# Red states secede. Is war inevitable? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 9, 2021, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548 "2021-03-09T19:27:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/101 "2021-03-10T17:53:17Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > If it meant opposing secession (which I think is more germane to the OP) then quite a lot of folks were drug along by a pretty small majority that wanted to leave the Union. “Opposing secession” is what’s germane to the question of whether there would be enough support for secession to begin with. But if the question is about the practical difficulties of having a nation where large minorities are strongly opposed to the ideology which was the very impetus for the formation of the nation, then the issues today are much more difficult than what the CSA/USA dealt with back then. At that time, once the secession was accomplished, the populations of the respective nations were largely on the same page (as to overall ideology, if not necessarily about every issue including the war itself). Today, if you were to split the nation by Red/Blue state, there would still be large minorities within each nation which strongly identified with the prevailing ideology of the other nation. Big problem. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/102 "2021-03-10T18:19:09Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > You can be 100% confident that the US would assert an exclusive claim to every bit of military property in the red states. They likely would refuse to cede the land they’re stationed on. This is not necessarily a death-knell to the idea of the secession; the US will just start with military bases already in place in the new country. In theory this could all be done amicably. > > Regarding the debt, it seems likely to me that the US would make the red states pay for their freedom by shouldering some amount of the debt. The decent US might be tired of the red US, but they won’t be tired enough to let them skip out on the check. The red states would have little choice but to accept if they want to keep the split amicable. I expect that they’d offer some kind of quid-pro-quo on taking the debt vs. getting the federal assets. The US could run bases in a semi-hostile foreign country, no doubt, but I’m not sure they’d want to. I could see them making a deal that they get the land the bases are on and at least some of the second-tier equipment to use on them, in exchange for taking their fair share of the debt. This probably wouldn’t include any nukes, of course. Splitting up the Air Force and Navy might be a challenge, but I’m sure they could get a few destroyers or the like for coastal patrols. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/103 "2021-03-10T18:24:33Z")
I don’t see how the departing states have anything to offer as part of a quid pro quo. About the only ‘asset’ they have any real claim on are the blue cities within their borders, and if the red states try to hold the blue cities hostage or threaten them during the negotiation process the US will grind them into dust. If the red states want to have _any_ chance to get out of this as in intact separate country, they’re going to have to be on their best behavior. Remember, in asking to be allowed to leave unhindered, they’re asking the US for a big, _big_ favor. The US holds all the cards. (Except the aforementioned cities, which the red states can’t possibly use against them.) ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/104 "2021-03-10T18:24:52Z")
We would need to make sure that they don’t fail as a state. Whether militarily or economically, they’d be at the mercy of other countries that currently pose no real threat. I don’t know that Blue America would really save all that much. The wealth transfers that we currently give to them would simply become foreign aid. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/105 "2021-03-10T18:25:10Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Today, if you were to split the nation by Red/Blue state, there would still be large minorities within each nation which strongly identified with the prevailing ideology of the other nation. Big problem. Which is why there would have to be at least some period of free travel between the countries. I suspect they’d even set up some kind of program to subsidize such movements, or to facilitate “swaps” on a person-by-person basis. Have a site where people could register to swap their Redstate Home for a Bluestate home, and the reverse. Have some kind of formula in place to ensure that the swaps allow each party a lifestyle post-move that is reasonably comparable to what they had before. Have some kind of binding contract that creates a clear transfer of title for both parties, so you can’t come back a decade later and claim you were cheated. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/106 "2021-03-10T18:27:08Z")
I don’t know if a swap would do it. I think that there would be far more who would want to flee the forming Red country than would want to go to it. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/107 "2021-03-10T18:28:44Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > I don’t see how the departing states have anything to offer as part of a quid pro quo. About the only ‘asset’ they have any real claim on are the blue cities within their borders, and if the red states try to hold the blue cities hostage or threaten them during the negotiation process the US will grind them into dust. > > If the red states want to have _any_ chance to get out of this as in intact separate country, they’re going to have to be on their best behavior. Well, remember, this is all in the context of the rest of the US finally being sick of their shit. The quid pro quo includes the rest of the US finally being able to do things like Universal Healthcare and a living wage without these dipshits doing everything they can to block them. Tell me that wouldn’t convince quite a few people to be generous to them in leaving. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/108 "2021-03-10T18:31:17Z")
It wouldn’t convince the blue states to hand over heavy weaponry to a country that we know is led by people who want to murder us. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/109 "2021-03-10T18:37:07Z")
I don’t think the blue states would have a lot of choice. They couldn’t afford the current military as well as the increased spending on social programs while also losing 20+% of their tax base. While the Red states may be net takers a lot of that taking is for military spending. Leaving those bases in hostile territory will increase their cost. In the end I’d be shocked if at least 20-30% of equipment wasn’t transferred and all of the bases in hostile territory. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/110 "2021-03-10T18:38:41Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > We’d have sectarian violence similar to what we see in Syria. Do you have any cite or support other than your own statement? (I know, wasting my time here) This wouldn’t go like Syria. The US military is much more professional than that. There wouldn’t be any major Civil War-style defections, not on any consequential scale at least (source is my own personal military experience). Even if they did, units aren’t going to defect wholesale with high-value weapons systems, so defectors aren’t contributing anything to the war effort but cannon fodder. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/111 "2021-03-10T18:40:56Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > We would need to make sure that they don’t fail as a state. > > Whether militarily or economically, they’d be at the mercy of other countries that currently pose no real threat. I think you underestimate their chances. The poorest parts of the US are still pretty damn rich by world standards. Even if it were the 10 states with the lowest GDP forming this nation, their GDP would still be on the order of 600 billion a year, which is about a third of Canada’s GDP, and about half of Mexico’s. And that’s the lowest 10, which includes Vermont, so they’d be better off than that. Add in Georgia and they double the GDP, and match Mexico. Texas all by itself is almost the same as Canada, so adding Texas to the mix as well gets them well into not-third-world conditions. Come up with a more realistic list of which states would be involved, and things just get better. You guys have a _loooooooooot_ of money down there. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/112 "2021-03-10T18:42:30Z")
The military could be made a lot more affordable without abandoning military equipment to “hostile territory”. They’d have to slow down additional procurement, but hey, they suddenly have a lot less territory to defend with what they already have on hand. Now, I can see a concerted effort being made to decommission and relocate the military equipment to the areas of the country who we actually want to defend. But that would be a somewhat slow process, and they wouldn’t start doing it until the detachment of the red states was a done deal. Which means the US will require, at a minimum, a grace period during which they can take their nukes and go home. Or they could keep them there as a sort of quiet occupying force, which may seem justified given how problematic the red states are apparently behaving. Whatever floats their boat. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/113 "2021-03-10T18:46:18Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > You can reasonably assume that there will impediments to trade and shipments - how many ports would this presumed new country have? It depends of which states go but there would be plenty of gulf states that would probably want to. Depending on how the voting was held you may get Florida and Georgia too. So they may have an atlantic port as well as gulf ports. According to [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Panamax_ports#United_States) there is 1 deep water port in North Carolina (not sure which way they would go), 2 in Georgia, and 4 in Florida on the atlantic side. In the gulf of mexico, there would be 4 in texas including #10 in the world, 1 in Louisiana, 1 in Alabama, and 1 in Florida. So they wouldn’t be hurting for trade locations. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/114 "2021-03-10T18:46:50Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > It wouldn’t convince the blue states to hand over heavy weaponry to a country that we know is led by people who want to murder us. This whole thing is based on it being a negotiated separation. The whole point would be to avoid just that war, so it’s unlikely that the newly formed country would immediately take to the battlefield with whatever tanks they were allowed to keep. Second-tier tanks, remember. Not top-of-the-line. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/115 "2021-03-10T18:50:01Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > The military could be made a lot more affordable without abandoning military equipment to “hostile territory”. They’d have to slow down additional procurement, but hey, they suddenly have a lot less territory to defend with what they already have on hand. No, this doesn’t make sense either. Your talking about increasing the total boarder of the country by 2-3X and that boarder would be with a country so hostile you’re not willing to give them weapons. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/116 "2021-03-10T18:52:35Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Well, it’s somewhat hard to say because Lincoln was not on the ballot in the deep south, and even where he was (VA) he only got a small percentage. But the “unionist” candidates (Douglas, Bell) won majorities in most border states and even in the “Deep South” the pro-Union candidates got 43% of the vote (v. 57% for Breckenridge). > > By 1864 there was clearly a pretty large population in the North that were willing to negotiate a peace to let the South leave. But military victories changed attitudes in time for Lincoln to win handily. > > So I would say maybe 30-40% of the South were not secessionist prior to 1860 and a good 30-40% of the North were probably ready to let the South go by 1864 (possibly more). Please include the slaves in this count; they didn’t vote, but it’s safe to say they’d have been anti-Confederacy. We can assume the same of their descendants (who now can vote and bear arms, which changes things). ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/117 "2021-03-10T18:53:53Z")
> [@Oredigger77](#): > > No, this doesn’t make sense either. Your talking about increasing the total boarder of the country by 2-3X and that boarder would be with a country so hostile you’re not willing to give them weapons. Right, but they’re a hostile country _without_ weapons, because you took them all. (Aside from private guns, which would not work super-great against the US military.) Sure the neoconfederates would immediately start trying the build their own military, but that will take time - presuming the US doesn’t block them from doing so as part of the exit treaty. And I’m not really convinced that the blue states can’t afford a military. I’m actually quite certain that the military as it stands in the current US could take a pretty big budget cut and still chug along just fine. (Though that’s really a debate for another thread, which is why I don’t base my conclusions here on it.) ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/118 "2021-03-10T18:59:24Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > This whole thing is based on it being a negotiated separation. I think this is the big piece. In order for this to work we’d need 38 states to amend the constitution so the majority of the population will be on board with picking out a plan that makes sense for everyone. This isn’t going to be a handful of states taking their ball and going home. Where I think it will get the most interesting, and that hasn’t been touched on yet is federal mineral resources. A lot of the gulf of mexico is federal land but if every state on the gulf leaves the US the claim to that land would be tenuous at best. If all of that land was given to the new country they would be in the top 30 petro states without any onshore assets. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/119 "2021-03-10T19:00:41Z")
How can you have a cite for a future hypothetical? My time machine is in the shop indefinitely. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548/120 "2021-03-10T19:06:38Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > Right, but they’re a hostile country _without_ weapons, because you took them all. (Aside from private guns, which would not work super-great against the US military.) Sure the neoconfederates would immediately start trying the build their own military, but that will take time - presuming the US doesn’t block them from doing so as part of the exit treaty. Still wrong. Even if the US remnant took all of their weapons the RSA (red states of america) could easily buy weapons from Russia and China on the open market. They could have a middle eastern style army within 6 months of the end of negotiations. Keep in mind the OUSA (original USA) will lose a ton of their diplomatic influence I would assume they will be closer to the UK then the entire EU in political power. While I think its easy to say that the US could vastly cut it military spending today, once they have a hostile power in the middle of their country, their number of active soldiers has been cut in half, and they are facing an army with tanks, fighter planes and an equal number of soldiers along 3,000+ miles of new boarder there is no way spending would go down. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/red-states-secede-is-war-inevitable/937548.md?page=7)