# Putin dies. What does that do for the war with Ukraine? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [January 18, 2023, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414 "2023-01-18T16:09:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2023, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/41 "2023-01-28T18:58:57Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I didn’t make that argument You didn’t make it _successfully_, but your post started with “I wouldn’t bet on that”, in response to me saying that Prigozhin is a lesser evil (with regard to the risk of nuclear deployment) than Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2023, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/42 "2023-01-28T19:01:55Z")
Your statement and my response were: > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > > [@Riemann](#): > > > > As awful as he is, it would still be better for the world if Putin died and Prigozhin replaced him. Prigozhin cares about money and power and being alive. Putin is dying and his legacy is irrevocably tied the war in Ukraine, so there’s a far greater risk that Putin says fuck the world and tries to deploy nukes. > > I wouldn’t bet on that. Prigozhin is the real authority behind the Wagner Group and he has an investment in maintaining control over the Donbas region and the Crimea. For any leader, pulling out of that conflict is going to look like weakness, and that is the worst quality in any Russian leader, far moreso than being corrupt, venal, or even incompetent. Nowhere in there did I say that “ Prigozhin is _more_ likely to deploy nuclear weapons than Putin” or any words to that effect. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2023, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/43 "2023-01-28T19:04:08Z")
I said that Prigozhin is less likely to deploy nukes than Putin. You replied: “I wouldn’t bet on that”. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2023, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/44 "2023-01-28T19:05:51Z")
How in your mind does that translate into “Prigozhin is _more_ likely to deploy nuclear weapons than Putin”? Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2023, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/45 "2023-01-29T17:07:31Z")
I don’t know, the author of that piece might be overreading how much power Prigozhin has and understating recent and public slights against the Wagner Group to put it in its place. He mentions Soledar but doesn’t really show how much the Wagner group was written out of the story. If Prigozhin is to be believed, Wagner did all the work and the Russian military took all the credit. That’s certainly how it reads in press releases from the Russian Ministry of Defense, it goes out of its way to spread credit for this ‘great victory’ in taking a small town to each and every possible branch of the Russian military but neglected to mention Wagner playing any role at all. Putin’s division of power amongst subordinates and setting up departments that compete with each other to perform the same function and to prevent any single person amassing enough power to be a threat to his position at the top is a story as old as dictatorships. The author correctly notes that Wagner recruited convicts from Russian prisons extrajudicially but doesn’t note that the Wagner group itself is illegal under Russian law, which forbids private military corporations. This of course doesn’t prevent Wagner from existing and being a PMC, but provides a useful sword of Damocles constantly hanging over Wagner’s head should Putin decide Prigozhin has gotten too big for his britches and decides to shut down Wagner. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2023, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/46 "2023-01-30T08:06:06Z")
Long and pessimistic think piece here: [https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/russian-emigrants-reckon-with-their-countrys-crimes-putin-war-ukraine](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/russian-emigrants-reckon-with-their-countrys-crimes-putin-war-ukraine) ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2023, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414/47 "2023-01-30T21:10:15Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > [Moscow, third Rome - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_third_Rome) that sounds surprisingly like “the 5th Beatle” … in the same “superfluous” way … just ever-so-more stressing (by means of the Streisand-effect) that there were only 4 Beatles. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-dies-what-does-that-do-for-the-war-with-ukraine/978414.md?page=2)