Record Number of Women Childless-What long term impacts on society if this continues?

Saying ‘What are the consequences?’ implies that there are consequences, and because when one says ‘consequence’ one is referring to negative effects, you’re starting with the premise that this event is bad or wrong, and you just want to know in what ways it is.

I stated the position that it’s unfair to assume that there would be consequences. The real question should be ‘Are there consequences, and if so, what would they be?’ Don’t assume that they already exist and that all you have to do is label them.

It’s a logical fallacy to start from the false premise of assuming there will be consequences to an event or action.

::scratches head::
I think ALL actions and events have consequences.

How in the world is that a logical fallacy? (not listed on any lists of logical fallicies that I’ve seen).

Can you think of any actions that have NO consequences?

From reading the OP and the article, it seemed that ‘consequences’ were taken to mean that there would be ‘negative effects.’

That there will be negative effects is not an established fact, nor an agreed upon belief. Therefore it is a false premise to assume that those negative effects, or consequences, necessarily exist only to be identified.

A false premise is a logical fallacy.

I think you are guilty of not a false premise, but rather a false definition.

Miriam Webster:

Main Entry: con·se·quence
1 : a conclusion derived through logic : INFERENCE
2 : something produced by a cause or necessarily following from a set of conditions
3 a : importance with respect to power to produce an effect
Dictionary.com:
con·se·quence

  1. Something that logically or naturally follows from an action or condition. See Synonyms at effect.
  2. The relation of a result to its cause.
  3. A logical conclusion or inference.

No mention anywhere of a “negative effect.” You are making an unwarrented assumption about the definition of a word. It is simply inaccurate.

Another cite for the demographic transition model.

I don’t understand why the article has ~the same tone as the 8th chapter of The Stand. In the 70’s, when the release of Ehrlich and Ehrlich’s book * The Population Explosion* began the whole overpopulation scare, the demographic transition was Civilization’s Last Hope.

Also released in the 1970’s: the non-classic book Ice: The Ultimate Disaster, about the glaciers that were supposed to destroy us all by 2000. Are all the old disaster scares coming back in reverse? Should I be worried about rocks the size of Texas flying AWAY from the Earth?

I guess they wouldn’t have run the story if the headline was “More Women Childless; Makes no Difference.”

Do most people think of ‘consequences’ as negatives?

As in ‘face the consequences of your actions’?

Not too many people I’ve ever heard speaking talked about anything positive regarding ‘consquences’.

“Positive consequences” gets over 3 million hits on Google.

“Happy consequences” gets 1,310,00 hits.

I don’t think your personal definition is valid for the rest of us humans.

You’ve based your whole argument on a inaccurate definition of a word.

Well then in this case, I think the overall consequences of a decline in human population would be a very damn good thing.

So it’s good news that people are slowing the population growth.

I don’t think I did. Of the seven major parties in Sweden, none of them disagree with this. The only ones that do are the ones that base their party programs to a bigger or lesser extent on classical nazi ideas such as the supremacy of the white race.

Admittedly my remark was a bit flippant, I was not aware that it was the intention of any of its readers to actively misunderstand it to make a sensationalist point. I will be more careful of that in the future and owe you a thank you for making me watchful of that.

To clarify my intention, in a hopefully nonoffensive manner, there is no major political objections to the opinion I voiced that immigrants are needed to maintain (or increase) the population to a point where we will not be crippled by having an overly elderly population. The only political parties expressing discontent with the immigration are the ones popularily known as neo-nazis or ‘nynasister’.

This is what you wrote:

“Everybody except the neo-nazis seem pretty happy with that solution.”

I’m sorry Stone but there’re no two ways to interpret that sentence, what you wrote is as good as declaring either you’re with us or you’re a neo-Nazi. It’s fairly silly to claim it’s willfully misunderstanding or making a sensationalist point to take you on your word, but I’m happy that you have soften up your view somewhat. However, this raises some other problems. Am I to understand that you think there is no respectable political opposition to such an important matter – and that you think that is a good thing? My view of a healthy democracy includes such things as opposition, other views and voices – your take on the Swedish democracy seems crippled when deprived of them. But perhaps it wouldn’t be as bad as all that if the very vast majority of Swedes actually were “happy with the situation”. However, as I know this is far from the case (and no subject so significant should ever be expected to garner country-wide agreement), what is happening is that those parts of Sweden that have a different view simply have no political representation. And “fuck me” (as seems to be words of choice in this thread. BTW sixcat I’ll be honored to fuck you, unfortunately I don’t know if you’re on some evil contraceptives, so I don’t know if it’ll help much one way of the other) “fuck me” if I don’t think this is a very important reason that Sweden seem to have so many of these neo-Nazis – while Denmark (similar in very many other respects – but with a much more anarchistic press tradition) can hardly muster enough to fill up an average sized Volkswagen Beagle (as well as other kinds of political violence). This ready willingness in Sweden to marginalize, deprive of media voice, excommunicate from political influence and vilify everyone who don’t march lock and step with the official state line. Finally, perhaps I have the intelligence of a garden snail, but I still don’t think you have made it absolutely clear whether you think it’s possible to not be “happy with the situation” without being a Nazi – or that Sweden is just magically vacuumed from unhappy people.

Btw. Good to see a fellow Scandinavian here in GD.

  • Rune

American born women have been under zero population growth since 1970, but that was when we started huge increases in our immigration more than canceling out what could have been a decline in our population and less traffic jams, etc.

We are one of the fastest growing countries in the world, the third most populous, and are headed towards 400 million by 2050, and a billion by the end of the century.

Dont worry about our highways being empty, worry about over population and loss of wild lands instead.

Yeah.

Sure.

Mine too. Not neccesarily on everything though, i think it’s good if there are things everyone agrees to.

I dare you to find a happy swede. Our national sport is complaining and we are world champion suiciders.

They have, just no political respresentation in the 7 parties that are actually in the Riksdag. If the opinion was so important and so widespread, I think they’d manage to get a party over the 4% limit.

We don’t have many of them.

Really? The “riots” that have happened have always been attributed to foreign extremists, among them, Danes.

Noe-nazis get a lot more attention then the average person. There’s always horror stories and if two Nazis decide to go out and wave a swastika flag they always get their protest or whatnot in the paper, can’t be said for pro-palestina or anti-war demonstrations.

As I said, there is no serious political party that has this as an issue. On a grassroot level, sure, there’s always people who just don’t like foreigners and want to whine about it. Sure, you can be against it without being a nazi, you can just simply be a racist, isolationist, or idiot of any other kind. The neo-nazis have this as their main agenda though and are the ones that you hear complaining about it. And no, Sweden is not vacuumed of unhappy people, actually all our happy people moved to Denmark for the cheep beer and better weather, only us miserable wretches are still here.

Winston, what will happen is that the birth rate will reach an equilibrium, based on the people who actually want to have kids, not the ones who have kids because they don’t have other options. Sure, that means our population won’t grow, and will eventually decrease. That’s not really a bad thing in and of itself, you know. Fewer people=more resources per capita.

Also, you seem to be operating under the assumption that feminists are the only women not having children, or that women who choose to have kids aren’t feminists. That’s just incorrect. The childfree movement (as well as the infertile segment of society) encompasses all sorts of social and political ideologies, as does the average parenting group. Most of the mothers I’ve known through my life have been feminists, thank you very much. Feminism is about women having the freedom to follow the path that will make them happy, whether that’s being a CEO, or staying home baking cookies for their fourteen children.

We should all agree that the earth is round, up is up and Denmark has the best Scandinavian football team. Everything else should be up for debate. If I find an apparent nearly uniform agreement on any other subject, I see nothing commendable, but simply a democracy in trouble. (Who would think Saddam’s 100% documents a healthy democracy?)

Them darn foreigners huh? Of course, as always, the first rule should be: look to yourself.

It was you who brought in the Nazis. And the only interesting thing about Nazis (as well as other political motivated violence – both of which you seem to have a great deal more of in Sweden than the rest of Scandinavia) is what drives them to such extremities. Some of course are just born stupid, however it is my opinion that a certain segment of them is driven there by frustration at not being heard or given opportunity to voice otherwise more respectable views, or indeed by being demonized as Nazis for opinions which are not in themselves Nazi. Which ties in nicely with your last paragraph.

I see you have broadened your categories a bit stone. Very good of you to consider that not everybody you disagree with must necessarily be Nazis, that they could also be merely racist or isolationist or just plain old idiots. Such a remarkable open mind is of course the ideal place to start a debate from.

What does that mean, isn’t that a truism?

What some places in the world is facing is not merely a decrease but a precipitous fall – a thing I find highly disturbing far beyond the trouble with financing a pensioner boom, yet you seem to brush it away as a simple matter of personal choice. And of course, on the bottom line it is just personal choice, no one is advocating forcing women to have more children, however noting is ever done in isolation. Perhaps we should contemplate whether we have created a society which is, if not directly hostile to, then at least has precious little time for children, put little value on them and many expenses (that by all fairness perhaps should be carried by society as a whole). Or that, for many, unduly influenced by expectations, demands and values fostered by society, it’s not a matter of choice, or only a very unhappy choice. Or indeed that many may find that while they now have the option to do a whole lot of other stuff, the option for family and children seem strangely closed or beyond reach (I know a few of these last ones).

By this I take it you think fewer people will make us richer. This however I find a very debatable point. Wealth in modern world is not based on natural resources, but on knowledge and manufacturing. More natural resources per capita will not makes us discernable richer, fewer people (and mental resources) will make us significant poorer.

This is not an important point for me, I introduced it only as a flimsy side note. But I was just going with the “educated women gets fewer children” thing, and I made the, wrong perhaps but not indefensible, assumption that educated women tends to be more feministic than the general populace. Anyway it is a sad, but inescapable fact that social inheritance is very hard to break free from – uneducated mothers would tend to raise uneducated children. This is not necessarily a problem since fathers seem have children on the opposite formulae; the higher the education the more children. Moreover, what better role model for a daughter than her mother, except that the mother is more likely than not to be uneducated. As for the staying home and baking cookies; I’ve noticed this choice has lately been more widely accepted by feminists – this has far from always been the case.

  • Rune

Well Winston, you don’t seem to appreciate my joking tone so I’ll just jump off the debate here, satisfied that for once the Dane and not the Swede was the boring condescending one. :stuck_out_tongue:

I haven’t ever seen a good statistic source for this particular statistic. Any cites?

Fastest growing. Nope, 144th out of 235 The US population is growing at a whopping 0.89% per year, including immigration(35th on the net migration scale) The Natiomaster page for the “people” category of US statistics is quite interesting.

Enjoy,
Steven

**

Well, it is a debatable point, but ultimately our quality of life will be linked to availability of resources. Population cannot increase indefinitely, since the earth cannot support an infinite number of people. I’m not arguing that we’ve reached that point yet, or that we’ll see it in our lifetime or even in the next few hundred years (environmentalists and economists can argue about this until they’re blue in the face), but I don’t see why population growth should be desirable.

**

But, you know, the poor/uneducated have been having more children than the rich/educated for a century at least, and since the 19th century people have warned that the educated class is being bred out of existence. And yet with each passing generation we are more educated, and we do better on IQ tests.

**

Frankly, I’m perplexed by this statistic. Where did you find it? Educated men—at least the ones I know–tend to marry educated women. I don’t know a single man with a doctorate (or even, for that matter, a bachelor’s degree) married to a woman who never graduated high school. I realize that this is anecdotal evidence, and would honestly be interested to see statistics to the contrary.

Naturally there can’t be an infinitive number of people on Earth. Supposedly there is an economical optimal sweet spot (of course that spot would be different if you focus on other aspects than wealth) - but now that we’re talking about decline rather than growth perhaps the relevant discussion would be more about how few people we can be rather than how many. Or at least whether fewer people will make us richer – which I see no reason for at all, quite the contrary. Anyway the future population of the whole Earth is neither bought nor sold in these developed countries that experience population crunch, but in the third world – so the whole point is rather beside the point. Except, perhaps - as I mentioned, in so far as a bit of economic cold in the educated world will lead to a raging pneumonic in the third world. Also, I suppose the most important check on population would be available food. Now we all know that the doomsday preachers of the 70’s led by Erlicht were very wrong – that there is in fact not only enough food – but way too much. But were it not the case, it’d only get worse by the fact that all the countries (European at least) with low fertility are also gross exporters of foodstuffs.

Yes good point. It must be a case of a rising tide that lift all boats.

I’ve made a somewhat half-hearted attempt to track down the source for the claim I’ve variously heard as rich men get more children or educated men get more children (both may have the same source as educated men tend to be richer too) – unfortunately without much luck, except for this small graph (in Danish, I’ve only looked at Danish sources – since this is where I’ve heard the argument. Have no idea how the comparable situation is in America). Table 1. “Gennemsnittligt antal børn blandt 44-årige kvinder og mænd efter uddannelse. 1990 og 1993.” (Average number of children amongst 44 year old women and men, sorted after education.)
Women with low education have a birthrate of 1.93 while fertility for women with high education falls to 1.63. For men the comparable numbers actually rise by 0.02. Sure the conclusion is a bit weak, but the categories are also fairly large, I think if you segmented the categories a bit finer, the difference would show up clearer. Also the numbers are skewered by the immigrant population; which tends to have a low education but high fertility (but since this is difference is generally gone by second generation – it’s not something to bet the farm on).

  • Rune

Lies, damned lies and statistics. I forgot the graph. (From the official bureau of statistics in Denmark)

Also I meant to say: “developed world” not “educated world” :frowning: