# Red states secede. Is war inevitable? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 9, 2021, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548 "2021-03-09T19:27:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![velcro](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velcro/32/7102_2.png) [@velcro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velcro)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/61 "2021-03-10T03:34:37Z")
How do you define “red state action”? Was it condoned, authorized, or funded by a red state? Was it approved by any state organization at all? Or was it that the people who participated are the far extremists of what some people label “red state culture”? If you want to say “red state” is a culture then sure, it was a red state action. And 30% of Massachusetts citizens are “red state” citizens. And the term has no real geographical meaning, other than a slight leaning. Which means the “state” part of it is kind of misleading. If you want to say "red state’ is an actual state, or group, or organization, then I think it is much more of a reach. So how do you define “red state action”? ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/62 "2021-03-10T03:45:38Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Why is it not a red state terrorist attack? Because the individual came from a blue state. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/63 "2021-03-10T03:50:04Z")
My position on if this could happen is sure it could happen. We’re a rich country, and this is more like rich people fighting over an inheritance. They’ve lost perspective and are squabbling because they don’t know how good they have it. I do question how it could possibly go smoothly. It’s going to be a divorce. People are going to be much more pissed off than they are now. It’s not just going to be “you’re free to move about the country.” What happens when China takes over the shipping lanes? You think the blue state prez and the red state prez will all just unite because we used to be the good ol’ USA? More likely they’ll continue to squabble just to squabble and because so many people are still pissed. And China and Russia will profit and lap it all up. ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/64 "2021-03-10T04:12:09Z")
If Red states secede individually I have no doubt that an angry US could bleed them white by withholding federal subsidies, closing army bases and generally giving as dickishly as they got. If say the Reddest 20 took off together do they have the capacity to form a coherent economic unit, whether as a single new nation or a confederation of states? What is the relative economic base of the Red 20 vs the rest? Do they amount to something that the US has no choice but to treat with? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/65 "2021-03-10T04:20:14Z")
If secession occurred, what would be the cause the red states would be seceding over? In 1860, states seceded because they felt slavery was under attack. What is the equivalent issue in modern America? What would the red states do in the new country that they feel isn’t been done now? ---
**Author:** ![TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thegunismightierthanthepen/32/2981_2.png) [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheGunIsMightierThanThePen)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/66 "2021-03-10T04:37:24Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > What would the red states do in the new country that they feel isn’t been done now? - Being able to openly oppress minorities and LGBT people - Establishing a Christian version of Sharia law - Eliminating any pretense of actual elections, and directly installing someone like Trump as dictator Just to name a few. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/67 "2021-03-10T04:43:56Z")
Unless the Red States convince the military to go with them it will be a very short war. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/68 "2021-03-10T05:32:11Z")
> [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](#): > > - Being able to openly oppress minorities and LGBT people > - Establishing a Christian version of Sharia law > - Eliminating any pretense of actual elections, and directly installing someone like Trump as dictator > > Just to name a few. Well, secession is hard. The CSA was pretty much just the states as is, keeping slavery. Pretty simple model. They had other things to do like fight a war, which they lost. So implementing a lot of stuff that isn’t actually being done now might be kind of challenging. Maybe I missed all of the Facebook groups dedicated to implementing a Christian version of Sharia law. I mean, they could try now, take over a county, or a township, or something to try out their Christian version of Sharia law. Or Trump could mention it at one of his rallies, because he says the quiet parts out loud, you know. So all of this seems like a challenge, since, you know, none of it is actually being attempted at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/69 "2021-03-10T05:34:33Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Red and blue America are two distinct cultures, we don’t share the same values or even realities. We do however share the same zip codes. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/70 "2021-03-10T05:51:22Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > > [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > > > Okay, the troops that want to leave can do so, but they leave their weapons and ammo behind. > > So the red government is going to confiscate everyone’s firearms? I think **That\_Don\_Guy** meant they’d need to leave behind any federally-issued personal weapons/ammo (sidearms, etc.) as well as machine-guns, mortars, grenades, tanks, fighter-jets and nuclear ICBMs. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/71 "2021-03-10T12:56:25Z")
> [@velcro](#): > > If you read Fall; or, Dodge in Hell by Neal Stephenson, he does a pretty good job of describing two nations intertwined. America and Ameristan. America is the cities, interstates, and college towns. Ameristan is everywhere in between. I’d prefer his model of _Snow Crash_. An intertwined mish-mash of microstates, including but not limited to the Mafia, the Yakuza, franchise restaurants, the remnants of the United States, various suburban conclaves, and rich individuals. Far less realistic, but way more fun! > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > If secession occurred, what would be the cause the red states would be seceding over? In 1860, states seceded because they felt slavery was under attack. What is the equivalent issue in modern America? The issue would be (at least perceived) disenfranchisement. We already have some red states endorsing the “stolen election” line, imagine what the beliefs will be in a few years. Lose enough presidential elections in a row, lose control of Congress, and it’s entirely likely that some red states might decide that they’ll never have influence over the US government ever again, and that secession is their best shot at having control over their lives. And they might not even be wrong, if you looks at the demographic trends of voting. One reason the GOP has been so hell-bent on suppressing certain votes is they know the numbers are against them in a truly free vote. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/72 "2021-03-10T13:23:06Z")
I’m going to start calling this the “electoral college fallacy”, the idea that “red state/blue state” is an important reflection of popular will in the state. It only reflects which party managed to get as few as a few dozen more presidential votes in that state. What I’m saying is that every state is purple because most cities are very blue, and cities are the economic engine of the states. Scenario: Georgia’s legislature declares that it secedes from the Union. City of Atlanta says “screw that.” The President says “screw that”. He shuts down internet to the state except the cities. He directs the 75th Ranger Regiment to secure Kings Bay nuke sub base, Robins AFB, and any other high-value military assets. He directs the 3rd Infantry Division to set up checkpoints on the interstates to the largest city (Atlanta, Augusta, Macon, Savannah). If Georgia National Guard’s 48th infantry brigade refuses to nationalize, then destroy it from the air. Outcome: The cities are under federal control. “Red state” territory is locked out of the cities, cannot receive any military or consumer supplies via air, road, or train. Without factory inputs, all large-scale industry and agriculture halts (all large farms are factories now, and it’s not like Georgia outputs enough to feed its own population anyhow). It would in effect become the stupidest siege in history, with the attackers cutting off their own logistical lines, and giving it to the defenders. They sit there with no food or bullets, waiting for the well-supplied cities to cave (spoiler: it doesn’t happen). There are no red states. Land does not fight; people do. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Bredin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@John\_Bredin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Bredin)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/73 "2021-03-10T13:38:28Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Outcome: The cities are under federal control. “Red state” territory is locked out of the cities, cannot receive any military or consumer supplies via air, road, or train. Without factory inputs, all large-scale industry and agriculture halts (all large farms are factories now, and it’s not like Georgia outputs enough to feed its own population anyhow). 🤨 For resupply the cities would need to be connected by road and rail passing **through** red territory and air passing over it. You’d have to have armed escorts for convoys of trucks like ships during the World Wars, or have a helicopter gunship shadow every train, to prevent the red rebels from supplying themselves from blue supply shipments. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/74 "2021-03-10T13:45:03Z")
> [@John\_Bredin](#): > > For resupply the cities would need to be connected by road and rail passing **through** red territory and air passing over it. We supplied Berlin via airlift through territory controlled by the USSR. I’m pretty sure we could supply Atlanta through territory controlled by the Georgia militia. I guess if the militia somehow controls the airports, but that seems unlikely to hold. Even in the “real” Civil War the ability of the South to feed itself (and especially it’s Army) was a big issue. The gap between citizen-soldier and professional military is even larger now. But this is sort of outside the spirit of a “no war” scenario where somehow the state government of Georgia attempts to negotiate a withdraw from the US (along with a handful of other states). ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/75 "2021-03-10T13:48:52Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > There are no red states. Land does not fight; people do. This is certainly correct. But there are state governments which are reliably red despite having a majority blue populace. Due to the unfortunate design of our election system which effectively permits land to vote if not to fight. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/76 "2021-03-10T13:52:18Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > > [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](#): > > > > - Being able to openly oppress minorities and LGBT people > > > > > - Establishing a Christian version of Sharia law > > > - Eliminating any pretense of actual elections, and directly installing someone like Trump as dictator > > > > > > Just to name a few. > > Well, secession is hard. The CSA was pretty much just the states as is, keeping slavery. Pretty simple model. They had other things to do like fight a war, which they lost. > > So implementing a lot of stuff that isn’t actually being done now might be kind of challenging. Maybe I missed all of the Facebook groups dedicated to implementing a Christian version of Sharia law. I mean, they could try now, take over a county, or a township, or something to try out their Christian version of Sharia law. Or Trump could mention it at one of his rallies, because he says the quiet parts out loud, you know. > > So all of this seems like a challenge, since, you know, none of it is actually being attempted at the moment. The Texas secessionists’ proposed constitution requires a belief in Jesus Christ as the Son of God on the part of an office holder and expressly prohibits Muslims from holding office on those grounds. It must be noted that the existing proposal is not necessarily the one that would be ultimately adopted. I agree with the points that Red State Nation would narrow voting rights in such a way that urban areas within its boundaries would never have a voice in national government. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/77 "2021-03-10T14:00:19Z")
> [@Banksiaman](#): > > If say the Reddest 20 took off together do they have the capacity to form a coherent economic unit, whether as a single new nation or a confederation of states? What is the relative economic base of the Red 20 vs the rest? Do they amount to something that the US has no choice but to treat with? The 20 “reddest” states in the 2020 election totaled about 16% of US GDP. You need to get to the closest four states that Trump won (TX, FL, NC, OH) to get up over 30% of US GDP. These potential breakaway groups would be relatively small and extremely rural. The most economically vibrant ones are Indiana, TN, and KY. Indiana and Ohio seem unlikely to join a “breakaway bloc” just due to geography. Even my home state of MO, while certainly in the top-20 “red states” has two giant metropolises that would almost certainly not join the movement (St. Louis would likely require negotiations to allow them to join Illinois, for example). ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/78 "2021-03-10T14:09:50Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > The issue would be (at least perceived) disenfranchisement. We already have some red states endorsing the “stolen election” line, imagine what the beliefs will be in a few years. Lose enough presidential elections in a row, lose control of Congress, and it’s entirely likely that some red states might decide that they’ll never have influence over the US government ever again, and that secession is their best shot at having control over their lives. > > And they might not even be wrong, if you looks at the demographic trends of voting. One reason the GOP has been so hell-bent on suppressing certain votes is they know the numbers are against them in a truly free vote. This is a very real scenario imho. It may look like an uphill fight because of the anti-democratic measures installed or proposed in red states but the GOP is in real danger of losing power in the federal government for the next decade. I believe that the prospect of the state turning blue is a big part of the motivation behind the Texas secessionist movement, that Texas conservatives are desperate to seize and hold minority power before the numbers turn against them permanently (and their proposed constitution makes sure that this happens if they could become independent). The problem Red State Nation faces is that people everywhere are drifting leftward because that’s what modernity demands. It will happen quickly in their urban areas but inexorably in their rural ones as well. Sticking to (current) conservative ideals will simply mean an entrenched and backward government ruling a limited electorate which finds itself continually and increasingly falling behind its more advanced neighbors. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/79 "2021-03-10T14:14:22Z")
It’s not like there are not nukes that are based and controlled by Blue states as well. A nuclear civil war wouldn’t go well for _anyone_. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/80 "2021-03-10T14:20:20Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > If Texas’ social safety net programs after secession reflected the state’s dominant political philosophy Are you talking about this? “Bottom line quit crying and looking for a handout! Get off your ass and take care of your own family!,” I think that: > [@erysichthon](#): > > I can see a lot of older, Trumpy types eagerly supporting secession and then realizing that they just blew up their own Medicare coverage. Is right on. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548.md?page=5)