# Reason why Trump's approval ratings are falling? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2019, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623 "2019-09-03T13:48:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2019, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/61 "2019-09-05T16:31:15Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The funny part of the story is that I change my Twitter handle from time to time. Often it is a thinly veiled Cubs reference like Dr. Addison Sheffield…" Oh, _that_ Dr. Addison Sheffield. Wait, who the hell is Dr. Addison Sheffield? 🙂 > [@](#): > > This is where our assumptions are different. It is entirely rational to weight fresh C+ data higher than four week old A+ data. It’s a C+ not an F-. I would be stunned if 538 did not have some sort of time decay for polls built into their model. A rational analyst strikes a balance between using the highest quality data and the freshest data. This was my first thought about DSeid’s hypothetical. A C+ is far from perfect, but would it’s weight not be adjusted relative to an older A+ poll, even by a small amount? Reading again, I think DSeid actually addressed this… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2019, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/62 "2019-09-05T16:56:34Z")
In a hypothetical world with only two pollsters? Not by much. I’d be saying that we can only reliably report data out monthly and in between we can get a _hint_ as to whether or not an event has had some impact but only a hint. C+ is a pretty poor rating and such a house should be, by itself, _mostly_ ignored (only worthwhile in aggregate with many others weighted lightly). But of course the world we have is multiple polling houses reporting at different intervals with different ratings. The more heavily weighted daily tracker (with each day discounted) would be YouGov which went from 7/8-9’s of -8 to 8/27-28’s of -11. With some daily noise of course and using the RV set. (Hitting -13 some.) Net drop of 3 as the trend. Again consistent with what 538 reported out. Harris and Rasmussen are rated low have each little impact by themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2019, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/63 "2019-09-05T17:48:18Z")
It’s not a hypothetical world in which there are only two pollsters. I’m asking about entering hypothetical data from exactly two hypothetical pollsters into the 538 model that exists in the real world. For the sake of argument assume these two hypothetical pollsters have a perfect zero house effect. > [@DSeid](#): > > Harris and Rasmussen are rated low have each little impact by themselves. This is almost certainly not true. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2019, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/64 "2019-09-05T22:33:24Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Oh, _that_ Dr. Addison Sheffield. Wait, who the hell is Dr. Addison Sheffield? 🙂 I’m not sure if you’re really asking for more information here, but the right field gate at Wrigley Field is right at the intersection of Addison and Sheffield. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/65 "2019-09-06T00:44:53Z")
“1060 West Addison… that’s Wrigley Field!” ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/66 "2019-09-06T03:33:40Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > One of my side projects is a Python script that pulls data from the 538 publicly available dataset everyday at 8:55am MT and computes the difference between Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen pollsters on Trump approval. It then plots the last 90 days of that data and Tweets out an image of that plot. > > Here’s the one form 5 minutes ago… [link](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1168900262947430400/photo/1). > > Almost all of the variation in the last 90 days or so has been due to Rasmussen. Wow, that’s great! What other side projects do you have? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/67 "2019-09-06T03:58:18Z")
> [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](#): > > Wow, that’s great! What other side projects do you have? I think the following is a complete list of my Twitter-bots. Baseball [NL West Daily Tracker](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169626263960477701) [NL Central Daily Tracker](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169628773823631362) [Cubs Cardinals Comparator](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169630040474054656) [Cubs Brewers Comparator](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169627523048603649) [Cubs Cards Brewers Three Way Race](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169629023762182147) [Ian Happ News Tracker](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1168886375447318528) [Rockies Taco Bot](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1168939228685881348) Miscellaneous [Daily Florida Man](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169671554600325120) [538 Congress Tracker Tracker](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1154385325310877696) [Iowa Caucus Countdown/Throw Shade at Ted Cruz](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1169346910915682305) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/68 "2019-09-06T15:25:55Z")
For anyone interested in how the 538 model actually works (and why a C+ daily tracker is CERTAINLY of little impact to it) [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-donald-trumps-approval-ratings/) is their fairly detailed explanation. While going back and forth with an individual poster is silly, some here might be interested in the weeds of their methods, and the details do inform as to the original op. Again, of note, they handle frequently reporting houses thusly: > [@](#): > > If it does so more often than about once per 20 days, each instance of the poll is discounted so that the pollster doesn’t dominate the average just because it’s so prolific. Daily tracking polls also receive special handling from the formula so that interviews are not double-counted. The maximal impact of a polling result is determined by the weight as determined by its rating. That rating also determines how quickly the weight drops off. > [@](#): > > The worse the pollster’s rating, the quicker it encounters diminishing returns in our formula Each instance of a C+ house not only has little weight but its weight decays very quickly; each instance of a highly rated house not only has high weight but its weight decays slowly. Each instance of a C+ daily tracker has a small fraction of the maximum a C+ result could have and decays quickly. From there the curve is drawn using local polynomial regression with aggressive smoothing. Their discussion of uncertainty is the most pertinent to this thread however. Short version is that the shaded bars on their graph - those are best understood (but not really) as 90% confidence bars. Note that they go +/- roughly 4 or 5 points. In fact Trump’s numbers have been within +/- 2 of a net approval of -12 most of the time over the past year and a half. It is likely not worthwhile to read too much into movements until they are staying out of that range for more than a few days. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/69 "2019-09-06T15:33:39Z")
At any rate, the massive backlash that will propel Trump to victory in 2020 has not yet manifested? Well, that’s reassuring… ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/70 "2019-09-06T15:39:47Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > At any rate, the massive backlash that will propel Trump to victory in 2020 has not yet manifested? Well, that’s reassuring… His approval ratings are already high enough for him to win. Trump’s favorability rating right before the election was 40%, same as his current approval rating. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/71 "2019-09-06T15:55:40Z")
> [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](#): > > Wow, that’s great! What other side projects do you have? I’ve got to ask, what exactly impresses you about a graph that shows one pollster has different movement than the average of all other pollsters? Or are you just impressed by the existence of a Twitter bot? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/72 "2019-09-06T16:02:21Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > For anyone interested in how the 538 model actually works (and why a C+ daily tracker is CERTAINLY of little impact to it) [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-donald-trumps-approval-ratings/) is their fairly detailed explanation. Nothing you have posted after this supports your level of certainty. I have read the same things that you have about how the 538 model and have come to different conclusions than you have. Can’t we simply disagree without you several times attributing to me positions I don’t hold and belligerently creating bizarre conspiracy theories that require me assuming Nate Silver is lying. Some of what you just posted actually supports my argument. “The worse the pollster’s rating, the quicker it encounters diminishing returns in our formula.” Implies that even A+ pollsters impact on the model decays over time which is consistent with fresh C+ data having more impact on the model than four week old A+ data. 538 took steps so that a daily tracker wouldn’t dominate the model, but they didn’t reduce it to the point where it couldn’t effect the model at all, your certainty to to the contrary notwithstanding. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/73 "2019-09-06T16:09:22Z")
You are being ridiculous. Of fucking course the Rasmussen numbers have some effect or else they wouldn’t be included at all. That doesn’t remotely support your idea that they are a driving force behind the minor dip in approval rating. And right in your quote of DSeid, he says little impact not a certainty of no impact. Jesus. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/74 "2019-09-06T16:14:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You are being ridiculous. Of fucking course the Rasmussen numbers have some effect or else they wouldn’t be included at all. That doesn’t remotely support your idea that they are a driving force behind the minor dip in approval rating. The point of my last post post was that all other things being equal, they certainly could be. The data I’ve posted in other posts does indeed support this possibility, although it doesn’t prove that Rasmussen is solely responsible. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/75 "2019-09-06T16:21:37Z")
Your data doesn’t support the possibility, it merely fails to refute it. Big difference. Your data shows nothing other than Rasmussen is different than the polling average. Eta: and I hope to god you know that when Nate said “I’m not a polling expert like Dr. L.S.D. Snapple…” , he was joking. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/76 "2019-09-06T16:23:54Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Your data doesn’t support the possibility, it merely fails to refute it. Big difference. Your data shows nothing other than Rasmussen is different than the polling average. And that difference is in the same direction at the same time as the events that inspired this thread. Therefore it is possible that that difference is partially responsible for those events. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/77 "2019-09-06T16:31:46Z")
It is no doubt partially responsible, just like every other pollster that moved downwards is partially responsible. It’s a meaningless truism. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/78 "2019-09-06T16:47:16Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It is no doubt partially responsible, […] You should be having this argument with **DSeid**. He strongly disagrees as far as I can tell. Here’s my argument in three bullet points. [ol] [li]All other things held equal, Rasmussen can move the needle on the 538 tracker.[/li][li]In the time period in question I have posted evidence that Rasmussen moved in the direction of the dip that inspired this thread.[/li][li]In the time period in question I have posted evidence that all other things held equal.[/li][/ol] I’m not sure which of those you disagree with anymore. I posted as an interesting observation and other posters also found it interesting. I guess you don’t find it interesting. Can’t you just say that once and move on? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/79 "2019-09-06T16:52:26Z")
> [@](#): > > In the time period in question I have posted evidence that all other things held equal. Are you saying Rasmussen was the only pollster that moved downwards in the last 40 days? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2019, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623/80 "2019-09-06T18:04:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Are you saying Rasmussen was the only pollster that moved downwards in the last 40 days? Clearly not. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/reason-why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-falling/839623.md?page=5)