# Reality finally sinking in - Iraq expectations lowered **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 15, 2005, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094 "2005-08-15T14:26:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/41 "2005-08-16T06:41:44Z")
> [@World Eater](#): > > Nah, they’ll probably recycle that footage of the SH statue getting yanked down, and repeat how we liberated Iraq ad nauseum. I still remember that FOX news called that footage “gold” for the Bush administration, that footage remains IMO the first big lie of the occupation: [http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2838.htm](http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2838.htm) > [@](#): > > The BBC website had the honesty to say that “dozens” of Iraqis were involved, but this grain of truth was swamped by the overwhelming impression of mass joy. The radio and TV were even worse. ---
**Author:** ![Siege](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dbc845/32.png) [@Siege](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siege)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/42 "2005-08-16T10:27:06Z")
The funny thing is, a few years ago when I opposed this war precisely because I thought it would wind up like this, I was called “unpatriotic”. I’m not unpatriotic, just realistic. CJ ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/43 "2005-08-16T11:17:03Z")
Pretty sad that Iraqis squabbling over the constitution is labelled “democracy at work”. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/44 "2005-08-16T12:56:56Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Then, you need a Kurdish strongman to emerge from the blood and chaos to declare a Kurdish Islamic Republic. This stuff takes time. Only if you have large ethnic groups in conflict over the same territory. Not the case here - the northern reaches of what has been Iraq since the 1920’s are Kurd-dominated, with some recently-transplanted Sunni Arab population that’s already been effectively subjugated. All plausible forms of the next temporarily pan-Iraqi government have the Kurdish region internally autonomous, as it has effectively been since GW1, and with fairly well-defined borders at that (including substantial oil fields). No civil war is on the horizon - who would the opponent be? If the next Kurdish leader, “strongman” or otherwise, tells the mullahs in Baghdad “Goodbye and good luck, the West’s promise to recognize our independence is just as old as Iraq itself and we’re finally going to make it happen”, who’s going to stop him? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/45 "2005-08-16T13:12:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Only if you have large ethnic groups in conflict over the same territory. Not the case here - the northern reaches of what has been Iraq since the 1920’s are Kurd-dominated, with some recently-transplanted Sunni Arab population that’s already been effectively subjugated. All plausible forms of the next temporarily pan-Iraqi government have the Kurdish region internally autonomous, as it has effectively been since GW1, and with fairly well-defined borders at that (including substantial oil fields). > > No civil war is on the horizon - who would the opponent be? If the next Kurdish leader, “strongman” or otherwise, tells the mullahs in Baghdad “Goodbye and good luck, the West’s promise to recognize our independence is just as old as Iraq itself and we’re finally going to make it happen”, who’s going to stop him? Except that the West isn’t going to honor that. The reason is Turkey. Turkey is hostile to a Kurdish national state, as there are Kurdish rebels in their own eastern provinces, & Istambul fears seccession. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/46 "2005-08-16T13:18:20Z")
So what is the West able to do about it? Is the Turkish army going to roll over the border and suppress the Kurdish Assembly? Is any other army? The Turks have their hands full with the uprising inside their own country as it is. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/47 "2005-08-16T13:35:11Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > So what is the West able to do about it? Is the Turkish army going to roll over the border and suppress the Kurdish Assembly? Is any other army? The Turks have their hands full with the uprising inside their own country as it is. The Turks quite likely _would_ cross the border, into a separate Kurdistan. After all, it’s rather likely that the Kurdish rebels have been “border-hopping” to avoid the Turkish military. Istambul may view this as killing 2 birds with one Division of armor. [A helpful profile of Turkey.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/1022222.stm) 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/48 "2005-08-16T13:43:57Z")
To the contrary, [Erdogan is taking a conciliatory approach, the only effective one available to him](http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2005/08/mil-050812-26bd5226.htm). Do you really think he’s foolish enough to do what Bush has done, with much less military ability at his disposal? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/49 "2005-08-16T13:53:43Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > To the contrary, [Erdogan is taking a conciliatory approach, the only effective one available to him](http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2005/08/mil-050812-26bd5226.htm). Do you really think he’s foolish enough to do what Bush has done, with much less military ability at his disposal? He doesn’t have to hold terrain or form a government like Bush. He merely needs to kill Kurds. **Do not forget what happened to the Armenians in Turkey!** No, I think it best that there be no independent Kurdistans. Best for the Kurds, most of all. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/50 "2005-08-16T13:55:13Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Think we’ll get footage of the helicoptors pulling out, ala Vietnam? Nah, they know how…petulant our president is. He’s liable to have everyone turn around or just start launching airstrikes if they Iraqis don’t hold it together until our surface groups get past 12 miles out. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/51 "2005-08-16T14:05:37Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > He doesn’t have to hold terrain or form a government like Bush. > He merely needs to kill Kurds. > **Do not forget what happened to the Armenians in Turkey!** I hope you’re joking. This isn’t like you at all. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/52 "2005-08-16T14:53:12Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I hope you’re joking. This isn’t like you at all. I’m **not advocating it** , dammit, I’m very afraid of what the Turks might do. And they did it before. So, maybe there’s cause to be worried. ---
**Author:** ![Cerri](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3bc359/32.png) [@Cerri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cerri)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/53 "2005-08-16T14:54:08Z")
> [@Siege](#): > > The funny thing is, a few years ago when I opposed this war precisely because I thought it would wind up like this, I was called “unpatriotic”. I’m not unpatriotic, just realistic. > > CJ Ditto. You know, I can say with all honesty, I’ve never been so saddened and disappointed to be proven right. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/54 "2005-08-16T16:31:08Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > I’m very afraid of what the Turks might do. > And they did it before. > So, maybe there’s cause to be worried. There’s not quite as much reason as there is to be worried that Germany will invade Belgium again. Ater all, they’ve done that _twice_, and even more recently than the Turkish invasion of Armenia. Don’t you think the world is perhaps just a slightly different place now than it was a century ago? ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/55 "2005-08-16T16:53:58Z")
Can’t trust those Turks! Look what they did to Constantinople. Obliterated from the map, it was! ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/56 "2005-08-16T17:59:47Z")
> [@Biggirl](#): > > Can’t trust those Turks! Look what they did to Constantinople. Obliterated from the map, it was! Yeah, but that’s nobody’s business but the Turks’… ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/57 "2005-08-16T19:02:07Z")
> [@Biggirl](#): > > Can’t trust those Turks! Look what they did to Constantinople. Obliterated from the map, it was! Damnit! I had a date in Constantinople. ☹ Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/58 "2005-08-16T19:17:46Z")
Better than an appointment in Samarra, at least at present. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/59 "2005-08-16T21:12:38Z")
> [@Mtgman](#): > > Damnit! I had a date in Constantinople. ☹ She’s waiting in Istanbul. Have you noticed that once They Might Be Giants manages to get a toehold in your mental hearing centers, you’ll never be free again? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2005, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/60 "2005-08-16T21:53:29Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Don’t you think the world is perhaps just a slightly different place now than it was a century ago? Tell it to the Tutsis. :dubious: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094.md?page=4)