It’s true that the USN torpedoes were shite, but there were other problems as well.
How much more success would there have been only changing the torpedoes but not fixing the other issues is the premise for a good debate.
First, while the issues with the Mark 14 torpedo is well known, early PT boats were outfitted with the older Mark 8 torpedoes which had their own set of issues, including their smaller warhead of less than 500 lbs.
Another problem was with the black powder charge for launching the torpedoes from the launchers, where the humidity of the South Pacific caused frequent misfires. Sometimes flashes from the charge or burning oil in the tubes would give away the PT boat position to the enemy. Dry runs and other malfunctions also occurred.
In 1943, the Mark 8 were started to be replaced by the Mark 13, designed as aerial torps. They weren’t ideal for PTs but their lighter weight while having a larger warhead, combined with the ability to be dropped from launching racks rather than requiring torpedo tubes saved more than 1,400 lbs each.
For the question of given better torpedoes, how much more effective would they have been? Obviously, they would have had some more successes. There were a number of attacks, especially on destroyers, which possible torpedo failures may have contributed to unsuccessful results. Other attacks were broken up when the enemy discovered their position from the flashes.
However, there were other issues which may have been more significant. One of the obvious flaws was the lack of radar for many boats. In the sea battles around Guadalcanal, the USN lacked the resources to maintain a constant presence in the immediate vicinity at night. The US ruled the seas during the day because of the air superiority, but lacked the number of ships to control the nights.
PT boats were brought in to help with the coverage. This could have been the perfect opportunity to have made an even more significant contribution to the war. The appropriately nicknamed Iron Bottom Sound could only be approached from narrow channels to the east and around Savo Island to the west. The reinforcements to the IJA and supplies were delivered to a limited geographical area not far from the PT base.
The lack of radar, bad coordination, inferior radios, inadequate training and insufficient numbers all contributed to limiting the results from the PTs.
The PT program just wasn’t advanced enough to take advantage of the perfect opportunity. In a classical would’ves, could’ves, should’ves, had there been two squadrons of better trained, fully radar equipped boats, more of the shellings of Henderson Field and the reinforcements and supplies would have been prevented.