# Quinnipiac poll shows a tight race between Trump and Clinton in FL, OH, and PA. Anyone surprised? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 10, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512 "2016-05-10T23:38:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/21 "2016-05-11T12:28:19Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Do you read outside the Democrat bubble? Trump is articulating issues which matter to some people in language that they understand. Yes I do. “Democrat bubble”. That’s a new one on me. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/22 "2016-05-11T12:38:31Z")
“articulating issues”? Cite? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/23 "2016-05-11T12:41:10Z")
I mean, his inarticulateness is the only thing that makes him slightly _better_ from my perspective, in that I give him some slack that he meant that only _some immigrants_ from Mexico were rapists, and not the entire country like his poor grammar implied. The statement was ridiculous on several other levels of course, but a sweeping overgeneralization it wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/24 "2016-05-11T12:58:54Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Trump is articulating issues which matter to some people in language that they understand. One can either speak articulately _or_ one can speak in language that Trump supporters understand. One can not do both. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/25 "2016-05-11T14:30:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > What surprises me the least is the attention this poll is and will get as an item devoid of its context as a relative outlier. (Yes RCP shows for example the next most Marist with Clinton +15 in PA compared to Quinnipiac Clinton +1, and the next most recent Florida poll, AIF, had Clinton +13 to their +1). > > Smerconish had a segment today about how the media and political business model will, not by any conspiracy but by self-interests, work hard in the next months to build up Trump and beat down Clinton because they need there to be as close of a horse race as possible to keep their business model solvent. You’re right, but it shouldn’t surprise you. The same thing happened in 2012. The media wants a close horse race because it makes for more “news”. They’ll headline every little up and down jigger in the polls. The Democrats will downplay Hillary’s lead as much as possible, because an overwhelming lead might discourage voters who think they’re vote doesn’t matter. Trump supporters will cherry pick whatever makes him seem competitive, because they’ll not want to admit it’s a lost cause. Only the anti-Trump Republicans don’t have reason to read the polls with bias. But they will anyway, from force of habit. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/26 "2016-05-11T16:17:03Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > We’ll see what happens with more polls, but as it was pointed in another thread Romney also showed similar numbers around the time he clinched the nomination and we know what did happen in the general election. But the significance of these polls is that if Trump does as well as Romney did, then that increases the chances that the Republicans keep the Senate. The nightmare scenario for the Republicans is not that Trump loses. It’s that a) he gets completely blown out, and b) that the Republican brand as a whole is tainted by association with him, and he drags down the entire party. If he merely loses in a respectable showing, well that’s just another election - happens. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/27 "2016-05-11T16:17:45Z")
Couple national polls showing a close race: PPP has Clinton +4 and Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton at +1. Of potentially interesting note is that the Reuters poll was an internet poll and there’s suggestions that Trump supporters may be less likely to be honest to live pollsters vs automated polling methods. For the record, I still think Clinton will win (Obama was +2 right now against McCain) and all the usual caveats about early cycle polling but thought I’d mention it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/28 "2016-05-11T16:35:44Z")
Bernie Sanders loves these poll results. His campaign sent out this email this morning: > [@](#): > > This is pretty scary, Jim. A trio of polls released yesterday showed Hillary Clinton in a very difficult spot against Donald Trump. She led by one in Florida and Pennsylvania, and actually trailed him by 4 percent in Ohio. > > For months, Bernie Sanders has out-polled Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump, and often by extraordinarily large margins. Because we must do everything we can to defeat Trump in November, our mission is to win as many pledged delegates as we can between now and June 14. > > Then we’re going to have a contested convention where the Democratic Party must decide if they want the candidate with the momentum who is best positioned to beat Trump, or if they are willing to roll the dice and court disaster simply to protect the status quo for the political and financial establishment of this country. … ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/29 "2016-05-11T16:48:07Z")
If people are actually interested in defeating Trump, the answer would be to rally behind the candidate that _already_ has a huge lead in delegate count rather than insisting that THEY should be handed the nomination against the will of the voters. Of course, the primary reason why Sanders has a larger lead is because Sanders never had an actual negative campaign waged against him. Anyone thinking that he’d keep that lead when all the “Socialist! Wants to forever change America!” ads came out is delusional. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/30 "2016-05-11T16:49:41Z")
> [@bienville](#): > > One can either speak articulately _or_ one can speak in language that Trump supporters understand. > One can not do both. What a completely stupid, ignorant, and arrogant statement. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/31 "2016-05-11T16:54:20Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Ironically, one of the problems with playing the white male card is that it’s going to make it hard for Trump to win places like NC. Trump playing the WM card almost certainly will whip up white voter turnout in places like NC – but it will also whip up black voter turnout (vote-suppression measures permitting). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/32 "2016-05-11T16:55:43Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > What a completely stupid, ignorant, and arrogant statement. Bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/33 "2016-05-11T16:56:55Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > If people are actually interested in defeating Trump, the answer would be to rally behind the candidate that _already_ has a huge lead in delegate count rather than insisting that THEY should be handed the nomination against the will of the voters. Nothing Sanders or his supporters do before the convention is going to weaken Hillary’s chances in November. If they go third-party you’ll have a point, but not otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/34 "2016-05-11T17:30:55Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I am surprised each and every time I hear that someone, anyone, is planning to vote for Donald Trump for President of the United States. Why? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/35 "2016-05-11T18:01:14Z")
He’s just not very Presidential. One example: He’s stated in public that he’d ban people from entering The Land Of The Free according to their religion. That’s un-American. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/36 "2016-05-11T18:04:02Z")
OTOH, one thing that Trump does have going for him is that ISTM he’s been more willing to acknowledge changing his mind on things than most politicians. This gives him an edge when he wants to back off his prior extreme statements and ostensible positions. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/37 "2016-05-11T18:14:17Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > OTOH, one thing that Trump does have going for him is that ISTM he’s been more willing to acknowledge changing his mind on things than most politicians. This gives him an edge when he wants to back off his prior extreme statements and ostensible positions. I don’t see how that’s a positive. Looks more to me like he hasn’t seriously considered the issue he’s talking about and throws out whatever crap comes to him off the top of his head, then he goes back and tries to clean up the collateral damage to his goals that the statement has caused. It may be advantageous to him to have very few identifiable policies, but it’s not going to gain him any votes from those who actually want to know what his policies will be. Moving the target doesn’t make someone reliable. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/38 "2016-05-11T18:28:11Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > … it’s not going to gain him any votes from those who actually want to know what his policies will be. I’m under the impression that an ever-shrinking minority of the electorate actually cares about policy positions. What % of the electorate would you guess is what we would consider “low-information voters”? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/39 "2016-05-11T19:18:26Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > I don’t see how that’s a positive. Looks more to me like he hasn’t seriously considered the issue he’s talking about and throws out whatever crap comes to him off the top of his head, then he goes back and tries to clean up the collateral damage to his goals that the statement has caused. Looks that way to me too, but if people don’t really care about his positions to begin with but only his personality which is appealing to them, then that’s not what counts. What counts is if when he’s backing off whatever he said earlier, whether he tries to come up with some unconvincing way of claiming to be consistent or whether he says straight up “I thought so at the time but now I’ve decided that the matter is more complex than I thought …”. To me and you that shows that he’s out of his element, but others may think this shows he’s a straight talker unlike all the rest of the politicians. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2016, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512/40 "2016-05-11T19:26:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m under the impression that an ever-shrinking minority of the electorate actually cares about policy positions. > > What % of the electorate would you guess is what we would consider “low-information voters”? My only idea on that is that it’s too large. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/quinnipiac-poll-shows-a-tight-race-between-trump-and-clinton-in-fl-oh-and-pa-anyone-surprised/754512.md?page=3)