It doesn’t happen immediately; it can’t. But it will happen, and fairly quickly. The countries on both sides of the border have interests which they cannot neglect indefinely, and which require the border to be controlled.
I mean, that’s why borders everywyhere else are controlled. That’s why structures and arrangements like the Customs Union and the Single Market were developed; to avoid the need for border controls. What is so magical about the Ireland/NI border that it, alone of all the international borders in the world, can be left uncontrolled without any structures or arrangements to avoid the problems to which an uncontrolled border gives rise?
I was pretty sure I wrote * Scottish, but point stands* in brackets, but apparently not. :eek::smack:
I accept my punishment.
The Brexit issue was/is full of things the UK Government sincerely inteded to do, but which proved impossible.
Its not just EU Citizens. If I was a people smuggler, this would be the method by which I would go. Anyone who the Irish deem admissisable is now de facto able to enter the UK. Unless the Irish agree to the British having a veto over Irish border policy…is that workable, with 30,000 British soldiers invading Ireland?
I can answer the work effectivly bit easily…hell no. The level of knowledge the average layman has on immigration matters is practically zero. I have lost count of how many times I had to explain to friends and collegaues that I couldn’t just hop across on a whim to Europe like they could, I needed a visa, and no last time I joined them on the sudden trip because I had a then active visa, no the fact I looked like a decent educated chap would cut no ice would border agents, they were not nightclub bouncers, no ECHR didn’t apply here, equality provisions would be of no help (I seriously wish I was joking about the last one).
What will happen is that some people will. Too many will just not be bothered and keep their head down, after all Mr Kowalski is a lovley chap, why should the Home Office have any issue, no need for the fuss?
I would disagree, migration will PDQ. A person who is in Ireland is in the UK for all practical purposes. Thats going to have an impact very quickly in the minds of politicians. Ireland had a 900 mile lomg coastleine and a few leaky patrol boats…so a migrant vessel could pretty easily enter into a deserted beach at night and be in the UK in the morning.
Would Ireland be willing to spend the billion of pounds needed to get the survilliance, air and maritime assets needed to properly interdict?
In the alternative, would Ireland be willing to let the RN and RAF police its air and maritime frontiers?
If none of the above are acceptable, would the British Government be happy to raise controls between N Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom?
Is it me or have they not thought Brexit through?
Very true. But I thinkk this may be one of the less impossible things they intend.
And vice versa. But that’s the case right now. And Brexit changes it only for EU citizens, which is what we are concerned about.
At present, a citizen of Umbrellastan who can enter Ireland can also enter the UK, and vice versa. This doesn’t imperil the CTA because Ireland and the UK, as a matter of policy, keep their visa policies and requirements closely aligned. They’re not identical, but they are similar enough that the degree of “leakage” facilitated by the CTA is acceptable to both countries. If a citizen of the UK would face restrictions on entering the UK directly, he will likely find that he faces the same restrictions entering Ireland. And vice versa.
And, post Brexit, with regard to non-EU countries, nothing need change. The arrangements that have worked to sustain the CTA up to now can continue. Except for EU citizens - Ireland won’t adopt policies which parallel any restrictions that the UK chooses to impose on EU citizens. So this presents an opportunity for Poles, Romanians, etc that it is unlikely to present for Umbrellastanis.
I would defer to your superior knowledge and experience about this, except that I don’t need to; I think you’re right. But it’s not the continuation of the CTA that’s going to put pressure on the UK’s intended method of enforcing restrictions on EU citizens; it’s going to be some combination of outrage at the impositions that everybody will suffer, even normal people!, and outrage at the Windrush-type scandals that will unfold.
And if the UK does have to change course, the change won’t involve adopting migration controls at the land border in Ireland. That’s frankly impossible; they have never succeeded in doing that. They’ll police migration rules at the sea and air crossings between NI and GB. That’s what they have done before, when they needed to do something of the kind. NI Unionists will be outraged, but frankly they have pretty much exhausted their political capital on Brexit-related matters.
As pointed out, that’s the case right now, and yet it doesn’t appear to be happening on any scale. Or at all, as far as I can see - have any migrant vessels at all arrived in Ireland? Is there any reason to think that it will happen on a greater scale after Brexit? Why would it?
Well, as I say, I think you’re jumping at shadows here. The arrangements that currently operate seem to be effective at keeping third country migrants from using Ireland as a back door to the UK on any scale, and no aspect of Brexit requires any change to those arrangements. Brexit only presents an issue in regard to EU citizens exercising their free movement rights to enter Ireland, and then travelling on to the UK, despite the fact that they no longer have free movement rights in the UK. (Which I think is the only Brexit-driven change that is relevant to the CTA.)
But, if I’m wrong about this, the answer to your third question (controls between NI and GB) is “yes”. The UK has done this before, when they felt it was required; there is no reason at all to think that they would not do it again.
The fact that the UK lies in between Ireland and the usual departure points from the continent, and is the desired destination anyway, rather renders the question otiose.
As regards the CTA, it was (and remains) a necessary component of the independence treaty of 1921/2. Otherwise thousands of people of Irish heritage in the UK (and especially in Northern Ireland) might have found themselves suddenly declared foreigners, or forced to choose between Irish and British citizenship. Irrespective of their personal opinions on the independence question or the tactics of the Sinn Fein of the day, that was simply impracticable (indeed in NI it might very well have led to substantial efforts at “ethnic cleansing” - there were periodic “burn them out” episodes in Belfast as it was).
So for nearly 100 years, Irish citizens have had the right of free movement, settlement, and even the right to vote in the UK. The Home Office has enough trouble trying to sort out the residence permits of other EU citizens in the UK with only 40 years of common history: attempting to undo longstanding Irish rights in the UK would be beyond any reasonable government. I suppose I wouldn’t put it past some people on the Brexit side to try, but it’s just not going to happen.
Boris Johnson is contemplating it, but your statement is still correct. (I thought this would be a Brexit thread.)
I heard (probably 20 years ago now) that the Catholic percentage in Northern Ireland is still rising, and NI will eventually become Catholic (and presumably join Ireland). But is that still true?
Of course, all the usual qualifications: It’s only a poll, there isn’t actually going to be a border poll tomorrow, margin of error, these figures exlcude 'don;‘t knows’ and ‘wouldn’t votes’, yadda yadda yadda.
Still, interesting. It may suggest that a demographic and political trend which has been observed for some time is, or may be, approaching a tipping point.
:eek::smack: