# Put your mouth where your mouth is! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 31, 2012, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462 "2012-10-31T17:37:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/81 "2012-11-03T20:49:46Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > InTrade currently has this event (Romney over 300 EV) at about 25% right now. Because of this difference in odds between intrade and your bet, you could arbitrage your risk, and pretty much come out on top no matter what. > > Just saying… But I’m not betting anything. I’m just agreeing to donate if it happens. Klaatu isn’t going to have to do a darned thing for me if he’s wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Hellestal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3ab097/32.png) [@Hellestal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hellestal)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/82 "2012-11-03T23:28:43Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > Ok, deal. Post over the weekend if you can, as will I and we can confirm how this will work. > > Doctors Without Borders? Hell, I would donate to them anyway. Can you come up with some really far left wacko charity that will really piss me off if I lose? 😉 Planned Parenthood is fine, too. Either works. I’d be fine donating to Intrepid Fallen Heroes, or the NRA, or another charity of your choice. I can PayPal you the funds if I lose, or email you a confirmation receipt, whichever you’d prefer. You can email me a receipt if Romney is 300 or less, or PayPal, whichever works better for you. ---
**Author:** ![Hellestal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3ab097/32.png) [@Hellestal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hellestal)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/83 "2012-11-03T23:36:52Z")
Also: I’m upping my side of the bet to 300 dollars. You still pay 100 if you lose, I pay 300 if I lose. It’s possible there is a statistical bias against Romney in all the polls. But I seriously doubt it. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/84 "2012-11-04T02:28:07Z")
**Hellestal** and **drew** , ok done deal sounds good. Whoever wins can just donate directly to the charity. I will use a credit card myself. We can figure out confirmation. I trust you. Good luck to you both. I will post back tuesday eve or wednesday morn. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/85 "2012-11-04T02:42:23Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > But I’m not betting anything. I’m just agreeing to donate if it happens. Klaatu isn’t going to have to do a darned thing for me if he’s wrong. > [@Hellestal](#): > > Also: I’m upping my side of the bet to 300 dollars. You still pay 100 if you lose, I pay 300 if I lose. > > It’s possible there is a statistical bias against Romney in all the polls. But I seriously doubt it. I’m kind of amused that in a thread that started with a claim that Obama supporters weren’t really as confident in an Obama victory as they claimed, we have those supporters arbitrarily raising the odds against themselves, or even just offering to pay money if Romney wins with no need for someone to take the other side. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/86 "2012-11-04T03:19:13Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I’m kind of amused that in a thread that started with a claim that Obama supporters weren’t really as confident in an Obama victory as they claimed, we have those supporters arbitrarily raising the odds against themselves, or even just offering to pay money if Romney wins with no need for someone to take the other side. Just wait until I win and change my charity to Westboro Baptist…😛 ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/87 "2012-11-04T03:26:26Z")
Or maybe the Jack Dean Tyler Institute For Foreskin Awareness… ---
**Author:** ![regginbrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ba9def/32.png) [@regginbrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/regginbrow)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/88 "2012-11-04T20:41:00Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > InTrade currently has this event (Romney over 300 EV) at about 25% right now. Because of this difference in odds between intrade and your bet, you could arbitrage your risk, and pretty much come out on top no matter what. > > Just saying… Those Intrade odds are currently insane. There is a 22% chance of Romney getting 320+ electoral votes, but a 21.0% chance of 290, 18% of 300, and 17.4% of 310. First of all, as stated below, there is almost no chance of Romney getting 300+ votes, as that would require Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and every other battleground state, let alone an 18% chance. 320 would require both btw, and if you think there’s a 22% chance of this (ignoring the other inconsistencies, as 320+ is a subset of all the other situations and can’t in any sense have a higher probability than the larger set of outcomes), you are either a blind partisan or have no idea how to forecast these things. Secondly, this is the best example of how inefficient a market Intrade is. The reason this can happen is because there isn’t enough action on these bets for their probablilities to stabilize at reasonable and consistent values. The presidential winner should have more betting action and thus be more reasonable, but there definitely isn’t enough for it to be 100% efficient or accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/89 "2012-11-04T22:16:48Z")
> [@regginbrow](#): > > Those Intrade odds are currently insane. There is a 22% chance of Romney getting 320+ electoral votes, but a 21.0% chance of 290, 18% of 300, and 17.4% of 310. Wait, what? How is that possible? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/90 "2012-11-04T23:32:21Z")
RNATB: The markets are thin and have wide spreads. reggin was quoting the last trade. So you can sell 100 shares at 17.7% and buy 5 shares at 23.5%. Props to the participants in these bets. I urge them to reflect on their commitments on, say, Nov 15 after some of the hub-bub had died down. Betting can clarify one’s understanding. The Klaatu/Hellestal wager (301EV+ for Romney) puts 2 particularly dramatic perceptions of the world on the line. I’ll note that a 2:1 bet for Obama gives Romney a 33% chance which is close to where intrade is and above Nate’s 15% probability. That’s not the sort of spread that I’d be comfortable with if I was **Kimmy** , especially for heuristic purposes. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/91 "2012-11-05T11:48:53Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I thought you said 7 days after the election Hey \*\*Really \*\*… Do we have a deal??? After seven days of whining and excuses then silence until Inauguration day …ok? ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/92 "2012-11-05T21:03:25Z")
I for one never put anything where my mouth is, as I usually need to leave room to insert my foot. Besides, it’s like the first suitor in _The Merchant of Venice_, who was told that if he was wrong, he would have to convert to Christianity - there are some prices that are just too high. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/93 "2012-11-05T21:35:26Z")
Even with no upside, I’ll take the “bet”. Obama will win, and Dems will keep at least a “Biden majority” in the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimmy_Gibbler)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/94 "2012-11-05T22:18:08Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I’ll note that a 2:1 bet for Obama gives Romney a 33% chance which is close to where intrade is and above Nate’s 15% probability. That’s not the sort of spread that I’d be comfortable with if I was **Kimmy** , especially for heuristic purposes. I don’t know what you mean by “spread” (or “heuristic purposes”) in “That’s not the sort of spread that I’d be comfortable with … especially for heuristic purposes.” It can’t mean bid-offer spread. My odds conform with intrade’s, and right now, their spread is one cent (or less). Nate Silver is not an exchange, so there’s no spread there. I guess you mean “a plurality of predicted probabilities,” but in this case, my odds are self-serving: of the predicted probabilities out there, they match the most pessimistic (to Obama predictors, my side of the wager). Were I following NS, I should give 4:1 odds, rather than 2:1. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/95 "2012-11-07T05:01:43Z")
Kimmy\_Gibbler: Congratulations on your victory. If I believed that the true odds of an Obama re-election were 40%, betting 2:1 (or 33%) would give me modest expected profits. If I had something to prove (and therefore was loss-averse), I wouldn’t accept such a wager. Contrast with Hellestal. Say the odds of Romney gaining more than 300 EV were something under 5%, probably way under. Betting 2:1 or even 3:1 might make sense, especially to demonstrate a point. The “Spread” I was referring to was 40-33 in your case or 25-5 in Hellestal’s case. Frankly, I fear that’s the wrong way of thinking about it: I gotta review my expected value formulas. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/96 "2012-11-07T09:14:48Z")
Party at \*\*Kimmy\_Gibler’s \*\*house? Well, assuming the matter of a wager is actually honored, that is… ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/97 "2012-11-07T09:30:23Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > Party at \*\*Kimmy\_Gibler’s \*\*house? Well, assuming the matter of a wager is actually honored, that is… Of course it will dick-wad… unless maybe I get banned before **Kimmy** can send me the info. 😃 **Kimmy** … send me the info needed. Check or PayPal is fine with me. \*\* Really\*\* proved to be **Not All That Bright** or that confident in his man. I don’t think we ever had an understanding. \*\*SlackerInc \*\*did come through for the rest of the Obama crowd that was a little shy so I will be honoring that part of the bet. I assume it was for the original time period proposed. ---
**Author:** ![Hellestal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3ab097/32.png) [@Hellestal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hellestal)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/98 "2012-11-07T11:13:04Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > **Hellestal** and **drew** , ok done deal sounds good. Whoever wins can just donate directly to the charity. I will use a credit card myself. We can figure out confirmation. I trust you. I use gmail, same as my screen-name here, if you’d like to forward the email confirmation. Or you can just cut&paste the confirmation to this thread, removing the personal info at your discretion. Either Doctors Without Borders or Planned Parenthood is great. I appreciate that you put something on the line for your belief. Not everybody is willing to do that. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/99 "2012-11-07T17:47:33Z")
Klaatu, just like I promised: neener neener, you were wrong! Ok, that’s all that needed to be done to uphold our bet! Thanks for playing. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462/100 "2012-11-07T20:50:48Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Of course it will dick-wad… As if you didn’t have enough problems today, I’m giving you an official warning for this. You can’t insult other people outside the Pit. You’ve been here long enough to know that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/put-your-mouth-where-your-mouth-is/639462.md?page=6)