# Putin - the domestic politics side of the war

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion\
**Created:** [April 16, 2022, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905 "2022-04-16T02:12:09Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![Bonum\_Legatum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bonum_legatum/32/6183_2.png) [@Bonum\_Legatum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bonum_Legatum)\
**Post date:** [September 22, 2022, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/41 "2022-09-22T18:43:45Z")

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Not quite “domestic politics”, but wouldn’t this be the perfect time to start feeding disinformation about the cronies? As is a VERY crude example: “Cell phone recordings indicate, Mr. so-and-so has started to quietly reach out to western governments - asking if he would be acceptable as a replacement after a coup.”

On the other hand, maybe feeding the paranoia wouldn’t be a good idea.

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**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\
**Post date:** [September 25, 2022, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/42 "2022-09-25T23:09:18Z")

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In a speedrun of not doing what they said they were going to do, men who got arrested at protests against mobilization are being given mobilization papers. [Russia drafts anti-war protestors into military](https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-protests-partial-mobilization-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)

> Police detained the protesters across 38 cities in Russia on Wednesday, according to figures released shortly after midnight by independent monitoring group OVD-Info. The group’s spokeswoman Maria Kuznetsova told CNN by phone that at at least four police stations in Moscow, some of the protesters arrested by riot police were being drafted directly into Russia’s military.

Or for a more lively reading of the events, its mentioned at about 1:30 in this video

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/q02QJ6NBhu0/maxresdefault.jpg "MOBILIZATION in Russia: panic, protests and people leaving") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q02QJ6NBhu0)

He also notes that the decree Putin signed doesn’t actually specify who is going to be drafted.

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**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\
**Post date:** [September 26, 2022, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/43 "2022-09-26T00:11:52Z")

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Reports now of mobilized units being sent to Ukraine after _one day_ of training. Granted these reports may turn out to be unfounded, but if true…wow.

[https://zona-media.translate.goog/chronicle/214?\_x\_tr\_sl=uk&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=en&\_x\_tr\_pto=wapp#49986](https://zona-media.translate.goog/chronicle/214?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp#49986)

(Link is to google translation of page despite the Russian preview)

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**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\
**Post date:** [September 26, 2022, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/44 "2022-09-26T00:20:19Z")

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> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#):
>
> Also noted that some of the anti-conscription protestors being arrested are being immediately inducted into the army. What could possibly go wrong?

Considering what we hear about the culture inside Russian training, this is more about let’s send these people to be abused and brutalized by people who like doing that to others.

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**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\
**Post date:** [September 26, 2022, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/45 "2022-09-26T04:33:42Z")

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> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#):
>
> Edit: Also noted that some of the anti-conscription protestors being arrested are being immediately inducted into the army. What could possibly go wrong?

My apologies for posting something you’d already posted, I either didn’t see it, didn’t remember it or possibly missed the edit.

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**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\
**Post date:** [September 26, 2022, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/46 "2022-09-26T15:00:58Z")

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No need at all to apologize; threads move so fast that it’s easy to miss when someone else has posted what one is discussing; also, what you posted adds a lot more than my brief mention offered.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [September 27, 2022, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/47 "2022-09-27T01:33:49Z")

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Story about Russian stocks dropping post mobilization announcement:

> **[Russian stocks plunge to February invasion lows](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/ukraine-russian-stocks-plunge-to-february-invasion-lows.html)**
>
> Russian stocks fell sharply on Monday to reach their lowest point since Feb. 24, the day the first Russian troops entered Ukraine.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [September 27, 2022, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/48 "2022-09-27T05:03:42Z")

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From the article - they talk about the problems with Russians leaving the country after the mobilization announcement, but I did not know this one:

> “Official figures show total outward migration of 216,000 in the first half of the year and unofficial figures put the number closer to half a million,” Peach said.

Half a million Russians leaving the country is nothing to be sneezed at. Russia can ill-afford to lose population like this.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [September 27, 2022, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/49 "2022-09-27T12:44:39Z")

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Especially if they tend to be young, as seems likely.

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**Author:** ![carrps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carrps/32/2957_2.png) [@carrps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carrps)\
**Post date:** [September 27, 2022, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/50 "2022-09-27T19:48:13Z")

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I follow a Russian guy who makes funny youtube videos about his dachshunds with his wife and friends. He’s in his early 30s, I’d guess. He left the country months ago.

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**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/51 "2022-09-28T01:21:46Z")

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Given the number of potential draftees fleeing the country, how likely is it that Putin will try to stop it by closing Russia’s borders, not allowing military-eligible men to leave?

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**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/52 "2022-09-28T01:35:36Z")

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I recently met a young man who claims to have dodged the draft via the sophisticated method of taking the bus to Helsinki, and not coming back. Who knows how long that will remain possible…

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/53 "2022-09-28T01:52:28Z")

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> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> Half a million Russians leaving the country is nothing to be sneezed at. Russia can ill-afford to lose population like this.

Moscow Times says close to 1 million Russians had entered the EU by August 22. Moscow Times is anti-Putin, but the article cites to a news release from the EU border agency, Frontex. I can’t read it since it’s in German.

That’s not counting what’s happened since the mobilization - I’ve seen estimates of a quarter million in the past week, but can’t find the article.

> **[1M Russians Enter EU Since Ukraine War Start, Border Agency Says - The Moscow...](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/08/26/1m-russians-enter-eu-since-ukraine-war-start-border-agency-says-a78658)**
>
> Nearly 1 million Russian citizens have entered the European Union in the six months since their country invaded Ukraine, the EU’s border agency Frontex said Thursday.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/54 "2022-09-28T02:05:46Z")

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If even partly true, this is unsustainable for Russia, given their population dynamics. Especially since it’s likely that most of the emmigrants are from the 20 - 50 year old cohort.

Another unintended consequence of this whole Putin cluster-fuck.

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**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/55 "2022-09-28T02:05:53Z")

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> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#):
>
> Given the number of potential draftees fleeing the country, how likely is it that Putin will try to stop it by closing Russia’s borders, not allowing military-eligible men to leave?

Have you looked at the lenght of the borders …? and who will be the 100.000s of border-guards needed to enforce that? …

my guesstimate is that the US-MX boarder is probably 10% of the lenght of russia’s border - and how many resources has the US thrown at illegal migration and with what results? → swatting flies

FWIW people started selling their cars that wait in line at the georgean border - so those guys are committed to get out!

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**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/56 "2022-09-28T02:10:25Z")

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> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> If even partly true, this is unsustainable for Russia, given their population dynamics. Especially since it’s likely that most of the emmigrants are from the 20 - 50 year old cohort.
> 
> Another unintended consequence of this whole Putin cluster-fuck.

from what I gather (looking at those videos) - they seem to be mostly 20-30ies and def. solid middle (and upper) class … so chances are a venezuelan scenario, where the inteligentsia were the first to flee to miami, and those that flee now (20 years later) to colombia are pretty much the bottom of the pyramid.

So, I agree and would say that those are the “better off / educated / more competitive” people who are leaving -

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**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/57 "2022-09-28T10:49:16Z")

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> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#):
>
> number of potential draftees fleeing the country, how likely is it that Putin will try to stop it by closing Russia’s borders, not allowing military-eligible men to leave?

Quite likely. There are reports of soldiers being seen en route to the only official crossing-point into Georgia.

> **[‘We didn’t want to be part of the war’: Russians at the Georgia border flee...](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/27/we-didnt-want-to-be-part-of-the-war-russians-at-the-georgia-border-flee-putins-call-up)**
>
> Families, exhausted and bewildered, are queuing for hours at Russia’s borders to escape mobilisation

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/58 "2022-09-28T14:26:13Z")

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> [@PatrickLondon](#):
>
> Quite likely. There are reports of soldiers being seen en route to the only official crossing-point into Georgia.

So Putin drafts more soldiers so he can send them to prevent young men from leaving the country to avoid the draft. Foolproof!

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [September 28, 2022, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/59 "2022-09-28T18:28:32Z")

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Sending reinforcements to the border crossings will just mean the bribes have to be shared among more guards.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2022, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/putin-the-domestic-politics-side-of-the-war/962905/60 "2022-10-04T01:51:52Z")

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More criticism appearing internally:

> [@](#):
>
> Andrey Gurulyov, a former deputy commander of Russia’s southern military district, tried to raise these systemic issues with pro-Kremlin journalist Sergey Mardan on his live stream.
> 
> “No matter how heroically they fought, there’s an elementary calculation of military capabilities which shows whether or not Lyman could be held,” he said.
> 
> “The problem we have is the constant delivery of good reports, or constant lying, as you can call it. This system does not go from the bottom to the top, but top to bottom.”
> 
> _Before he could elaborate, Gurulyov’s Skype connection apparently suffered some technical difficulties._
> 
> Appearing on a talk show on the state-run TV channel NTV, foreign policy analyst [Maxim Yusin](https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576331334317879297) expressed doubt that Russia could hold on to any other territories it laid claim to, given the loss of Lyman.
> 
> _“I don’t remember a precedent in world history when territories we don’t even control were absorbed into the country,” he told the panel._

(My italics)

> **[‘Constant lying’: Pro-Kremlin figures lament the loss of Lyman](https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/10/3/russia-ukraine-war-pro-kremlin-figures-lament-loss-of-lyman)**
>
> As Ukrainian forces recapture the strategic city of Lyman, pro-Putin commentators slam Russia’s military tactics.

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