# Rank the toss-up states on likelihood of Obama winning them

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rank-the-toss-up-states-on-likelihood-of-obama-winning-them/638756>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 24, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rank-the-toss-up-states-on-likelihood-of-obama-winning-them/638756 "2012-10-24T20:07:30Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\
**Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rank-the-toss-up-states-on-likelihood-of-obama-winning-them/638756/41 "2012-10-27T21:27:04Z")

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How many folks here actually consider Wisconsin to be a tossup? It seems that it’s only a tossup depending on who you ask. Anyway, here’s my list coming from the guy in CA:

1. Wisconsin (because I guess we’re playing that game)
2. Nevada
3. Iowa
4. Ohio
5. New Hampshire
6. Colorado
7. Virginia
8. Florida
9. North Carolina

Just want to point out, though, that Colorado and Virginia are well and truly tied insofar as my guess as to which candidate will get those states’ EC votes. I just think that it’s _slightly_ more likely - as of today - that Obama carries CO than VA, so I placed the former higher on the list. Any given day’s polling can change that perception, however.

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**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rank-the-toss-up-states-on-likelihood-of-obama-winning-them/638756/42 "2012-11-04T16:52:32Z")

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> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#):
>
> Voter suppression is not a factor in US elections.

[Nate Silver disagrees](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/).

> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> On the contrary- while I’d be very happy with Obama’s victory, I would strongly support an effort in the aftermath to get rid of the electoral college.

Likewise.

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