# Re "self driving cars" people talk as if this is a few years away. This seems nuts to me. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 26, 2016, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074 "2016-08-26T23:18:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/61 "2016-08-30T17:21:01Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Is this true? I think we’re seeing situations where the autonomous cars are not doing well, so the question in why are what needs to be done about it. Manufacturers are obviously not going to be open about it now. > > I’m confused because the article you link to is about the driver of the car specifically stating that that the car did not provide warnings prior to the crash. What I am saying is that the programming, so far, leaves something to be desired. The story I linked to illuminates a _flaw_ in programming design. Really, autonomous surface (or airborne) vehicle control code should _not_ have the privilege of trade secret protection, because it is very critical to all of us. And quite frankly, I cannot see why vehicle-to-vehicle collisions should be a huge issue. Autonomous vehicles can be made out of no-traditional materials that are more crash tolerant – an airbag system _on the outside_ would probably be a really good idea, even for manually controlled cars. One general idea is that self-driving cars would largely replace personal cars, establishing a large mass-transit system, so there is no reason they would need to be especially stylish on the outside. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/62 "2016-08-30T17:29:15Z")
There’s no need for them to be stylish now either ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/63 "2016-08-30T17:59:40Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Is this true? I think we’re seeing situations where the autonomous cars are not doing well, so the question in why are what needs to be done about it. Manufacturers are obviously not going to be open about it now. My understanding is that autonomous cars are very good at following rules but not so good at abstract situations. For example, a 4 way stop. Human drivers tend not to come to a complete stop. They slow down to an almost stop and then proceed when it’s their turn. I read that they had an issue where the computer car would make a full stop as per the letter of the law, which would then be interpreted as a delay by other drivers who would take their turn. I would also imagine that driving on poorly marked roads, obscured by dirt, leaves, snow or weather might be a challenge. I also read there was an issue with the self driving cars making wild maneuvers that are well within the safe operating parameters, but still uncomfortable forthe passengers. IOW, they have trouble telling the car that it doesn’t have to avoid an obstacle as rapidly as possible. But generally speaking, if a computer can detect other vehicles, I think it’s safe to assume it can calculate their range, bearing and distance and determine a safe route far quicker and more accurately than any human. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/64 "2016-08-30T18:00:01Z")
> [@dofe](#): > > Of course, the ultimate goal is to have a fully automated system do that we can do what you’re suggesting. But even just having a system where we’re required to monitor the driving is easier than driving the car myself. Think of cruise control systems – in long distance highway cruising, having cruise control makes a huge difference in relieving driver fatigue, even though we’re still required to monitor road traffic. Now lets add a radar sensor to the cruise control system so that the car automatically slows down when it senses cars ahead (this adaptive cruise control system is already available in lots of cars), and you’ve the task of driving even easier, even though we’re still monitoring the system. That’s kind of where I was thinking the trail will lead- greater and greater adoption of assistive or semi-autonomous systems to aid drivers, and eventually, things will just go all automated. I mean, it would be cool to have a heads-up display that would somehow show relative speed of cars on the highway It also seems to me that if you had enough cars logging enough data, then deep learning systems might be able to determine some solid driving rules for future autonomous vehicles. It would take something like logging speed, map position, control inputs, surrounding cars and static objects, and the results of each situation. And finally, I think we’ll eventually end up with some sort of swarm technology that allows the automation to happen- it won’t likely be “autonomous” vehicles in the sense of only having sensor input. It’s a lot more likely to be some sort of ad-hoc network kind of thing, where the cars share pertinent info and act on it. Like if a car needs to get over, it might signal that intent, and other cars would speed up and slow down to allow it to get over safely. Or if there’s an obstacle in the road 2 miles up, that information might be communicated backward to cars so they can get over early. And so on… ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/65 "2016-08-30T19:49:40Z")
The obvious solution for intersections, even with human-operated vehicles, is roundabouts to replace traffic lights. It does take a while for drivers to become accustomed to them, but they keep traffic flowing fairly steadily. One reason we do not use them everywhere right now is that they force drivers to be considerate of each other, but they would provide an effective structure for mixing autonomous + manual vehicles to share. Their biggest weaknesses are the challenges involving large trucks/buses/semi-rigs, and the fact that there is no practical way to incorporate them into a traditional one-way grid. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Pearse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/richard_pearse/32/13144_2.png) [@Richard\_Pearse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Pearse)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/66 "2016-08-30T22:30:37Z")
Roundabouts are great but they are best used at intersections that have traffic from all directions. A roundabout on an intersection of a main road with lots of traffic and a cross road with very little traffic can prevent the side road traffic getting through for long periods. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2016, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/67 "2016-08-31T02:57:03Z")
Just the elimination of drunk drivers from the road will be a huge boon to safety attributable to automatic cars. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2016, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/68 "2016-09-13T14:09:57Z")
Volvo is starting a pilot project with actual consumers using cars with autonomous mode. [First self-driving vehicle produced for Volvo's public trial](http://newatlas.com/volvo-drive-me-autonomous-xc90/45367/) ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/69 "2016-09-14T18:26:07Z")
As a programmer and general computer guy, I’ve seen so many examples of computers screwing up 1000 times the stuff in 1/1000th the time. One little sensor glitch and mistakes very quickly compound and computers do things that seem crazy to us, because computers aren’t thinking, they are just running a bunch of algorithms very quickly. I can’t see self driving cars any time soon. I believe the safest thing we can implement soon is a “road train” type cruise control for limited access Interstate highways that would allow a train of similarly programmed vehicles to follow each other at high speeds. On the Interstate highways there are no traffic lights, stop signs, or intersecting roads. But weather would still be a wildcard. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/70 "2016-09-15T02:53:16Z")
…[this](http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdedu8_buck-rogers-marauder-battle_shortfilms)is the inevitable result of self driving cars. “Watch out Thornberry!” Lt Rather would still be alive if it weren’t for those blasted computers. ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/71 "2016-09-15T03:56:09Z")
> **[Uber debuts self-driving vehicles in landmark Pittsburgh trial](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-autonomous-idUSKCN11K12Y)** > > When Pittsburgh wakes up on Wednesday morning, some residents will have the choice of going about their day in an Uber that drives itself. From early reports (basically today) humans had to take control a time or two but if they can make it work in this crap-tastic road system it can work anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![dofe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ba0ec/32.png) [@dofe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dofe)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/72 "2016-09-15T05:53:40Z")
Here’s another article on Uber’s debut service of their autonomous cars. [http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-driverless-car-in-pittsburgh-review-photos-2016-9/](http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-driverless-car-in-pittsburgh-review-photos-2016-9/) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/73 "2016-09-15T06:03:35Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > I can’t see self driving cars any time soon. As has been noted for weeks now, they are already here. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Pearse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/richard_pearse/32/13144_2.png) [@Richard\_Pearse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Pearse)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/74 "2016-09-15T07:16:52Z")
> [@dofe](#): > > Here’s another article on Uber’s debut service of their autonomous cars. > > [http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-driverless-car-in-pittsburgh-review-photos-2016-9/](http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-driverless-car-in-pittsburgh-review-photos-2016-9/) So it is essentially allowing a select few invited passengers to participate in testing. The trips are free, there is both a driver and an engineer in the front of the car with the driver taking over regularly and the engineer sometimes adjusting the car’s speed. This doesn’t seem any closer to widespread autonomous cars than the other trials that are underway. > [@Snowboarder Bo](#): > > As has been noted for weeks now, they are already here. Not in any meaningful way. The article cited by **kopek** says industry executives are divided with some saying 5 years and others several decades before we have truly autonomous cars. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/75 "2016-09-15T10:59:19Z")
Humans have good judgement (when we aren’t drunk, tired, distracted or otherwise impaired, that is), sure. But if you are designing a car, would you choose to put only two sensors, both facing the same way with limited ability to swivel, behind a thick sheet of glass several feet into the vehicle? I can’t think of a worse setup! We are collectively crappy drivers. Major accidents happen every day. Most us know someone who has died in an accident. Most of us will be in an accident. Driving is the most astoundingly dangerous thing we do on a daily basis. Self-driving cars won’t be perfect, but they’ve got a low bar to clear. They will save millions of lives and can’t come soon enough. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/76 "2016-09-15T12:29:34Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > We are collectively crappy drivers. > Self-driving cars won’t be perfect, but they’ve got a low bar to clear. It depends what that “low bar to clear” is . The problem right now is not how to clear the hurdle of safety. The problem is how to make a self-driving car that can clear a more difficult hurdle—ie. a car that can actually …well,_drive_. Everybody is all excited over the safety issue, and how self-driving cars are better than people. But nobody talks about the most important issue of all: The purpose of a car is to take you places. And that’s what self-driving cars _fail_ to do. Yes, IF the car manages to take you where you want to go, then you arrive in safety. But right now , self-driving cars are not capable of taking you where you want to go. They can only take you on the highway, or on clear roads on sunny days. They don’t know how to avoid potholes, or drive on snow. They don’t know how to drive in fog.They don’t know how to maneuver around a construction site where one lane is closed, forcing you to drive the wrong way down the opposite lane. The safety issue is important. But it’s less important than actually driving you where you want to go. Robo-cars may soon appear in limited uses, such as shuttles within airports. But it’s going to take several decades before the general public buys self-driving cars to keep in their garage at home. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/77 "2016-09-15T12:42:59Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > Driving is the most astoundingly dangerous thing we do on a daily basis. Except those of us who smoke. ---
**Author:** ![Gus\_Gusterson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/85f322/32.png) [@Gus\_Gusterson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gus_Gusterson)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/78 "2016-09-15T13:25:19Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > We are collectively crappy drivers. Major accidents happen every day. Most us know someone who has died in an accident. Most of us will be in an accident. Driving is the most astoundingly dangerous thing we do on a daily basis. > > Self-driving cars won’t be perfect, but they’ve got a low bar to clear. They will save millions of lives and can’t come soon enough. Self-driving cars will be, on average, better drivers than humans. There will be fewer accidents. I agree with these statements. What concerns me is that they will spread the risk from bad drivers to everyone. Currently, a good driver is less likely to cause an accident than a bad driver. When you put those drivers in self-driving cars they’re now equally likely to be in an accident. If I’m a better driver than a self-driving car I am reducing my safety by riding in one. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/79 "2016-09-15T13:32:09Z")
Only if self-driving cars are _worse_ than _some_ drivers. And even then, even if you are among those top 1% of drivers who can drive better than a self-driving car, if the penetration of self-driving cars is high enough, I find it hard to believe that the marginally increased danger from being in a (relatively) poorly-driven car would outweigh the huge benefit from being around a lot fewer truly horrible drivers. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/80 "2016-09-15T13:49:37Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Only if self-driving cars are _worse_ than _some_ drivers. And even then, even if you are among those top 1% of drivers who can drive better than a self-driving car, if the penetration of self-driving cars is high enough, I find it hard to believe that the marginally increased danger from being in a (relatively) poorly-driven car would outweigh the huge benefit from being around a lot fewer truly horrible drivers. Well, it wouldn’t have to. If the penetration of safe self-driving cars is that high, everybody gets that exposure benefit and it drops out of the comparison of individual cases. > [@chappachula](#): > > It depends what that “low bar to clear” is . > The problem right now is not how to clear the hurdle of safety. > The problem is how to make a self-driving car that can clear a more difficult hurdle—ie. a car that can actually …well, _drive_. Bingo. The problem with self-drivers now isn’t so much their eyes, it’s their brains. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074.md?page=5)