Red button or blue button dilemma

[CaveMike]

@Lucas_Jackson

Yes, my primary motivation is that I think blue is likely to have the best outcome. Assuming there was no discussing with others or first-hand knowledge of the outcome beforehand.

@Stratocaster

Re: that last comment. I’m a blue voter, but if I were told red is a certainty, not even close, no way I’m the decider, I’d pick red. But that kind of blows up the hypothetical, doesn’t it?

Thanks @Lucas_Jackson and @Stratocaster. I think either motivation is valid for blue.

The hypothetical turned out to be deeper than I had originally thought. Our choice is really a proxy for what we think of the rest of the population. @Jackknifed_Juggernaut’s alternative take (what if it was just your family, etc.) is interesting to me because my answer would clearly be blue.

[thorny_locust]

@Lucas_Jackson

Here’s a link to where I first saw it. He’s on Instagram as well.

Thanks; but I’m not on either of them. Can you tell me if he gives any links to the studies?

[Lumpy]

I’m sure some will find room to quibble (isn’t there always?), but I think this analogy is a good one.

[Lucas_Jackson]

@thorny_locust

Thanks; but I’m not on either of them. Can you tell me if he gives any links to the studies?

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you have to ‘be on’ Instagram to view it. Just click the link I posted.

[thorny_locust]

I don’t see any link to Instagram. The only link I see is to facebook. Rather to my surprise I was able to see that. He shows a graph of what’s supposed to be a poll result, but it gives no information whatsoever about the poll; not who was polled, not how many people were polled, not who took the poll, zilch. it isn’t anything remotely resembling a cite of even one poll, let alone a cite of multiple polls.

[griffin1977]

@thorny_locust

but it gives no information whatsoever about the poll

Its just the Twitter poll in that post I think, so nothing remotely scientific (no different to the polls here on SDMB)…
https://imgur.com/gallery/sxRnzNX

I’d be interested to know if he actually came up with it, and what point he wanted to make if so.

[TokyoBayer]

@Stratocaster

Re: that last comment. I’m a blue voter, but if I were told red is a certainty, not even close, no way I’m the decider, I’d pick red. But that kind of blows up the hypothetical, doesn’t it?

Knowing about it makes it certain, but in the hypothetical, you have to guess how others will act.

I understand that everyone picking blue would be ideal, but the reality is that a certain percentage of people would pick red.

Where the group is large enough, such as a whole country or the world, the chance you are the decisive vote becomes very small.

[Lucas_Jackson]

@thorny_locust

it gives no information whatsoever about the poll; not who was polled, not how many people were polled, not who took the poll, zilch. it isn’t anything remotely resembling a cite of even one poll, let alone a cite of multiple polls.

Sorry, but I didn’t claim it did. I was giving you all of the information about it I had. I suggest googling if you are interested finding out if there have been any scientific studies. This thread is about how you would vote.

[thorny_locust]

OK. But there have been people in this thread posting as if we had multiple well done polls and those provided clear evidence on which they were, and they thought others should, basing their decisions. I’m just pointing out that we have nothing of the sort.

[colinfred]

I’m still interested in whether anybody thinks John from post #261 has a responsibility to press the white button. Also whether they’d take the cyanide from #319