# Reality finally sinking in - Iraq expectations lowered **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 15, 2005, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094 "2005-08-15T14:26:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Larry\_Mudd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f14d63/32.png) [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2005, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/141 "2005-08-20T20:22:47Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > So now, instead of armed militia groups vying for control of Iraq, several of which actually support the U.S., we have armed groups that all hate us (except maybe the Kurds?)… That’s a bit naive. Sorry, but the Kurds hate y’all, too. They remember that they were cynically used and then fucked up the arse by the Nixon administration, even if you don’t. Let me guess: You think they’re warm and squishy for Uncle Sam because he turned on Saddam, right? And they don’t like Saddam because of that little genocidal campaign, right? So we connect the dots and they’ve all got framed “GOD BLESS AMERICA” samples hanging in their parlours. Sorry, they remember that the U.S. was supporting Saddam when that unpleasantness took place, looked the other way, and kept supplying Saddam’s regime with cash and materiel. > [@Ludovic](#): > > …since we let Saddam kill all the pro-american resistance. You know _why_ Saddam was allowed (perhaps even encouraged) to kill off the resistance, right? Because that resistance was Shi’ite, and it was felt that a secular government like Saddam’s, warts and all, was a better alternative (from a U.S. POV) than the possibility of a radical Islamist government, like Iran’s. “Pro-American resistance?” Right. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2005, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/142 "2005-08-21T16:18:05Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > I think it’s very telling that a knee-jerk rightwing dimbulb like **Iskander** can’t think of any better line to justify the Iraq misadventure than “Well Clinton would have screwed up just as bad!” Of course, if the war were going well, **Iskander** and his ilk would never suggest in a million years that either Clinton or Gore would have had the balls to do it. That fact that he is alleging that Clinton would have done it is pretty much a concession that even he understands the whole thing is completely FUBAR. > > This would be hilarious if it weren’t so pathetic. Sigh. Must be another secret Limbaugh admirer. Opposites attract. You so much weaned on conservative talk shows, you can’t recognize free-thinking argument at all. I’m not saying that “Clinton would have screwed up just as bad!”; I’m saying war is terrible business, whether Kosovo or Iraq. The bigger the war, the more horrible it gets. However, prez after prez, across party lines, somehow find it necessary to wage wars. Could it be there is no other way? I always maintained that “either Clinton or Gore would have had the balls to do it”, and would do similar thing, perhaps a little better or worse. Even much maligned Carter would do closely as well as Reagan against USSR. Because there was no other way then and there is no other way now! If anything, Dem. presidents are more warlike then Rep. ones. Meanwhile, opposition always snipes from the sidelines. Bush was trashing Clinton Kosovo tactics, now Dems are trashing Bush. Much as you contort yourselves, you are not saying anything new. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2005, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/143 "2005-08-21T16:37:34Z")
Beyond lowered expectations, now there’s a real whiff of **Failure** in the air: Iraq Sunnis Urge U.S., U.N. to Block Draft > [@](#): > > One day before the deadline for Iraq’s new constitution, Sunni Arab negotiators appealed Sunday to the United States and the international community to prevent Shiites and Kurds from pushing a draft charter through parliament without Sunni consent. ---
**Author:** ![Spiny\_Norman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Spiny\_Norman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiny_Norman)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/144 "2005-08-22T02:35:08Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > I’m saying war is terrible business, whether Kosovo or Iraq. The bigger the war, the more horrible it gets. However, prez after prez, across party lines, somehow find it necessary to wage wars. Could it be there is no other way? What the fuck ? Are you seriously implying that it’s simply your country’s destiny to start war after war with no choice in the matter ? So to make it completely clear: Yes, there is another way. Iraq was a war entirely by choice, and you and yours very well knew it, yet you pushed for it, against the warnings of your allies, a good part of the US electorate and basically speaking the rest of the world. But war you wanted and war you got. Now you have the fucking gall to come wringing your hands and say “it could be there is no other way”, as if you were just a helpless pawn of destiny. You were not. You got the dirty little war you wanted so badly. Do not try to unload the responsibility, thanks. Sheesh. “no other way”. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/145 "2005-08-22T03:30:09Z")
> [@Spiny Norman](#): > > What the fuck ? Are you seriously implying that it’s simply your country’s destiny to start war after war with no choice in the matter ? > > So to make it completely clear: Yes, there is another way. Iraq was a war entirely by choice, and you and yours very well knew it, yet you pushed for it… I pushed for it? Sincerely, my influence on starting the war is infinetissimal in comparison to Kerry’s and Hillary’s. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/146 "2005-08-22T03:36:10Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Beyond lowered expectations, now there’s a real whiff of **Failure** in the air: > Iraq Sunnis Urge U.S., U.N. to Block Draft Can someone explain this to me? 1. “Election” is coming up 2. Sunnis boycott election 3. Sunnis do (expectedly) badly in election 4. Sunnis bitch about results of election Can someone explain this to me? Or is it just a matter of “We thought the elections wouldn’t be held because we were boycotting them - since they weren’t cancelled we’d like to take back our boycotting and have a do-over”? Are they really that…immature? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/147 "2005-08-22T03:57:38Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > Sigh. Must be another secret Limbaugh admirer. Opposites attract. You so much weaned on conservative talk shows, you can’t recognize free-thinking argument at all. I’ve never listened to Limbaugh, nor to any other conservative talk show, so that’s certainly not it. > [@](#): > > I’m not saying that “Clinton would have screwed up just as bad!”; I’m saying war is terrible business, whether Kosovo or Iraq. The bigger the war, the more horrible it gets. However, prez after prez, across party lines, somehow find it necessary to wage wars. Could it be there is no other way? I couldn’t reply better to this than \*\*Spiny Norman \*\* already has. You are a true fucking moron. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/148 "2005-08-22T04:10:52Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > I pushed for it? Yep. It’s amazing what a million pig ignorant ants all pushing in the same direction can do. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/149 "2005-08-22T04:25:17Z")
> [@Spiny Norman](#): > > Iraq was a war entirely by choice, and you and yours very well knew it, yet you pushed for it, against the warnings of your allies, a good part of the US electorate and basically speaking the rest of the world. But war you wanted and war you got. Normally NI was wont to be about twelve feet from snout to tail, but when Spiny Norman was depressed NI could be anything up to eight hundred yards long ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/150 "2005-08-22T04:27:20Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Are they really that…immature? Nope, they just recognize a good bargaining position when they see one. [TAL](http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html), also called the interim constitution: > [@](#): > > Article 61. > > (A) The National Assembly shall write the draft of the permanent constitution by no later than 15 August 2005. > > (B) The draft permanent constitution shall be presented to the Iraqi people for approval in a general referendum to be held no later than 15 October 2005. In the period leading up to the referendum, the draft constitution shall be published and widely distributed to encourage a public debate about it among the people. > > (C) The general referendum will be successful and the draft constitution ratified if a majority of the voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of the voters in three or more governorates do not reject it. Regardless of the results of January’s elections, the Sunnis comprise a majority in Anbar, Salahadin, and Nineveh provinces. In other words, they can kill an unpalatable constitution if they choose to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/151 "2005-08-22T04:36:14Z")
[Iraq’s constitution could be seen as a draft ‘peace pact’ for warring parties.](http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0822/p01s02-woiq.html) ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/152 "2005-08-22T12:15:59Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > I pushed for it? > > Sincerely, my influence on starting the war is infinetissimal in comparison to Kerry’s and Hillary’s. Take heart; your ignorance is far from infinetissimal, especially compared to Kerry’s and Hillary’s. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/153 "2005-08-22T13:25:52Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Can someone explain this to me? > > 1. “Election” is coming up > 2. Sunnis boycott election > 3. Sunnis do (expectedly) badly in election > 4. Sunnis bitch about results of election Tribalism seems much stronger than nationalism there, which is pretty typical for nonindustrial postcolonial nondemocracies with nonorganic borders. Thumbnail: The Sunnis have been in power for decades, and have used it oppressively, but they’re a minority. A real election means they lose to a different faction, much larger than themselves, and with scores to settle. The longer the Sunnis can avoid the Shiites gaining power, especially with some veneer of legitimacy, the better, er, less bad for them. Meanwhile, for those Sunnis who see the Shiite revenge as inevitable, it’s better to fight back first, eh? And if the Americans are on the Shiite side by pushing this democracy stuff, they’re the enemy too. The Kurds? They get their own nation one way or another, with little or no fighting. There aren’t many Arabs in the region, and the Shiites figure to be too busy establishing control over the rest. All the Kurds want from this new constitution is the right to secede. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/154 "2005-08-22T20:03:19Z")
Bush on today’s constitutional consensus: > [@](#): > > Now Iraq’s leaders are once again defying the terrorists and pessimists by completing work on a democratic constitution. The establishment of a democratic constitution will be a landmark event in the history of Iraq and the history of the Middle East. **All of Iraq’s main ethnic and religious groups are working together on this vital project.** All made the courageous choice to join the political process, and together they will produce a constitution that reflects the values and traditions of the Iraqi people. [Speech at Utah VFW](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050822-1.html) It’s past midnight in Baghdad now. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/155 "2005-08-22T20:11:58Z")
[A somewhat different take](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.main/index.html) > [@](#): > > Shiites and Kurds have agreed on the issue of federalism – the degree of power held by provinces versus that held by a centralized government – while the Sunnis haven’t come onboard. > … > Sunni members of the committee rejected the move, with negotiator Saleh Mutlag saying the draft would be a losing proposition “for the Americans and even the Iraqis, even those what are going to be in the government.” > > “This constitution does not include the Sunni voice,” Mutlag said. “It doesn’t include other voices in Iraq.” So what’s the beef with federalism, which so many Americans defend as such an important principle for ourselves? We went through this in the 1850’s and 60’s already, sound familiar? > [@](#): > > Federalism – which would split the country into as many as three regions with some degree of autonomy – has been one of the major blocks delaying a draft constitution. > > The issue hinges on control of Iraq’s oil reserves, which are mostly in the Shiite-majority south and the Kurdish-majority north. > > Sunnis, who live mostly in the oil-devoid central region of the country, oppose a federalist system that would keep oil profits in the hands of regional governments. Look for two more flags in the UN in a couple of years or less. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/156 "2005-08-22T20:18:38Z")
Looks like they made it! Frankly I won’t see how Iraq will be any different tomorrow, then it was yesterday, but at least Bush gets to tote some “progress”. :rolleyes: [http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.main/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.main/index.html) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) – A draft Iraqi constitution Monday was delivered to national assembly lawmakers – _but with some points still needing to be thrashed out in the assembly._ Ah yes, the devil is in the details ain’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/157 "2005-08-22T20:29:13Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > “Now Iraq’s leaders are once again defying the terrorists and pessimists by completing work on a democratic constitution. The establishment of a democratic constitution will be a landmark event in the history of Iraq and the history of the Middle East. All of Iraq’s main ethnic and religious groups are working together on this vital project. All made the courageous choice to join the political process, and together they will produce a constitution that reflects the values and traditions of the Iraqi people.” Well, that’s what you get when your president doesn’t read the newspapers – a nice, heartwarming divorce from reality. In reality, the Shi’ites and Kurds decided to go it alone, cutting out the Sunnis almost completely over the past week. They have the votes in Parliament to get away with it in the short term, but what they don’t have is the votes in enough of the provinces to pass the referendum in October. What are we left with? _Status quo ante,_ I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/158 "2005-08-22T20:48:11Z")
> [@World Eater](#): > > Looks like they made it! > [http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.main/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.main/index.html) That’s not clear yet. There are also stories like [this:](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050822-1.html) > [@](#): > > Negotiators finished the draft on Monday and prepared to submit it to parliament as the lawmakers convened minutes before midnight. But the negotiators \*\*withdrew the draft in the final minutes \*\*because of fierce resistance from Sunnis over issues including federalism, which Sunnis fear could cut them out of most of the country’s vast oil wealth. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/159 "2005-08-22T22:03:39Z")
[Nitty-gritty takes long time](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erie_Triangle): > [@](#): > > Most of northwestern Pennsylvania came under Anglo-American control following a **1784** treaty with the Iroquois Confederacy. The following year, a boundary dispute between New York and Pennsylvania erupted… > > The Triangle Lands problematically fell under neither New York nor Pennsylvania’s charter, while both Connecticut and Massachusetts also spoke up with claims derived from their original colonial sea-to-sea grants… > > Following some pressure from the new federal government, all four states surrended their claims to that entity, which then, in **1792** , turned around and sold final rights to the 202,187 acres (81,822 hectares, or 818.22 km², or 315.91 m²) of land to Pennsylvania for 75¢ per acre or $151,640.25. Minimal compensation was also provided to Native Americans for their original cession… [How did Pennsylvania reward Federal Gov’t for all the help?](http://www.rootsweb.com/~paerie/bates/batesVIII.htm) > [@](#): > > When the time came for closing the transaction, the State, with Quaker shrewdness, offered one of the funded bonds of the General Government, commonly known as “continental certificates,” which were then in decidedly bad credit, and demanded that interest should be allowed, according to the terms of its fact. This was rather a surprise to the Federal authorities, and a **long correspondence ensued** , in which the Commonwealth seems to have had the better of the argument. After **considerable delay** , her legal right to pay in the manner proposed was conceded, and she turned over the bond and received credit for the accumulated interest, as is shown in the bill of sale above printed. It is apparent that the State drove a very sharp bargain, but whether the transaction was much to her honor, may admit of some debate. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2005, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094/160 "2005-08-22T22:09:11Z")
[Sunnis threaten civil war as Iraq constitution deadline extended](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-1746919,00.html) > [@](#): > > The (Bush) Administration hoped that involving Iraq’s Sunni minority in the constitutional drafting process would help to bring it back into the political mainstream and sap the violent insurgency. > > But that prospect looked remote as Sunnis lined up to condemn their marginalisation and the federalism enshrined in the draft text. > > “We reject the political process as it is now,” Saleh al-Mutlak, a prominent Sunni negotiator, told reporters outside the parliament chamber where members gathered last night. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reality-finally-sinking-in-iraq-expectations-lowered/317094.md?page=9)