I have seen psychic ability in action, but I don’t know that it could be tested as psychic ability, or if it’s just extraordinary (but not extrasensory) perception. > > The scene: A high school brain bowl (or something like that) > The person: Kid on my son’s team, also a good friend of my son (for years) > The situation: I had seen this kid in action before, and he was good. He excelled at Mathletics and got medals at Science Olympiad and History Bowl. But in this case they were doing sort of a game-show deal where the first person to hit the buzzer got the first shot at the answer (not unusual) but when the person hit the buzzer, the questioner stopped reading the question and it had to be answered right then. If the first buzzer failed, he would go on and read the rest of the question. > > It got really strange. It got to be like this kid had the answer sheet, and had memorized it. Or like someone was whispering the answers in his ear, which also didn’t happen. > > Questioner: In this story by Edgar Allen BZZZT > Kid: The Telltale Heart. > Q: Correct. In this painting by American artist BZZZT > K: A pitchfork. > Q (looking a little uncertain) Uh…In the following problem, find for x. If d is equal to BZZT! > K: (correct answer, I have no idea) > > And it went on in that vein for quite awhile. Eventually the other team started buzzing early too, and got some right, but mostly missed them. > > It wasn’t like the organizers said, “You will be asked some questions from the following gigantic pool of learning and American culture” although they were all things that high-school kids, particularly smart ones, should be able to know or figure out. > > I was sitting next to the kid’s mom, and I said, “How is he doing that?” She just shook her head. > > So in the car on the way home I asked him how he managed to answer those questions, particularly the math questions, without hearing the whole question. And he gave me this look. And said, “I heard the whole question.” His mom and I looked at each other and his little sister did the “Twilight Zone” theme, which made him say, “What, didn’t the rest of you hear the whole question?” > > His mother said no, we hadn’t. Then she said, to me, “He kinda does this all the time.” > > He said, “Well, I was really concentrating. And I did hear it.” > [@Trepa\_Mayfield](#): > > It sounds to me like he had practiced a lot. I know personally, the more I do crosswords, the faster I can fill in the answers for the easier clues. Sometimes I can even fill in words without looking at the clue, or only looking at half the clue. But it’s not because I’m psychic. It’s because I know the sorts of clues crossword writers use, and the sort of answers that are necessary to make crosswords fit. > > Similarly, the kid probably knew that if they were asking a question about a story by Edgar Allen Poe, the answer is going to be _The Tell-Tale Heart_ 80% of the time, _The Fall of the House of Usher_ 15% of the time, and maybe something else if the question is a real stumper. And if they’re asking a question about an object in an American painting, the first thing that comes to mind is a pitchfork, because that’s the most famous object in an American painting. I am a remarkably good test taker. I can frequently pick the right answer from a multiple choice question without looking at the question. I cannot do this with math questions. It requires too much precision unless one of the answers is one or zero. If he was doing it with math questions then there is something fishy going on. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/110 "2012-11-04T20:24:25Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I am a remarkably good test taker. I can frequently pick the right answer from a multiple choice question without looking at the question. I cannot do this with math questions. It requires too much precision unless one of the answers is one or zero. If he was doing it with math questions then there is something fishy going on. Not necessarily. He may be good at doing the same thing with math questions. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/111 "2012-11-04T20:52:54Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > I think I have seen psychic ability in action, but I don’t know that it could be tested as psychic ability, or if it’s just extraordinary (but not extrasensory) perception. > > \ Coincidence, most likely. Consider how many trillions of trillions of unlikely events that are possible, although of extremely low likelyhood. Trillions of those will seem to have some ‘psychic’ significance. Although the likelyhood of _each_ is extremely low, there are so many _possible_ in a given day, to a given person, that a few are _bound_ to occur to every person, at least occasionally. Consider my ‘psychic powers’ story: I was babysitting my sister’s kid, and was bored out of my skull. ‘Hmm, here’s today’s newspaper in the mail that just arrived. I think I’ll read it.’ I read all the stuff I usually read, and still had hours to kill. ‘Hmm, let’s read the stuff I always skip. Like the Obits.’ There, while I was still in my mid 20s, was someone I went to high school with. [Twilight Zone Theme] I _never_ read the Obits, but the one time I do, there’s someone I know, who died extremely young. What are the odds?[/TZT] So I ran it as what’s known in the sciences as a [Fermi problem](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem), AKA “Back of the envelope calculation”. It was a very good way to relieve my boredom. I came up with the result that this particular ‘psychic phenomenon’ _should_ occur to approximately 5 people in the world, each and every day\*, purely by chance. So now the question becomes: Why should I be ‘special’ so that I couldn’t be one of those random chance 5 for today, rather than ‘do I have psychic powers’? The same question applies to the kid in **Hilarity N. Suze** ’s story. Shit like that happens by chance _all the time!_ What’s so special about that kid that we should prefer the ‘psychic phenomenon’ explanation over the ‘random chance’ explanation? Does the kid ever repeat the performance? _Can_ the kid repeat the performance on command? If not, then the ‘random chance’ hypothesis is the preferred explanation, for simplicity’s sake. If you want to propose the ‘psychic’ explanation, then the burden of evidence is on you. Show us some reason to think that might be _better_ than the ‘random chance’ explanation. The ‘random chance’ explanation handled my ‘reading the obits and finding someone you know’ _problem_ quite handily. It wasn’t a problem if you ran the numbers. - That’s an ‘order of magnitude calculation’. Take it to mean anywhere between 0.5/day (1 every 2 days), and 50/day. It also wouldn’t surprise me to find out that it was 2 orders off, or 1/20days to 500/day. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/112 "2012-11-04T21:06:33Z")
> [@Zyada](#): > > . . . I can’t even tell which side Peter Morris or Princhester is supposed to be supporting. > [@tomndebb](#): > > I will let the readers decide whether **Peter Morris** or **Mr. Miskatonic** have had the better of their argument, thus far. . . . I’m with **Zayda** : the arguments in this thread have become so painfully involute, I can’t tell what exactly is being promoted. I can’t tell who has won, and I can’t even tell whom I would agree with! Maybe neither. The quark argument was one of the weakest arguments I’ve ever seen. There are a lot of things we haven’t discovered yet; of course they exist. We just don’t have evidence for them. To argue that they don’t exist is asinine; to argue that some specific thing does exist solely on that basis is asinine too! I cannot comprehend why anyone would be banned from alluding to James Randi’s challenge; I see Randi as having successfully debunked certain kinds and classes of psychic powers. The ones with objective, large-scale, measurable effects on reality. Randi and his group refuse to examine certain kinds of claims of psychic effects: the kinds that can’t be measured under controlled conditions. The classic of these are the people who say that they can disperse clouds in the sky. People who sense a meaningful level of signal over noise in the number of coincidences in their lives also fall into this category. (The other day, for no reason, I thought about a song from Jesus Christ Superstar. Later in the day, I heard the public radio interview with Stephen Colbert, where he sings exactly that song! WOW! Coincidence! Some people would find it significant and meaningful. Others – me, for instance – would say, “Meh. Big deal. Of the hundreds of thousands of things that I see, think, do, hear, eat, meet, and have in the course of a month, two happened to be the same. BFD!”) (Yeah! Stephen Colbert can sing!) ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/113 "2012-11-04T21:28:27Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > (Yeah! Stephen Colbert can sing!) Cite? ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/114 "2012-11-04T21:41:21Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I see Randi as having successfully debunked certain kinds and classes of psychic powers. The ones with objective, large-scale, measurable effects on reality. Randi and his group refuse to examine certain kinds of claims of psychic effects: the kinds that can’t be measured under controlled conditions. Wait. What? Under controlled conditions, we can detect subatomic particles. What do you imagine that: 1. doesn’t have a measurable effect on reality, and 2. can’t be measured under controlled conditions? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Bird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Little\_Bird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Bird)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/115 "2012-11-04T21:47:35Z")
Keep in mind – a “one in a billion” occurrence happens to 7 people a day. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/116 "2012-11-04T21:48:46Z")
And confirmation bias is an amazing thing. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/117 "2012-11-04T21:59:59Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > So why exactly does Randi still have his money?:dubious: Maybe a million dollars isn’t enough money to risk spending the rest of your life strapped to a lab table and wired like a Christmas tree, with your brain sitting in a nutrient vat while “top men” try to figure out how it works? ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/118 "2012-11-04T22:02:53Z")
> [@Little\_Bird](#): > > Keep in mind – a “one in a billion” occurrence happens to 7 people a day. Yeah. See my earlier post, where it comes out to 5 people a day should experience my ‘spooky experience’… ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/119 "2012-11-04T23:40:28Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Maybe a million dollars isn’t enough money to risk spending the rest of your life strapped to a lab table and wired like a Christmas tree, with your brain sitting in a nutrient vat while “top men” try to figure out how it works? Well, that explains it then. ETA: a Christmas tree? Serious? ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448/120 "2012-11-05T00:37:46Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I cannot comprehend why anyone would be banned from alluding to James Randi’s challenge; Long story, but if you need to raise the question, take it to ATMB, not this thread. [/Moderating] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/psychics-fail-scientific-test/639448.md?page=7)