# Reaction to early weather forecasting? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 23, 2016, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463 "2016-05-23T16:14:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/21 "2016-05-24T03:49:22Z")
> [@usedtobe](#): > > I heard that the ancient Pharaohs had people who could tell him when the annual Nile flood would come. > > He would then “order” the river to flood. > > Fools the rubes. > > (the flood is what brought down fertile soil - it was viewed as a ‘good thing’) Not quite. The Pharaoh, at the behest of the priests (who were the ones who could predict the flood) would ask the gods to cause the Nile to flood. And they didn’t think - so far as we know - that the gods only flooded the river because the Pharaoh asked them too. The gods would make up their own minds about whether and when to flood the river. The point of the Pharaoh’s intercession was to please the gods by acknowledging their transcendent power over the flooding. And, of course, if the gods were pleased, then they were more likely to decide to arrange for a bounteous flooding. ---
**Author:** ![Me\_Billy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Me\_Billy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Me_Billy)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/22 "2016-05-24T13:20:53Z")
I know when they first went into space and could then see hurricanes forming, everybody was quite glad they could predict those! It was a _very_ welcome advance. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/23 "2016-05-24T13:50:15Z")
I knew that Almanacs had been around for a long time and, while definitely not trying to give minute by minute probabilistic updates, included weather predictions. After all, it’s not as if “windy in the Ebro Valley” takes a genius… it’s the default setting! The [Almanaque de Bristol](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almanaque_de_Bristol) is in continuous publication since 1832, it is published in New Jersey for multiple Latin American markets and doesn’t get listed in the English Wiki entry for [Almanac](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almanac). The Calendario Zaragozano ([link in Spanish](http://calendariozaragozano.net/historia.html)) has been around since 1840 and its name is a reference to one which used to be published back in the 16th century. Their Greek name turns out to be Parapegma (well, in Greek letters) and they’ve been around for… quite a while. The oldest combined other astronomic information with the kind of stuff we now call “the weather”, which after all isn’t so different from having the weather man tell us about upcoming eclipses or star showers. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/24 "2016-05-24T14:30:46Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > I knew that Almanacs had been around for a long time… The purported long-range weather forecasts in almanacs are complete nonsense, on a par with astrology. Any perceived success is confirmation bias. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/25 "2016-05-24T15:58:34Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > The Enlightenment brought a qualitative and fundamental change in our approach to knowledge. Respect for evidence, the development of the scientific method, an understanding of the need for rigorous experimental methods to counter human cognitive flaws. > > For weather forecasting in particular, the development of rigorous statistical methods and the technology for rapid data transfer across large distances did indeed mark a point where it quite quickly “went from guessing to remarkably accurate science”. Now, I’m no expert on weather forecasting; all I know is from the Wikipedia article. But from that, the Enlightenment may have been all that and a bag of chips, but all it brought to weather forecasting was the barometer. Which was useful and improved things, but not in a world-view-shattering way. Rapid data transfer didn’t happen until the mid 1800’s and even then it started slowly and very gradually got better. Over the next century and a half, there were significant advances in theory, computers brought greatly improved modeling, and satellite sensing was another step forward in data transfer, but no single dramatic change. I also submit that anyone impressed by modern (1850+) weather prediction will have had many, many chances to be much more impressed by other aspects of modern science. ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/26 "2016-05-24T16:22:33Z")
Actually, there are early examples of weather forecasting devices that are absolutely accurate: [http://s33.postimg.org/i26l2b933/weather\_forecasting.jpg](http://s33.postimg.org/i26l2b933/weather_forecasting.jpg) The scientific genius is remarkable, even by modern standards. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_T](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Gary\_T](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_T)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/27 "2016-05-24T16:28:11Z")
> [@pianodave](#): > > I hear what you are saying, but I am not sure I can understand how someone who sees patterns could ever believe that there is a supernatural force at the same time. Maybe they believe their deity created these patterns? Is that what happened? Of course. Plenty of people believe in God as the creator of the universe. If he’s capable of doing that, why wouldn’t he be capable of creating physical laws, patterns, and jillions of other things that humans discover? In fact, if he created the universe, how could he NOT have created the patterns? The patterns just show how clever God is. They don’t disprove his existence. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463/28 "2016-05-24T17:14:45Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > The purported long-range weather forecasts in almanacs are complete nonsense, on a par with astrology. Any perceived success is confirmation bias. Well, like I said, it doesn’t take a lot to predict wind in the Ebro Valley. They weren’t trying for more accuracy that that, and succeeding in such a prediction is not confirmation bias - it’s knowledge of the weather patterns for the location, as what’s weird in most of the Ebro Valley is when the wind isn’t blowing (most because the Lleida Well is an exception). But it’s not as if people had not been used to weather predictions before weather satellites. Those run by locals based on their knowledge of local weather patterns tend to be pretty good. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reaction-to-early-weather-forecasting/755463.md?page=1)