# RE Ireland -- please correct me if I'm wrong **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 9, 2019, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918 "2019-09-09T03:36:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/41 "2019-09-11T08:21:43Z")
> [@Filbert](#): > > The rules can officially spring into place, sure, but I don’t see how they’re going to be able to do more than draw a chalk line and get people to pinky promise not to cross it over 99%+ of the border on November 1st. Unless, of course, there’s a huge secret stockpile of physical barriers, thousands of people contracted to put them up in a single night, border guards already starting the hiring process… > > They could manage a few token checkpoints on the major routes. They could declare rules. Ability to _enforce_ rules is what I’m talking about. How do you enforce a hard border without a physical barrier or checks? They take time, and money, and organisation to put in place. > > I’m not saying it wouldn’t be massively damaging to legal trade, I’m just saying that turning a line on a map into a meaningful border is not something that just happens. A border you can drive right across without any checks isn’t a hard border, except on paper. It doesn’t happen immediately; it can’t. But it will happen, and fairly quickly. The countries on both sides of the border have interests which they cannot neglect indefinely, and which require the border to be controlled. I mean, that’s why borders everywyhere else are controlled. That’s why structures and arrangements like the Customs Union and the Single Market were developed; to avoid the need for border controls. What is so magical about the Ireland/NI border that it, alone of all the international borders in the world, can be left uncontrolled without any structures or arrangements to avoid the problems to which an uncontrolled border gives rise? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/42 "2019-09-11T08:34:04Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Glasgow is not an English provincial city. Do not make this mistake in the wrong company. I’ll say no more than that. 🙂 I was pretty sure I wrote \* Scottish, but point stands\* in brackets, but apparently not. 😕:eek::smack: I accept my punishment. > [@](#): > > UK position is that they will maintain the CTA and, for once, I think they mean this and will implement it. The Brexit issue was/is full of things the UK Government sincerely inteded to do, but which proved impossible. > [@](#): > > The problem this creates is that it presents an opportunity for, e.g. a Polish citizen to enter the UK without any control or even knowledge on the part of the UK authorities. But in practical reality this is not a huge problem because Polish citizen will be able to enter the UK very easily anyway - there will be visa-free entry for EU citizens. Its not just EU Citizens. If I was a people smuggler, this would be the method by which I would go. Anyone who the Irish deem admissisable is now de facto able to enter the UK. Unless the Irish agree to the British having a veto over Irish border policy…is that workable, with 30,000 British soldiers invading Ireland? > [@](#): > > What Brexit UK wants is not to stop, or even apply much control on, EU citizens entering the UK, but on EU citizens settling in the UK - becoming resident there, taking up jobs, etc. But they don’t intend to do this through border controls; rather, they will use in-country controls. EU citizens will be able to enter the country with minimal cost, delay or formality and in practice without their entry even being recorded, but in order to rent a flat, put their kids in school, register with a GP practice, take a job, etc they will have to demonstrate that they have an appropriate citizenship/migration status giving them a right of abode in the UK. Migration law enforcement will be largely outsourced to schools, doctors, employers etc, who themselves will exposed to penalties if they do not co-operate in implementing the rules. > > Is this practicable? Will it work effectively? Will it be politically acceptable to UK citizens who will now have to produce papers proving their status in order to do everyday things? Is this what they fought the War for? Are the words “Windrush scandal” galloping towards this conversation at breakneck speed? All good questions, but they are not made more pressing or acute by the continuation of the CTA. What the UK intends to do in this regard is not incompatible with the continuation of the CTA, and if what they intend to do proves impracticable it won’t be made practicable by terminating the CTA. I can answer the work effectivly bit easily…hell no. The level of knowledge the average layman has on immigration matters is practically zero. I have lost count of how many times I had to explain to friends and collegaues that I couldn’t just hop across on a whim to Europe like they could, I needed a visa, and no last time I joined them on the sudden trip because I had a then active visa, no the fact I looked like a decent educated chap would cut no ice would border agents, they were not nightclub bouncers, no ECHR didn’t apply here, equality provisions would be of no help (I seriously wish I was joking about the last one). What will happen is that some people will. Too many will just not be bothered and keep their head down, _after all Mr Kowalski is a lovley chap_, w_hy should the Home Office have any issue, no need for the fuss_? > [@](#): > > So, of the three kinds of controls on the UK/Irish border that _might_ be threatened by Brexit - migration, fiscal, regulatory - I think migration controls are the least likely to eventuate, and if they do it will not be for some time. As matters stand the other two are certain to eventuate, and quite quickly. I would disagree, migration will PDQ. A person who is in Ireland is in the UK for all practical purposes. Thats going to have an impact very quickly in the minds of politicians. Ireland had a 900 mile lomg coastleine and a few leaky patrol boats…so a migrant vessel could pretty easily enter into a deserted beach at night and be in the UK in the morning. 1. Would Ireland be willing to spend the billion of pounds needed to get the survilliance, air and maritime assets needed to properly interdict? 2. In the alternative, would Ireland be willing to let the RN and RAF police its air and maritime frontiers? 3. If none of the above are acceptable, would the British Government be happy to raise controls between N Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom? Is it me or have they not thought Brexit through? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/43 "2019-09-11T08:43:00Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > …is that workable, with 30,000 British soldiers invading Ireland? That should read, with_out_ 30,000 British soldiers invading Ireland? :smack: ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/44 "2019-09-11T09:15:42Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The Brexit issue was/is full of things the UK Government sincerely inteded to do, but which proved impossible. Very true. But I thinkk this may be one of the less impossible things they intend. > [@AK84](#): > > Its not just EU Citizens. If I was a people smuggler, this would be the method by which I would go. Anyone who the Irish deem admissisable is now de facto able to enter the UK. And vice versa. But that’s the case right now. And Brexit changes it only for EU citizens, which is what we are concerned about. At present, a citizen of Umbrellastan who can enter Ireland can also enter the UK, and vice versa. This doesn’t imperil the CTA because Ireland and the UK, as a matter of policy, keep their visa policies and requirements closely aligned. They’re not identical, but they are similar enough that the degree of “leakage” facilitated by the CTA is acceptable to both countries. If a citizen of the UK would face restrictions on entering the UK directly, he will likely find that he faces the same restrictions entering Ireland. And vice versa. And, post Brexit, with regard to non-EU countries, nothing need change. The arrangements that have worked to sustain the CTA up to now can continue. Except for EU citizens - Ireland won’t adopt policies which parallel any restrictions that the UK chooses to impose on EU citizens. So this presents an opportunity for Poles, Romanians, etc that it is unlikely to present for Umbrellastanis. > [@AK84](#): > > I can answer the work effectivly bit easily…hell no. The level of knowledge the average layman has on immigration matters is practically zero. I have lost count of how many times I had to explain to friends and collegaues that I couldn’t just hop across on a whim to Europe like they could, I needed a visa, and no last time I joined them on the sudden trip because I had a then active visa, no the fact I looked like a decent educated chap would cut no ice would border agents, they were not nightclub bouncers, no ECHR didn’t apply here, equality provisions would be of no help (I seriously wish I was joking about the last one). > > What will happen is that some people will. Too many will just not be bothered and keep their head down, _after all Mr Kowalski is a lovley chap_, w_hy should the Home Office have any issue, no need for the fuss_? I would defer to your superior knowledge and experience about this, except that I don’t need to; I think you’re right. But it’s not the continuation of the CTA that’s going to put pressure on the UK’s intended method of enforcing restrictions on EU citizens; it’s going to be some combination of outrage at the impositions that _everybody_ will suffer, even _normal_ people!, and outrage at the Windrush-type scandals that will unfold. And if the UK does have to change course, the change won’t involve adopting migration controls at the land border in Ireland. That’s frankly impossible; they have never succeeded in doing that. They’ll police migration rules at the sea and air crossings between NI and GB. That’s what they have done before, when they needed to do something of the kind. NI Unionists will be outraged, but frankly they have pretty much exhausted their political capital on Brexit-related matters. > [@AK84](#): > > I would disagree, migration will PDQ. A person who is in Ireland is in the UK for all practical purposes. Thats going to have an impact very quickly in the minds of politicians. Ireland had a 900 mile lomg coastleine and a few leaky patrol boats…so a migrant vessel could pretty easily enter into a deserted beach at night and be in the UK in the morning. As pointed out, that’s the case right now, and yet it doesn’t appear to be happening on any scale. Or at all, as far as I can see - have any migrant vessels at all arrived in Ireland? Is there any reason to think that it will happen on a greater scale after Brexit? Why would it? > [@AK84](#): > > 1. Would Ireland be willing to spend the billion of pounds needed to get the survilliance, air and maritime assets needed to properly interdict? > 2. In the alternative, would Ireland be willing to let the RN and RAF police its air and maritime frontiers? > 3. If none of the above are acceptable, would the British Government be happy to raise controls between N Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom? > > Is it me or have they not thought Brexit through? Well, as I say, I think you’re jumping at shadows here. The arrangements that currently operate seem to be effective at keeping third country migrants from using Ireland as a back door to the UK on any scale, and no aspect of Brexit requires any change to those arrangements. Brexit only presents an issue in regard to EU citizens exercising their free movement rights to enter Ireland, and then travelling on to the UK, despite the fact that they no longer have free movement rights in the UK. (Which I think is the only Brexit-driven change that is relevant to the CTA.) But, if I’m wrong about this, the answer to your third question (controls between NI and GB) is “yes”. The UK has done this before, when they felt it was required; there is no reason at all to think that they would not do it again. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/45 "2019-09-11T15:08:02Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Ireland had a 900 mile lomg coastleine and a few leaky patrol boats…so a migrant vessel could pretty easily enter into a deserted beach at night and be in the UK in the morning. > > 1. Would Ireland be willing to spend the billion of pounds needed to get the survilliance, air and maritime assets needed to properly interdict? > 2. In the alternative, would Ireland be willing to let the RN and RAF police its air and maritime frontiers? > 3. If none of the above are acceptable, would the British Government be happy to raise controls between N Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom? The fact that the UK lies in between Ireland and the usual departure points from the continent, and is the desired destination anyway, rather renders the question otiose. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/46 "2019-09-11T15:17:51Z")
As regards the CTA, it was (and remains) a necessary component of the independence treaty of 1921/2. Otherwise thousands of people of Irish heritage in the UK (and especially in Northern Ireland) might have found themselves suddenly declared foreigners, or forced to choose between Irish and British citizenship. Irrespective of their personal opinions on the independence question or the tactics of the Sinn Fein of the day, that was simply impracticable (indeed in NI it might very well have led to substantial efforts at “ethnic cleansing” - there were periodic “burn them out” episodes in Belfast as it was). So for nearly 100 years, Irish citizens have had the right of free movement, settlement, and even the right to vote in the UK. The Home Office has enough trouble trying to sort out the residence permits of other EU citizens in the UK with only 40 years of common history: attempting to undo longstanding Irish rights in the UK would be beyond any reasonable government. I suppose I wouldn’t put it past some people on the Brexit side to try, but it’s just not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/47 "2019-09-11T15:21:00Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > The fact that the UK lies in between Ireland and the usual departure points from the continent, and is the desired destination anyway, rather renders the question otiose. Yes because no one has ever taken a longer route to avoid patrols… Going to check every Tramp steamer going to the Western approaches? ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2019, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/48 "2019-09-12T01:01:29Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Yes because no one has ever taken a longer route to avoid patrols… > Going to check every Tramp steamer going to the Western approaches? My question remains: if they don’t need to do this now, why would they need to do it after Brexit? ---
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2019, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/49 "2019-09-12T01:05:42Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > A hard border would be an economic disaster for both sides. I don’t think anyone is seriously contemplating it. You are correct. Boris Johnson is contemplating it, but your statement is still correct. (I thought this would be a Brexit thread.) I heard (probably 20 years ago now) that the Catholic percentage in Northern Ireland is still rising, and NI will eventually become Catholic (and presumably join Ireland). But is that still true? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2019, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/50 "2019-09-12T02:07:43Z")
> [@Kimera757](#): > > I heard (probably 20 years ago now) that the Catholic percentage in Northern Ireland is still rising, and NI will eventually become Catholic (and presumably join Ireland). But is that still true? The [Wikipedia article on Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland#Religion) notes that, as of the 2011 census, it’s pretty much a dead heat: - 41.5% Protestant / Non-Catholic Christian - 40.8% Roman Catholic ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2019, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/51 "2019-09-12T02:21:17Z")
For what it’s worth, [opinion poll published just yesterday](https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/#more-16074): > [@](#): > > If there were a ‘border poll’ tomorrow, how would you vote? > > - For Northern Ireland to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland: 51% > - For Northern Ireland to stay in the UK: 49% Of course, all the usual qualifications: It’s only a poll, there isn’t actually going to be a border poll tomorrow, margin of error, these figures exlcude 'don;‘t knows’ and ‘wouldn’t votes’, yadda yadda yadda. Still, interesting. It may suggest that a demographic and political trend which has been observed for some time is, or may be, approaching a tipping point. ---
**Author:** ![kirkrapine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/7ea924/32.png) [@kirkrapine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kirkrapine)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918/52 "2019-09-12T02:27:27Z")
Old Irish joke: “If only we were heathen so we could all live together like good Christians!” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-ireland-please-correct-me-if-im-wrong/839918.md?page=2)