# Question about betting odds **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [August 29, 2017, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043 "2017-08-29T17:26:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/21 "2017-09-01T10:32:40Z")
> [@TSBG](#): > > What’s an “accumulator”–is that what we’d call in the US a “Pick Three” (Pick Four, Pick Six) where you have to get the winners of three (four, six) races in a row for the bet to pay? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/22 "2017-09-01T13:23:06Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > (I’ll provide closure for this hijack.) > > The lovely solution is that Alice should bet p[sub]t[/sub][sup]A[/sup] of her capital on each team t. (These optimal bets are _independent_ of the payoffs 1/p[sub]t[/sub][sup]B[/sup] !) Wow. Not my expected answer at all. Thank you. I noodled on this for awhile and was pretty hung up on the idea of Alice’s decision hinging on two decision factors: Her raw p[sub]t[/sub][sup]A[/sup] vector, and an overall metric for her confidence in her skill. If her skill was known or believed to be 100%, then she’d use her vector unmodified. But if she lacked confidence, she’d bias (somehow) towards favoring those _t_s where p[sub]t[/sub][sup]B[/sup] \> p[sub]t[/sub][sup]A[/sup]. With the favoring proportional somehow to the differences in p values. At the limit where she had no clue whatsoever (like my stockpicking history) she’d just use Bill’s p values as her own. I suppose maybe I can turn this thinking around to fit your result. If Alice is a really crappy handicapper, then by betting her raw p[sub]t[/sub][sup]A[/sup] vector she’ll do as well as she can. But her outcome is likely to be poor. OTOH, if she’s an awesome handicapper she should still bet her raw p[sub]t[/sub][sup]A[/sup] vector to do as well as she possibly can. But this time her outcome will (over the long haul) be better. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/23 "2017-09-01T14:04:38Z")
The assumption is that _Alice believes in her final probability estimates_. If she thinks she’s a poor handicapper and initially gives a 10% chance where Bill has only 5%, Alice will presumably modify her 10% to an estimate of, say, 8% and use that as her final estimate. The more general question you pose is _Given different probability estimates p[sup]A[/sup], p[sup]B[/sup], p[sup]C[/sup], … (along with statistics about the performance of A, B, C), then what is the best consensus probability estimate?_ I was interested in this problem two decades ago, but all I remember now is an interesting idea by Professor Rosalind Picard called “Exaggerated Consensus”: If two weathermen each predict a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and you know the two weathermen _use very different methods_, it might be appropriate to estimate a higher chance, say 75 or 80%! ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/24 "2017-09-01T15:22:11Z")
> [@TSBG](#): > > What’s an “accumulator”–is that what we’d call in the US a “Pick Three” (Pick Four, Pick Six) where you have to get the winners of three (four, six) races in a row for the bet to pay? They don’t have to be winners. A popular accumulator here is a “Yankee”. This is a 4 selection wager consisting of 11 bets: 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and a four-fold accumulator. The return for a small outlay can be considerable. > **[What is a Yankee Bet? Betting Types Explained - AceOdds](https://www.aceodds.com/what-is-a-yankee-bet.html)** > > Learn what a Yankee bet is and how to work out potential returns. All concepts are explained in a straightforward, easy to understand style. ---
**Author:** ![Bones\_Daley](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bc8723/32.png) [@Bones\_Daley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bones_Daley)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/25 "2017-09-02T18:53:38Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > They don’t have to be winners. A popular accumulator here is a “Yankee”. This is a 4 selection wager consisting of 11 bets: 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and a four-fold accumulator. The return for a small outlay can be considerable. > > [What is a Yankee Bet? Betting Types Explained - AceOdds](https://www.aceodds.com/what-is-a-yankee-bet.html) I haven’t read your link, but I can say for certain that a Yankee, per se, is _ **not** _ an accumulator bet. It does contain a 4 horse accumulator, but in and of itself, a Yankee can not be described as an “accumulator”, any more than a “Heinz” or a "Canadian " can be described as an “accumulator” despite the fact that they contain multiple accumulators. The correct term to describe a Yankee, a Heinz, or a Canadian is a “combination” bet. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/26 "2017-09-02T20:10:19Z")
Let me guess: A “Heinz” is a bet that a particular horse will start off behind, and then will ketchup? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/27 "2017-09-02T20:19:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Let me guess: A “Heinz” is a bet that a particular horse will start off behind, and then will ketchup? Nice idea, but it’s because it combines 57 accumulators. All the possible doubles and higher accumulators on 6 selections. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043/28 "2017-09-02T20:39:15Z")
If the horse does poorly does he end up as burgers? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/question-about-betting-odds/795043.md?page=1)