# Red or Blue? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 29, 2026, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653 "2026-04-29T19:57:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2026, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/81 "2026-04-30T20:47:40Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > This is completely rational, but it’s worth pointing out that you’re basically forced by this logic to pick red because you’re defending against other people who also think like you. You are not external to the problem, as you frame it – “other people will pick red, therefore I have to, too” – you’re part of the “other people” you’re talking about. The decision is simultaneous. You’re as much a red picker that you (sort of) lament as any of the others. In a way, most of the red pickers are probably people who are saying “I’m going to pick red because people like me will pick red and I have to defend against that” Ok, and what is your point? Is is very often true when implementing optimized solutions that you can’t reach the true best solution but only a sort of “local maximum”. That’s the situation here. With lots of advanced coordination, maybe you could make sure over half of people pick blue. But in the scenario as presented, where people are presented with this dilemma immediately before having to make their choice? There’s no way to optimize past the local maximum. > [@SenorBeef](#): > > But they often frame themselves as the sort of reluctant hero. Those other people will pick red, so I have to. But no, you’re all one big ball of “those other people” - you’re equally responsible as any other red picker. Can you quote even one person who refers to picking the red button as “heroic”? The most positive reviews of the red button I’ve seen are “it’s not suicide”, not “it’s the heroic thing to do”. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2026, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/82 "2026-04-30T20:50:44Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To the red button folk. Imagine you knew ahead of time that this sort of question runs 50 50 ish in general. Sometimes more one way sometimes another. Would it impact your decision? Depends. Does it run 50/50 in polls? Or in previous life or death trials? I wouldn’t risk it based on polls alone because I think the results would skew heavily towards blue in hypotheticals and towards red in practical life or death scenarios. ---
**Author:** ![Rhodes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rhodes/32/273_2.png) [@Rhodes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhodes)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2026, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/83 "2026-04-30T22:03:06Z")
Easy. I’d pick blue, and I win either way. - If blue wins, then humanity survives and I did my part. - If red wins, I didn’t really want to live in the post-apocalyptic hellscape populated entirely by people who picked red. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/84 "2026-05-01T00:30:59Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > individualist and frankly self focused nature of American society would lean to over 50% red I don’t understand this. If everybody picks red, everybody wins. Picking red doesn’t make you a psychopath, it just makes you choose the logical answer that doesn’t put everyone at the mercy of others. Everybody choosing red means nobody is able to send anyone else to death. It is the choice of power to the people. It is the choice of F the gamesmaster. It is by no means a choice to give pain to anybody. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/85 "2026-05-01T00:41:58Z")
> [@Mama\_Zappa](#): > > The altruistic thing to do would be to press the blue button. See, but it’s not. Because there is no down side to pushing red. If everybody pushes red, then everybody lives. The people who are arguing against this have imposed a bunch of rules that are not int he hypothetical. We don’t know what happens when a baby or a colorblind person walks up to the door. We only know that the best way to ASSURE that everybody lives, is for everybody to push red. Pushing blue leaves it up to chance and in a world where Donald Trump gets a second chance at the presidency, I’m not bullish on our fortunes. The surest way to save everybody (or the most people) is to push red. I think the people pushing for blue are much too willing to take a chance on huge numbers of people dying. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/86 "2026-05-01T01:37:39Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > If everybody picks red, everybody wins. Picking red doesn’t make you a psychopath, I don’t think anyone used the word psychopath. But that “if” does more lifting than the Titan Atlas. There is no possibility that everyone picks red. Maybe 60% do, as referenced as “sometimes as many as” in the previous thread. Maybe 24% do as this sample of responders here say they would (and we are not lying). But not “everyone” … not gonna happen. OTOH 50% plus one is possible. I think realistically a coin flip. Could come down to a single vote. There is _one and only one_ way that everyone lives, and that is if 50% plus one or more choose blue. There is _one and only one_ way to guarantee you as an individual lives and that is to choose red. Neither choice is irrational or psychopathic. But believing that picking red is compatible with “everyone lives” is ignoring the evidence in front of you in this thread: 76% of those us in this thread would die if the majority picks red. “On you for making the wrong choice.” a red pusher can say - fine. But we are still going to choose the option that possibly leads to everyone lives. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/87 "2026-05-01T02:01:45Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > “On you for making the wrong choice.” a red pusher can say - fine. That came from your mind, not mine. Part of the problem with this argument is the thoughts people are trying to put into each other’s heads. I really don’t think this is a test of morality at all. I think it’s a test of one’s experience with humanity. And my experience tells me there’s no way you get to 50% blue. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/88 "2026-05-01T02:16:46Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > That came from your mind, not mine. No. From other posters in this thread. And completely agree that it is a test of what you think others would do. I’ve already stated that my blue choice is based mostly on my thinking it would be a squeaker. On line polls are not of course reality but 76% of this crowd says they would pick blue. I don’t think we are all that special. Skew liberal educated and older, maybe. My impression is that other places have results that sometime hit over 50% blue and sometimes not. Does that data give you any pause that maybe blue can hit the majority threshold? I also suspect that the more populous nations would lean to blue based on a cultural ethos that prioritizes the group over the individual. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/89 "2026-05-01T07:08:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 76% of this crowd says they would pick blue. I don’t think we are all that special. Well, for one thing, everybody here can read. That puts us above 54% of the USA. ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/90 "2026-05-01T08:02:07Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 76% of this crowd says they would pick blue Sitting in a comfortable room with no real jeopardy… ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 9:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/91 "2026-05-01T09:04:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I also suspect that the more populous nations would lean to blue based on a cultural ethos that prioritizes the group over the individual. And I think that people to whom survival is not an abstract concept but something they worry about every day, because of poverty, disease, oppression or war, will do what it takes to survive. Idealism is a first-world luxury. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/92 "2026-05-01T13:25:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > On line polls are not of course reality but 76% of this crowd says they would pick blue. I think it’s a little silly to believe that this would translate to 76% of people actually picking blue in an actual life or death scenario. I’m sure if you polled people about how many of them would run into a burning building to save someone or run outside to provide aid if they heard screaming outside their apartment, you would get _much_ higher rates saying yes than actually do those things in those situations. I think that would also be true of the button scenario. > [@DSeid](#): > > I also suspect that the more populous nations would lean to blue based on a cultural ethos that prioritizes the group over the individual. “The group” is not “all seven billion people on the planet” for most of the ethos you’re talking about. My guess is that the attitudes you’re referring to would manifest as certainty that one’s group members will make the right choice and pick red, not suicidally picking blue. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/93 "2026-05-01T14:52:55Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I’m sure if you polled people about how many of them would run into a burning building to save someone And I am less sure that the numbers aren’t actually pretty high for something like that, when people know that it is on them and only them. I actually think lots of people just do, without much analysis, knee jerk, and afterwards are shocked they did. It is an in the immediate moment action; like this decision would have to be. But definitely granted that our local poll may not reflect reality. Still the only evidence we have is consistent with the position that it could go either way, that given suddenly being placed in an existential situation there will be some people who choose to risk themselves and believe that others would choose the same. Closest real world circumstance I can think of is that episode during the Cold War when Soviet early warning systems misread reflections off clouds or something as incoming missles. An existential decision to believe that it was real and send up the chain launching the counterstrike, or not. Really based on what you already believe about your fellow humans and what they would actually do. I am pretty sure that Soviet operator would also be a blue button pusher, and that red button pushers might be more likely to not question the system’s incoming missles warning. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/94 "2026-05-01T15:18:21Z")
Following up. What would you predict would happen in a public knife attack, say in subway? I suspect most red button pushers would expect that pretty uniformly people would act in a self interested way. And that blue button pushers would expect a significant number of people to put themselves at risk in the interest of others’ safety and well being. [https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso.12703](https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso.12703) CCD footage analysis of knife attack in the London Underground. > We highlight eight complementary categories of actions in the public response that appeared functional for the collective safety of the crowd during the short period before the police arrived. The policy implications for emergency planning, and the methodological innovations involving the use of video data are discussed. Many people were willing to help in a variety of ways putting themselves at risk to allow others to escape to safety. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/95 "2026-05-01T15:24:16Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Following up. What would you predict would happen in a public knife attack, say in subway? I suspect most red button pushers would expect that pretty uniformly people would act in a self interested way. And that blue button pushers would expect a significant number of people to put themselves at risk in the interest of others’ safety and well being. Wasn’t there a very viral incident where exactly that happened and nobody did anything while a man slit a woman’s throat? And then multiple minutes passed before anyone tried to assist her? Obviously that particular incident was amplified in the media for other, distasteful, political and race related reasons. But the underlying incident itself did happen, and it’s not exactly favorable to the Blue Button worldview. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/96 "2026-05-01T15:47:52Z")
The actual incident didn’t happen exactly as the media portrayed it. And of course it got lots more play than perhaps the many times someone intervened. But there definitely is a real phenomenon of diffusion of responsibility by being part of a crowd. And the crowd bit is very interesting to the current discussion. We humans are social conformists. In this mind game we are left with conforming to what our individual preconceptions are of what others would do, and you and I diverge significantly there. Your choice, and @TruCelt’s are completely rational given that existing belief, and us blue button pushers rational given ours. Imagine the game though that you were told as you entered the booth that your sibling or best friend has already cast their vote and they went blue, but then had a heart attack and died. Yeah really went blue. We thought you should know. Condolences on your loss. My WAG is that would sway folk mightily. Although to be fair my brother pushing red would be what I’d have been expecting so it would not impact my choice much. ---
**Author:** ![DaveRaver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daveraver/32/1078_2.png) [@DaveRaver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaveRaver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/97 "2026-05-01T16:02:52Z")
In My Humble Opinion, this correlates with the U.S. political parties. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/98 "2026-05-01T16:05:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Imagine the game though that you were told as you entered the booth that your sibling or best friend has already cast their vote and they went blue, but then had a heart attack and died. Yeah really went blue. We thought you should know. Condolences on your loss. Why would that sway my choice? If they voted blue and we’re still alive I might be able to save them (in the exceedingly unlikely scenario that the vote comes down to one vote, that is). Depending on the situation, yes, I might take the irrational action of pushing the blue button knowing that this will almost certainly not save them but just mean that I die alongside them. Just as I could imagine a situation where I jump off a ship to save a loved one even if I know it will mean we both drown, or something along those lines. But if they are already dead, why wouldn’t I continue with my plan of pushing red? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/99 "2026-05-01T16:16:01Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > But if they are already dead, why wouldn’t I continue with my plan of pushing red? My hypothesis is that we make our choice mostly based on what we think others will do and that many would be influenced by seeing the example. Especially if the example challenged preexisting expectations. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2026, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653/100 "2026-05-01T16:24:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > My hypothesis is that we make our choice mostly based on what we think others will do and that many would be influenced by seeing the example. Especially if the example challenged preexisting expectations Ok, but I know that some people would pick blue. The fact that you can find one person who did doesn’t surprise me or provide me with new information with which to assess the scenario. The fact that you found one such person who I personally know and told me about it doesn’t change my assessment of what the vast majority of humans on Earth will do when put in this situation. So rationally there’s nothing to impact my decision here. Emotionally, I might be motivated by a (vain, IMO) attempt to save the person, and if it’s my daughter or my wife or something, I might decide that this emotional motivator is indeed stronger than the rational one. But I’m not going to say that it’s the correct decision; it clearly isn’t. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-or-blue/1029653.md?page=6)