# Regarding Iran War Prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** About This Message Board\ **Created:** [May 11, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977 "2026-05-11T02:13:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/1 "2026-05-11T02:13:34Z")
Continuing the discussion from [Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/123): > [@Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/123): > > Briefly speaking to the gas price sidetrack (hint hint) OP here. We have threads on Iran War _motivations_. That’s about the past. This is a thread about predicting the future. The path of oil prices is highly relevant to that. It is sometimes claimed that betting is a tax on bullshit. Nonsense: pushing people to state their opinions in the form of prediction is the real tax on bullshit. Implementing that leads you to objective variables like the price of oil. What we don’t have yet is a thread entitled: “Piercing the fog of war: discussing controversies regarding what is happening with the Iran War.” > Descriptive controversies as opposed to normative controversies. Controversies regarding what is happening now on the ground, not what we should do. * * * **Damn you to hell infinite scroll: damn you to hell!** I was a little dubious about moderator attempts to curb hijacks: it seemed to me to be a misguided attempt to curb rancor. But here’s the thing: I found it a _lot_ easier to skim threads in vBulletin than in Discourse. So hijacks have a higher cost than they used to. I tentatively concluded that the best practice involved leaning towards thinly sliced thread design, ones with more restrictive purview. But I don’t buy that honestly, except as a hypothesis. Anyway my intent with the prediction thread was to challenge the board to transform their _opinions_ and _perceptions_ into predictions that could be evaluated later. There’s a fair amount of wandering around in that thread, but I think the oil price predictions are central. Note that the problem is that the writer must necessarily make compound forecasts: the price of oil will be the result of a lot of things. But sorting through that is in the nature of advancing human understanding: great natural experiments are all too rare. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/2 "2026-05-11T02:32:59Z")
So, please note that I didn’t say it was a hijack (see the word sidetrack above) and I didn’t use mod color. I saw the _possibility_ coming, and so strove to specifically address your points while explicitly tying it back to how it applied to the Iran War (see the rest of the cited post). Perhaps I was _wrong_ in trying to incorporate my ‘nudge’ into an otherwise all poster-hat-on post. And I’m NOT denying your position that oil prices are absolutely a weapon that Iran is using to manipulate the outcomes and consequences of the war. But talking about it _without_ without talking how it affects your predictions or forecasts is drifting away from your own OP: > [@Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/1): > > Pros make forecasts, which are probabilistic. Scenario evaluation is also topical, as is the gaming out of events. Which was what I was trying to do in the rest of the post you cited. Again, I will fully accept the criticism that I mixed “business” and pleasure/posting in an unfair way. I was trying to keep it as informal as possible because I didn’t think it had in anyway risen to the level of a hijack. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/3 "2026-05-11T02:42:32Z")
Hm. Point taken, but I thought your comment deserved a reply, and that ATMB would be a more appropriate forum than Politics. I don’t think putting in nudges is a bad thing. * * * A tightened hijack policy has similar downsides to hierarchical databases. In practice, lots of posts could be slotted into a number of different threads when you slice the threads thinly. Here, we have what could be called a sidetrack, except its outcome is a precondition for lots of other things. (If oil price spikes lead to recession, that’s going to affect diplomatic positioning of Iran and the US a lot.) I don’t have any good answers here vis a vis hijack policy. I do think this is a decent example of how difficult the tradeoffs are. Luckily the consequences aren’t severe. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/4 "2026-05-11T03:00:35Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Hm. Point taken, but I thought your comment deserved a reply, and that ATMB would be a more appropriate forum than Politics. Since it was a legit concern about a moderator’s actions ATMB is the right place, though you can always feel free to DM me. I try to respond quickly! You are totally within your rights to politely criticize my actions as a moderator (or Pit me as a poster 😉 ). I think the parsing of threads, especially in P&E/GD is the great strength **and** weakness of human moderation. We don’t robotically enforce the rules, and often make judgement calls. Which is why we’ll sometimes hint, sometimes type “mod-nudge”, use notes, warnings or more severe options. It’s always a judgement call, and sometimes we’ll be be over sensitive, or read the trends wrong (points to self). This is one of the big reasons we opened up the HT thread option. We haven’t _yet_ found an option to take into account how each poster and each mod is going to draw the line in granular detail, thus the current “all or nothing” option as a place to _start_ from for at least putting a bit back under the OPs control. So again, you did nothing wrong in (very politely in fact) questioning my reasoning. I fully accept we all are acting in good faith, and if anything, I was overreacting. Point taken as constructive criticism! ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/5 "2026-05-11T11:25:11Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > This is one of the big reasons we opened up the HT thread option. What is “HT” in this context? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/6 "2026-05-11T12:03:55Z")
“Hijacks Tolerated” See here for the new rules > [@New Rules for Politics and Elections – January 2020](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-rules-for-politics-and-elections-january-2020/845727/2): > > Hijacks Tolerated option for #Politics & Elections[Comments are happening in the ATMB thread as of April 21, 2026.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/changes-to-hijacking-rules-in-the-politics-and-elections-forum/1029405) and here for the rationale / discussion > [@Changes to Hijacking Rules in the Politics and Elections Forum](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/changes-to-hijacking-rules-in-the-politics-and-elections-forum/1029405): > > The P&E moderator staff are announcing a change to our rules with respect to hijacking. First, some background: The more stringent current hijacking rules came into existence in 2020, largely authored by Jonathan Chance. Unfortunately, Jonathan died shortly after implementing these rules, and we didn’t really get to see his intended moderation for them. We’ve done the best we can with the rules as we understand them. Still, we’re fielding an increasing number of complaints in ATMB about our m… ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regarding-iran-war-prediction-thread/1029977/7 "2026-05-11T16:36:26Z")
A thank you to @LSLGuy for linking that to @Pleonast. And a reminder, it’s an option for _P&E only_ at this point. For more questions or concerns, see the linked thread above.