But even if its chosen randomly there are still going to be a lot of your loved ones in your group. So you are saying the other presser will be willing to put half the people they have ever known or loved at risk by pressing blue. That seems like a very bad bet to make with the lives of half the human race
Similarly with the one billion group case. You are betting the lives of one billion people that at least 4 out of 7 will choose to risk their lives and the lives a full 1/7th of the people they know and love (and 900+ hundred million people they don’t). That’s a bad bet. Personally I would put the chances of all 7 pressers picking red higher than 4 or more pressing blue.
And saying that they are willing to try save potentially half the people they have ever known or loved by pressing blue.
(More so in the individual case - I know my closest loved ones. My wife and children I feel pretty sure would push blue. Gawd. Imagine me pushing red, the vote having been a squeaker with red winning? My family gone.)
To my great dismay, my wife is a two boxer, but at least she’s a red button pusher so I know we can continue to argue over how many boxes to take after the rest of you push the suicide button
But they can’t! There is nothing the presser can do to guarantee the safety of people outside their group, that’s up to the other pressers. They can only guarantee the safety of the people in their group. It’s crazy to me to think they would not save the people they can absolutely definitely save.
OK a question for blue buttoners, assume that the button overlords go with 1 million per group, and you are the one in charge. However in this case they provide a forum for everybody within a group except the leader to discuss it for an hour, (they help with any translation issues). No contact outside the group and no viewing by the leader. Afterwards they take a poll and that’s all the leader sees. Your group comes in 95% red, you still have no knowledge about any other group. You’re still in charge: red or blue?
I should respect the clear wish of the overwhelming majority.
But also and more importantly because it provides strong evidence that my presumption that at least half were likely to push blue is incorrect. I am no longer acting on belief alone. I have a meaningful sample. People DO pick red overwhelmingly.
Of course the converse: I’d expect as well for red buttoners with the opposite tally.
The tricky part would be if the result was close but red won. In that case my belief in their votes mattering would be outweighed by the evidence I now possess that they did not have when they voted: that it is a close vote.
