# Pujols and Cards let contract deadline pass **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 17, 2011, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648 "2011-02-17T00:23:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/21 "2011-02-17T18:10:28Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > But, look at it from Pujols’ point of view: What’s the urgency for him to sign now, rather than wait until after the season? Economically at least, there isn’t much. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea for the Cardinals to assume he won’t negotiate and make little effort to get a deal done. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/22 "2011-02-17T18:48:36Z")
What would be a “fair” value for Pujols, in a vacuum, just based on his projected WAR? Neglect dWAR, though he’s by all accounts a good 1st baseman defensively. Assume also that you’d want to compensate for his first 3 years where he drastically outperformed his deal. I see articles like [this one at fangraphs,](http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dollar-value-of-a-win/) suggesting that Chone Figgins’s +6.1 WAR season would’ve required $27.4 million to replace, and I have a hard time putting a value on Pujols’s worth. Here’s an article from the end of 2009,[regressing salaries to WAR](http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/wins_above_repl.php) for free agents, arbitration guys, and pre-arb guys. Another few things to consider for a long (\>6 year) deal are: 1) How good is baseball at ferreting out HGH usage? I have no problem paying Albert at 39, if he’s—secretly—using HGH to maintain his youthful ability to recover from stress. (Oh that’s right, no one uses PEDs in baseball anymore, since drug testing is so good. My bad.) 1. How old is Pujols really? Or are rumors that he’s a tad older than 31 in the same class as Obama birth certificate rants? EDIT: [An article asking the fangraphs’ commentariat to place a value on Pujols](http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-much-would-you-pay-for-albert-pujols/) One thing that most of the projections are leaving out is time-value of money. They also aren’t accounting for monetary inflation in future years very well. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/23 "2011-02-17T21:01:06Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > What would be a “fair” value for Pujols, in a vacuum, just based on his projected WAR? Neglect dWAR, though he’s by all accounts a good 1st baseman defensively. Assume also that you’d want to compensate for his first 3 years where he drastically outperformed his deal. I see articles like [this one at fangraphs,](http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dollar-value-of-a-win/) suggesting that Chone Figgins’s +6.1 WAR season would’ve required $27.4 million to replace, and I have a hard time putting a value on Pujols’s worth. Here’s an article from the end of 2009,[regressing salaries to WAR](http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/wins_above_repl.php) for free agents, arbitration guys, and pre-arb guys. > > Another few things to consider for a long (\>6 year) deal are: 1) How good is baseball at ferreting out HGH usage? I have no problem paying Albert at 39, if he’s—secretly—using HGH to maintain his youthful ability to recover from stress. > > (Oh that’s right, no one uses PEDs in baseball anymore, since drug testing is so good. My bad.) > > 1. How old is Pujols really? Or are rumors that he’s a tad older than 31 in the same class as Obama birth certificate rants? > > EDIT: [An article asking the fangraphs’ commentariat to place a value on Pujols](http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-much-would-you-pay-for-albert-pujols/) One thing that most of the projections are leaving out is time-value of money. They also aren’t accounting for monetary inflation in future years very well. Do they also consider how paying a huge salary limits a team’s options in other areas? ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2011, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/24 "2011-02-24T01:46:18Z")
Oh, **Shit**. It looks like Adam Wainwright needs Tommy John and will be out for the year. Posted here mostly because we don’t seem to have a general baseball thread yet, but also because the Extreme Pessimist response is that without Wainwright, the Cardinals will have a lackluster, losing season, and this will make Albert Pujols not want to stay with the team after this year. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2011, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/25 "2011-02-24T01:58:02Z")
I don’t know if this could tip the scales one way or the other - probably not - but it can’t help. It’s a really shitty break for the Cardinals. As far as Pujols goes: I have seen it written that the Cardinals really don’t believe they can let their payroll go much higher than where it is now. They don’t have that many opportunities to increase their revenue, since they’re already in a new stadium and already play to sellout crowds. I don’t know if they have other alternatives. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2011, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/26 "2011-02-24T02:10:32Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I have seen it written that the Cardinals really don’t believe they can let their payroll go much higher than where it is now. They don’t have that many opportunities to increase their revenue, since they’re already in a new stadium and already play to sellout crowds. I don’t know if they have other alternatives. Well, the owners could take less profit and give it to Pujols. It’s up to them. Frankly, I don’t care; I don’t like the Cards anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2011, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648/27 "2011-02-24T02:26:01Z")
Hehehe. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pujols-and-cards-let-contract-deadline-pass/571648.md?page=1)