# Re "self driving cars" people talk as if this is a few years away. This seems nuts to me. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 26, 2016, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074 "2016-08-26T23:18:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/101 "2016-09-17T13:59:41Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But there are lots of situations where a truly driverless (i.e. un-manually-drivable) car is untenable. Parking in a large grass field at an outdoor concert or fair. Dealing with driving around a rural accident where you need to pull onto the sloping drainage shoulder in the dirt to pass. Maneuvering 4 of them around a crowded repair garage. Etc. You don’t actually need manual control for these situations. You just need an autopilot interface that allows the passenger to specify the course of action - e.g. displaying a camera view on a touchscreen display, allowing the passenger to indicate where exactly to park, or which part of the grass to drive on. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/102 "2016-09-17T14:04:14Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But there are lots of situations where a truly driverless (i.e. un-manually-drivable) car is untenable. Parking in a large grass field at an outdoor concert or fair. Dealing with driving around a rural accident where you need to pull onto the sloping drainage shoulder in the dirt to pass. Maneuvering 4 of them around a crowded repair garage. Etc. The first and third of those should be far easier for self-driving cars to do than humans, as they’ll be able to know exactly where the other cars are, exactly where they need to be, and exactly how much space they need to leave. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/103 "2016-09-17T14:04:32Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > People love to drive and the freedom and control over driving. Such people will never hand it over to AI even if AI was way better. I think when people say they love to drive, most of them just love the freedom allowed by having a car. Or they think they love driving, but only because they associate it with that freedom. Given a choice between driving to a destination (and parking the car yourself, etc) vs. having something/someone drive you to the destination, most of us would choose the latter. How many billionaires do you know who drive _everywhere_ on their own, rather than using a chauffeur? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/104 "2016-09-17T21:30:47Z")
> [@Richard\_Pearse](#): > > Not in any meaningful way. The article cited by **kopek** says industry executives are divided with some saying 5 years and others several decades before we have truly autonomous cars. Yes, in a meaningful way. And it won’t be 5 years because it truly has already happened weeks ago. > **[MIT spinout NuTonomy just beat Uber to launch the world's first self-driving...](https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/24/mit-spinout-nutonomy-just-beat-uber-to-launch-the-worlds-first-self-driving-taxi/)** > > Uber has taken the plaudits for its audacious plans to deploy driverless cars as soon as this month, but the U.S. giant has been beaten to the punch for actually introducing autonomous vehicles by a far lower-profile company based across the world in... [http://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-hit-the-road-in-singapore-1472102747](http://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-hit-the-road-in-singapore-1472102747) [http://bigstory.ap.org/article/615568b7668b452bbc8d2e2f3e5148e6/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-debut-singapore](http://bigstory.ap.org/article/615568b7668b452bbc8d2e2f3e5148e6/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-debut-singapore) ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/105 "2016-09-17T22:13:30Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > [65% of smartphone owners using voice assistances in 2015](http://www.idownloadblog.com/2016/06/02/mary-meeker-mobile-voice-assistant-usage/) > > “Much of the growth in mobile assistant usage stems from advances in that space, including improved technology, more accurate voice recognition, raised awareness of these products.” > > Stranger I have not seen anyone talk to their smartphone or ipad. Even where every year the technology is getting better. They now even have Siri Mac OS X and I’m sure it better time before Microsoft has some thing similar for windows 10. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Pearse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/richard_pearse/32/13144_2.png) [@Richard\_Pearse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Pearse)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/106 "2016-09-17T22:16:25Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Yes, in a meaningful way. And it won’t be 5 years because it truly has already happened weeks ago. > > [MIT spinout NuTonomy just beat Uber to launch the world's first self-driving taxi | TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/24/mit-spinout-nutonomy-just-beat-uber-to-launch-the-worlds-first-self-driving-taxi/) > > [http://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-hit-the-road-in-singapore-1472102747](http://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-hit-the-road-in-singapore-1472102747) > > [http://bigstory.ap.org/article/615568b7668b452bbc8d2e2f3e5148e6/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-debut-singapore](http://bigstory.ap.org/article/615568b7668b452bbc8d2e2f3e5148e6/worlds-first-self-driving-taxis-debut-singapore) A 2.5 km test area with predefined stops and a human driver is not an autonomous taxi. Come back to us in 2018 when they expect to all be up and running for real. What will be interesting is when they have an autonomous taxi with no human driver and that is able to pick up and drop off anywhere a normal taxi could. ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/107 "2016-09-17T22:20:58Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > I think when people say they love to drive, most of them just love the freedom allowed by having a car. Or they think they love driving, but only because they associate it with that freedom. Given a choice between driving to a destination (and parking the car yourself, etc) vs. having something/someone drive you to the destination, most of us would choose the latter. How many billionaires do you know who drive _everywhere_ on their own, rather than using a chauffeur? It seem you never partner up in car before. :D:D No I’m driving!! No I’m driving. ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/108 "2016-09-17T22:27:45Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > 😕 As **Stranger** ’s link shows, most of them, at least as far as smartphones are concerned. Have you really not seen many people use this feature? :eek::eek::eek::eek:😕 > > \*\*Seriously, I talk to my phone and car to call people. \*\*I talk to my phone to find nearby gas stations, make schedules, dictate text messages, tell me the weather, set my thermostat, etc. And I think I’m particularly behind the curve on this compared with other people I know. Christ, my girlfriend in high school back in 1992 talked to her carphone (okay, in a very limited way, just to call people. I thought it was the coolest thing at the time.) This must be start trek crowd or futuristic crowd or under age 25 or 20 types thinking in future. ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/109 "2016-09-17T22:34:04Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > IMO you’re half-right. > > Expecting people to be passengers who’re ready to instantly be emergency drivers is silly, and a design for guaranteed failure. As you say. > > But there are lots of situations where a truly driverless (i.e. un-manually-drivable) car is untenable. Parking in a large grass field at an outdoor concert or fair. Dealing with driving around a rural accident where you need to pull onto the sloping drainage shoulder in the dirt to pass. Maneuvering 4 of them around a crowded repair garage. Etc. > > Those are situations where a Googlemobile will slow to a stop and sit there. > > A Better-mobile would slow to a stop and the driver would activate the seldom-used manual controls to deal with the situation. Once back within the car’s comfort zone (which encompasses all but 10 minutes a year of 90% of the populace’s driving), it can be switched back to automatic and the driver can go back to [del]watching porn[/del] reading Tolstoy. > > The manual controls may be buttons & sliders on a touchscreen, not a traditional wheel & pedals. But IMO they need to be someplace. Otherwise you’ve built an urban-suburban commute-mobile that, like the short ranged plug-in EVs, require their owners to own a spare car for their other missions. Which is a gigantic economic obstacle to adoption. As of now this technology is in the research and development it is the media and futuristic crowd that thinks this is the future. Remember technology does not make a market people do. It fine to have set technology but people have to want it. So out side a small number of people that will embrace this technology like the Jetpack it up to the market to pave the way. Look we have Jetpack today even some really good Jetpacks today but out side of hobbyist it has not taken off. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/110 "2016-09-17T23:08:29Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > I have not seen anyone talk to their smartphone or ipad. Even where every year the technology is getting better. > > They now even have Siri Mac OS X and I’m sure it better time before Microsoft has some thing similar for windows 10. They already have something similar to Siri; the Microsoft equivalent is called Cortana. Google and Amazon also have voice-enabled systems. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/111 "2016-09-18T04:37:16Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > This must be start trek crowd or futuristic crowd or under age 25 or 20 types thinking in future. I’m having difficulty parsing your sentence. Are you saying it’s “Star Trek”-y futuristic to talk to your car to phone somebody? With the “hands-off” laws for cellphones and driving, I’d think it’s pretty standard. There’s a button on my steering wheel for it on my 2014 Mazda, which is a middle-of-the-road car. Like I said, back in 1992 when I was 17, it seemed a bit sci-fi and futuristic, but now? Normal. If you’re not seeing it, I don’t know what to tell you. ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/112 "2016-09-18T05:22:45Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m having difficulty parsing your sentence. Are you saying it’s “Star Trek”-y futuristic to talk to your car to phone somebody? With the “hands-off” laws for cellphones and driving, I’d think it’s pretty standard. There’s a button on my steering wheel for it on my 2014 Mazda, which is a middle-of-the-road car. Like I said, back in 1992 when I was 17, it seemed a bit sci-fi and futuristic, but now? Normal. If you’re not seeing it, I don’t know what to tell you. High in cars have GPS, maps, car phone and computer interface (news, traffic, weather, road alerts, music, e-mail and car phone so on but most cars do not only the high in cars. Many people don’t have money to get high in cars. Some cars have interface for you smartphone. But we are talking high in cars not you average car people drive. Some vans and SUV’s even have TV’s in back for you kids to watch again we are talking high end cars that the average person does not have the money. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/113 "2016-09-18T06:15:16Z")
Any car that’s got bluetooth has “interface for your smartphone” on voice activation. My car is a Citröen C1 (their tiniest model) and it’s got a double interface for my smartphone: to use voice activation I need to use the bluetooth, but I can also use the phone as a music box via the USB connection which goes where the lighter used to be. And it’s not “high in”, it’s “high end”. It would really, really be nice if you ever told us where do you live, because it’s evident both that English is not your first language and that you don’t live where most other people here do, but we’re missing a key data point. I certainly expect Nigeria, India or Costa Rica to have self-driving cars later than Sweden or the United States because of the different road conditions, but I can tell you that cars sold new in Costa Rica in the last five years have bluetooth. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/114 "2016-09-18T06:22:23Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > Many people don’t have money to get high in cars. Well with the current pace of marijuana legalization and the ease in access and lower costs associated with popularity, combined with the advent of self-driving vehicles (“autos”), I expect that will change too. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/115 "2016-09-18T06:34:55Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > How many billionaires do you know who drive _everywhere_ on their own, rather than using a chauffeur? I don’t know their specific net worth, but one of Dad’s bosses favorite car was a re-bodied ex-F1 Ferrari; no room for a chauffeur. Several of the richest people I know (some of them, owners, CEOs or presidents of multinationals which everybody or almost everybody in these boards will have bought from) love to drive. Many of them view a chauffeur as a necessity for some trips, a way to take their office on the road, but when they can drive they do. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/116 "2016-09-18T13:47:27Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > IBut there are lots of situations where a truly driverless (i.e. un-manually-drivable) car is untenable. Parking in a large grass field at an outdoor concert or fair. Dealing with driving around a rural accident where you need to pull onto the sloping drainage shoulder in the dirt to pass. Maneuvering 4 of them around a crowded repair garage. Etc. 100% agree. A low speed ‘manual’ mode to handle truly unusual situations is something I would expect to see. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/117 "2016-09-18T13:48:48Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > But we are talking high in cars not you average car people drive. No, it’s a standard feature on many, if not most, heck, if not all, economy models made in the past few years, Mazda 3 included. Like I said, it was a novelty back in 1992. It’s almost 25 years later and as commonplace as everyone using GPS to get somewhere. But even when I had a non-bluetooth car, the easiest way to make a call while driving was to talk to the phone. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/118 "2016-09-18T14:09:16Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But there are lots of situations where a truly driverless (i.e. un-manually-drivable) car is untenable. Parking in a large grass field at an outdoor concert or fair. Dealing with driving around a rural accident where you need to pull onto the sloping drainage shoulder in the dirt to pass. Maneuvering 4 of them around a crowded repair garage. Etc. Agree. Every day I negotiate gravel potholed roads that need input to get around said pot holes. But that’s not even half of it. My driveway in winter is often impassable. Sometimes I have to take a few runs at it. If I decide that I really do have to plow again, I find a place on the ‘road’ out of the way of the plowing and ‘park’. Or what about my plow truck? I’ve been plowing my drive and often the road to my house for two decades. It is never the same, and often a difficult task. I would suspect that even the most advanced AI is going to say… Um, No. What about getting stuck, and having to winch out? Or having to very cautiously maneuver off road? I just don’t see an autonomous system being able to handle many things that I encounter (I’m a programmer), and I see these circumstances A LOT. I know I’m in the .01% and most don’t run into such circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/119 "2016-09-18T15:36:46Z")
What makes you think that a system with better vision of the road, better reactions, and far more control of power, braking and steering than you would be less able to handle those situations? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074/120 "2016-09-18T16:17:35Z")
Not trying to speak for **enipla** , but I suspect most folks’ objections are based on the assumption the cars will be programmed for the common situations first. Including the common emergencies like kids running out into the street. The situations such as **enipla** ’s that apply to a tiny minority for a tiny percentage of total fleet road-miles will be ignored. Because it’s sound economics to do so. Admittedly that assumes the model for the software is mostly algorithmic, as opposed to a more holistic AI approach. In **enipla** ’s driveway you can’t see the surface or the edges once the snow falls. You have to know from past history in the summer where those are. And you have to know / remember where the sink hole was yesterday. Or else you’re going to get stuck again, just like you did yesterday. Could a suitable AI eventually embody that kind of learning & remembering? Sure in principle. Will early self-driving cars operate with learning and memory about such features on their frequent routes? Darn good question. My bet, as a True Beleiver for self-driving cars, is “probably not.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/re-self-driving-cars-people-talk-as-if-this-is-a-few-years-away-this-seems-nuts-to-me/764074.md?page=7)