It’s not like this is going to happen. That kind of redeployment takes planning and time. By November it will be a moot point and nobody will be going anywhere. Maybe a couple of companies get TDY in Poland for a few weeks. That’s all.
You’re not wrong and your points are well-taken. We live in a post Cold War world and perhaps in a world that requires a realignment of forces. Drawing down troops in Germany isn’t necessarily problematic, but the way he’s done it absolutely is. He’s behaving capriciously and attacking allies with little or no provocation. We have a lot more in common with Germany in terms of political and economic interests than we do with Putin’s unelected, corrupt government in Russia. We’re encouraging more police actions and defense actions in former Soviet territory, and it’s unclear how we would respond.
Right now, yes. Depending on how the election goes in November (or doesn’t) that could change.
The problem with making decisions which are later cancelled is that you lose soft power and it takes a long time to repair gaps in credibility.
We would have to have credibility to be able to have gaps in it.
That ship has sailed. Then it sank.
Yeah I really don’t know what the optimal policy is here. But the messaging and execution are . . . wanting.
This is where the much hated bureaucracy exerts its influence. Military planners will slow the implementation of Trump’s desire to sometime in 2021. The incoming president will cancel Trump’s directive.
Two problems with that.
First, while I think it’s likely that Trump will lose in November, it’s not guaranteed. He might be President for four more years.
Second, even if Trump is booted out next January and his reckless decision is never carried out, the message has still been sent. Germany and other countries have been told that their national security is subject to the whim of some future president, who may or may not decide to honor American treaties. The possibility that America won’t stand by its allies works to Russian advantage in its dealing with those countries.
Might as well tell SACEUR to go to Moscow and surrender his…sword…pistol…iPad…whatever Generals carry these days.
Poland is the absolute worst terrain on planet Earth to defend. Flat as a pancake, with the attacker enjoying interior lines of communication, the defender having to spread themselves across a huge area.
If they want to defend Poland, they need a LOT more troops, deployed in some depth behind some enormous fortifications.
Dude, the second has always been the case, ever since Kietal signed the German instrument of surrender. Europeans leaders try their hardest to not think about it, most American presidents have the common sense and grace not to bring it up, or couch it in palatable terms.
Oh, absolutely. Not that Trump cares a whit for NATO, but I was just trying to make the point that there’s a lot of latitude to move troops elsewhere from Germany without necessarily impacting NATO’s combat readiness.
I was actually kind of surprised at how few troops are actually there these days. Used to be (like 1990-ish), there were something like 3-4 entire armored/mechanized divisions stationed in West Germany, with a couple of corps headquarters and a bunch of independent armor and artillery brigades, as well as an entire numbered Air Force (something like 6-7 combat wings), and all the support troops needed for that, as well as another 3-4 US-stationed divisions with pre-positioned equipment in Germany (i.e. the men hopped on a plane and flew over in time of war, because their tanks, guns, etc… were already there).
Defending Poland is hard for conventional troops. It remains to be seen how limited a role conventional troops would play if push came to shove. Is that not so?
How much of that equipment is still there and ready to go? No real need to keep lots of troops in Germany these days, since any Russian build-up would be instantly apparent and give us time to deploy from the US.
I think.
The whole purpose of NATO was to keep Russia out, America in, and Germany down. Now Germany has taken over europe, the europeans don’t want America there, and Russia is too poor to mess with any major country in europe. It is an alliance without a purpose and the whole thing needs to be rethought.
I’m pretty sure, but I don’t have a lot of citations for this, that we still have some equipment pre-positioned in Europe, but not entire divisions worth like in the Cold War.
As best I can tell, it’s a couple of brigades worth of equipment under some sort of scheme named “APS-2”.
Many Germans are unhappy with the idea.