# Referendum in Colombia--straw in the wind?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 3, 2016, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572 "2016-10-03T16:27:21Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 6\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\
**Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/1 "2016-10-03T16:27:21Z")

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As most of you probably know, voters in Colombia rejected a proposed “peace treaty” with the rebel Farc group. It was widely expected to pass. The sticking point was that the rebels would go unpunished. I think people just get nastier when they go into the voting booth. Brexit was widely expected to fail.

Is this a harbinger of what will happen in the US election?

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/2 "2016-10-03T16:38:25Z")

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How could this possibly be a harbinger of the US election? And how is this like Brexit? The polling before Brxit was for a close vote, the polling before the Columbian referendum was waay off. Turnout for Brexit vote was 72%, Columbia’s was 38% (!seriously? Only 38% turnout to vote on whether to continue a civil war?)

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**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/3 "2016-10-04T04:04:18Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> How could this possibly be a harbinger of the US election? And how is this like Brexit? The polling before Brxit was for a close vote, the polling before the Columbian referendum was waay off. Turnout for Brexit vote was 72%, Columbia’s was 38% (!seriously? Only 38% turnout to vote on whether to continue a civil war?)

A hurricane impacted turnout in many areas

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**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/4 "2016-10-04T04:23:06Z")

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> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> Brexit was widely expected to fail.

Because people were explaining away the polls that showed a leave victory to be a distinct possibility.

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**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/5 "2016-10-04T04:31:39Z")

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Existing thread in MPSIMS: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805717](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805717)

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/referendum-in-colombia-straw-in-the-wind/767572/6 "2016-10-04T04:38:29Z")

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> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> I think people just get nastier when they go into the voting booth.

There’s a saying, “No raindrop considers itself responsible for the flood.”

Same applies for voters; a tragedy of the commons. Usually, no voter considers himself/herself personally, decisively responsible for an electoral outcome, so they can vote for something shocking and not feel culpable.