Rank the toss-up states on likelihood of Obama winning them

Kind of where I’m at. Ohio has me nervous. As I understand it, Romney needs both Ohio and Florida, and he almost certainly has Florida. I worry that Ohio will be like Florida in 2000, in more ways than one. If I could be more comfortable about Ohio, I’d feel a lot better about Obama’s chances.

Voter suppression is not a factor in US elections.

I think Romney can win without Ohio, but Obama can’t. That, of course, assumes Romney gets FL, VA and NC, which are relatively safe assumptions.

I live in Ohio and all the polling I’ve seen is within 2 points one way or the other. The interesting thing to me is that our senate race is not as close. Brown (D) is at least 5 points ahead of Mandel (R). I couldn’t tell you if the senate polls are any indicator for the prez race, but I would be surprised if Romney takes Ohio while Brown keeps his senate seat.

I pretty much agree with the consensus on tossup states here: In order from Obama’s to Romneys: MI, PA, WI, NV, OH, IA, CO, NH, VA, FL, NC–with CO, NH, and VA tossups.

I personally find the converse of this more interesting: The “bankable” EV’s in the remaining states give the Dems a true advantage that they seem unlikely to lose in 2016 and 2020. Counting only the states that have gone Democratic in all of the 5 most recent presidential elections, that’s 242 EV (note that swingers MI, PA, and WI are part of that coalition); throw in NM (now a solid blue state), and the Dems start with 247 EV’s in the bank. On the other side, if you count all the states that have gone GOP in the past five elections and include states in the Deep South who only voted for Clinton (never Gore, Kerry, or Obama), you get to 172; add in MT and AZ (the first barely went with Clinton in 1992, the second in 1996) plus now-reliably-red IN and the GOP has 197 bankable EV’s.

IMO the GOP would be better served in future elections if they were to pick off WI. This is a case where I disagree with Nate Silver; he contends that WI only goes to Romney if other tossup states (like OH and IA) are already falling his way, so it should get proportionately less attention than those other swing states. But winning WI would shatter the aura of invincibility in the Dem base (it’s part of that group that has gone Dem since 1992), and IMO that is worth enough to future elections that the GOP should spend at least some extra time there for it’s own sake (i.e. as something more than gravy after OH and IA). Considering Ryan is from there, I’m surprised they haven’t spent more time on it.

Poppycock! Suppression is very much a factor, whether it be by groups that pass out flyers in low-income neighborhoods advising people that Democrats are to vote on Wednesday instead of Tuesday, or officials who allocate voting machines in such a way that inner city voters must stand in line for six hours + to vote while affluent voters have no weight, to officials who throw out voter registrations on the pretext of them being on the wrong weight of paper, to billboards in cities warning voters of the penalty for voting fraud, the list goes on and on. It is most definitely a factor and exclusively a Republican tactic.

Back to the topic at hand:

1- Michigan (still the leaders and best!)
2- Pennsylvania
3- Wisconsin
4- Nevada
5- Ohio
6- Colorado
7- Iowa
8 New Hampshire
9- Virginia
10- Florida
11- North Carolina

Cherry picked or not, PPP now shows O+5 in Virginia up from O+2. So things might be starting to lean back towards Obama’s favor after Romney post-1st debate surge.

Oh, and here’s my ranking:

1- Michigan
2- Pennsylvania
3- Wisconsin
4- Nevada
5- Ohio
6- Iowa
7- Colorado
8 - Virginia
9 - New Hampshire
10- Florida
11- North Carolina

I’m sure some of these things happen, but that doesn’t mean they are widespread enough and have enough impact to sway an election, even a close one.

A bunch of anecdotes accompanied by dark warnings of conspiracies and all-purpose whining does not make something a factor.

[And FWIW, it’s not “exclusively a Republican tactic”.]

Ohio does not release vote numbers early. In my election in Ohio (2010) they didn’t, at least.

What a candidate CAN do (and the media) is find out WHO voted early. Each day I got a list of those who had requested an early/absentee ballot and I mailed a card/called them that evening to encourage them to do the right thing (vote ME!).

But how they voted? No. Not even the county Boards of Election know that. Those votes are returned sealed and are not opened until a day or so before E-Day. Those are then counted and prepared prior to election day under secrecy. That means that the first numbers you’ll see out of Ohio are the early/absentee voters because they’ll have been available for a while inside the board.

I’d define the list of toss-up states as “those that one campaign or the other has been sinking a lot of ad money into.”

This is hardly a quibble. If one side is sure enough that they’ve won the state that they’re not advertising there anymore, and the other side is sure enough that they can’t win it that they’re not advertising there anymore, then it’s just plain NOT a toss-up. If both campaigns agree in this manner that a state is not a battleground, then it’s not, period.

Go here to see what the campaigns (and major outside groups) are spending in various states. Note the absence of recent spending in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Now, my list:

  1. OH
  2. NV
  3. WI
  4. IA
  5. NH
  6. VA
  7. CO
  8. FL
  9. NC

So then all those breathless numbers from Ohio that are being reported for early voting
with huge advantage to Obama are a WAG?

No, they are from polling.

Pollsters in states with early voting will ask respondents if they have already voted. If they have they report that result in the cross-tabs. They generally have a larger MOE, but the margins currently being reported are outside of that.

The numbers are pretty sketchy–not completely a WAG, but close enough for government work. They’re based on a number of indirect factors:

My list, subject to change, of course. Those bottom 3 are fairly safe for Romney at this point. The top 3 are safe for Obama. Ohio is technically still a toss-up, but I will be more surprised if it goes to Romney.

  1. NV
  2. WI
  3. IA
  4. OH
  5. NH
  6. CO
  7. VA
  8. FL
  9. NC

Among what I’ve seen usually considered the Big Four swing states – OH, FL, PA and VA – I think Obama has a lock on PA and will almost certainly win OH. Romney will probably win FL. VA is a complete toss-up. I also think CO is a toss-up. All the rest of the states I feel certain will go as expected.

According to in-depth polling by Jocko Enterprises, otherwise known as my gut feeling backed by what I read across multiple sources … I think putting Michigan and Pennsylvania in the tossup category is wishful thinking. It seems those two states are pretty solidly on the Obama side, at least right now. North Carolina, similiarly, I think is pretty solidly a Romney state this year.

My wild-eyed guess at the rest, in order of likelihood for Obama:

  1. Wisconsin (I have serious doubts that Romney has much of a chance here, but who knows?)
  2. Nevada (looks solidly Obama right now)
  3. New Hampshire (my gut just says no way this goes Romney, but I know the polling is close)
  4. Ohio (I wish I was as confident as RTFirefly about this)
    Tie 5. Iowa (I live here. I see the polls good for Obama, but there’s a lot of red in this state)
    Tie 5. Colorado
  5. Virginia
  6. Florida

A slight swing in the polls, or the economy, or the national mood, could conceivably move all these states to Obama. A swing the other way could possibly throw everything up to New Hampshire or Ohio to Romney. I’m crossing my fingers THAT doesn’t happen.

If I had to bet money right now (and things can happen in a week) that Romney wins the popular votes but sits in stunned silence as he loses OH, WI, and MI by less than 5 points TOTAL and loses PA by 3 points. The SDMB reverses position and expounds upon the virtues of the electoral college. :slight_smile:

On the contrary- while I’d be very happy with Obama’s victory, I would strongly support an effort in the aftermath to get rid of the electoral college.

My admittedly ignorant guess right now is Obama gets 303 EVs, so

  1. MI
  2. PA
  3. NV
  4. WI
  5. OH
  6. IA
  7. CO
  8. VA
  9. NH


  1. FL
  2. NC

Why 303? Because that’s what I end up with when I couple the polls and fiddling around with map software like 270towin.com
Oh, and don’t you people dare fuck with the Electoral College now that I’m in LA instead of Ohio. I’ve suffered enough!