# Religious War in Iraq **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 29, 2005, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226 "2005-11-29T17:18:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/1 "2005-11-29T17:18:14Z")
It has long been my contention that the most dreadful prospect we face in Iraq would be the morphing of political conflict in Iraq to sectarian conflict, i.e., Sunni vs Shia. Recent events in Iraq certainly seem to underscore this ghastly prospect. Item: [http://nytimes.com/2005/11/29/international/middleeast/29security.html?hp&ex=1133326800&en=f18810368c98ae2c&ei=5094&partner=homepage](http://nytimes.com/2005/11/29/international/middleeast/29security.html?hp&ex=1133326800&en=f18810368c98ae2c&ei=5094&partner=homepage) > [@](#): > > …American military pushes the largely Shiite Iraqi security services into a larger role in combating the insurgency, evidence has begun to mount suggesting that the Iraqi forces are carrying out executions in predominantly Sunni neighborhoods… > > …Sunnis believe that the security forces are carrying out sectarian reprisals, in part to combat the insurgency, but also in revenge for years of repression at the hands of Saddam Hussein’s government. > > Ayad Allawi, a prominent Iraqi politician who is close to the Sunni community, charged in an interview published Sunday in The London Observer that the Iraqi government - and the Ministry of Interior in particular - was condoning torture and running death squads… This is a thorny dilemma. On the one hand, according to the “freedom/democracy” theme the Bushiviks are intent on claiming as thier sole motive for initiating this shitstorm, we should, by all rights, be solidly on the side of the Shia. They are, in truth, the demographic majority. According to the priciples we claim to support, a federalized Iraq not only can be organized to favor the Shia majority, it _should_ be. The principle of “majority rules” can easily be used as a justification for the rawest of oppression. Who’s side, then, are we on? Whose side _should_ we be on? Currently, we are actively suppressing a Sunni “insurgency” on behalf of the government of Iraq. A case can be made that we are fighting their fight for them, spending our blood and treasure on their behalf. We are being used, to put it bluntly. We are told that a sectarian civil war will result from a precipitous, “cut and run” approach to the insurgency. That we are obligated to stand and fight until the governance of Iraq can carry the struggle on its own. I contend that said struggle has already begun, and we are in the horrid position of having chosen a side in a conflict that can only get worse. Our enemies hate us the more for it, our allies are simply using our blood and treasure to substitute for their own, it is a _realpolitik_ that Bismarck and Kissinger would wholly admire. I was long an advocate of the “we broke it, we are obliged to fix it.” I have abandoned this position, with grave reluctance. I no longer believe it possible. An honorable exit from a dishonorable military adventure would be making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, a blood-soaked sows ear. Increasingly, our blood, and the blood of the innocent. If we insist on protecting the Sunni, the Shia majority has every legal right, according to the principles we offer mealy-mouthed adherence, to order us off thier territory. We have even stated such as our goal, that we will fight their fight for them until we are no longer needed, as they “stand up”, we “stand down”. I find myself advocating a dreadful position, having no better alternative. We should withdraw ourselves as immediatly as possible. We should then focus on applying what meager influence we have to ameliorate and shorten the current and ensuing conflict, recognizing our limitations. There is nothing palatable about this. But if the honorable course is impossible, the choice becomes which dishonorable alternative is the least ghastly. Innocents are dying, and will die. The Sunni, almost certainly, cannot prevail. Perhaps, indeed, our presence currently prevents a wider conflict, it forstalls direct intervention by other ME states into the conflict. On the other hand, perhaps that direct intervention might be the least horrid alternative, leading to a negotiated settlement sooner rather than later. A short, nasty war rather than a long, drawn out agony. There are no good alternatives. I recognize, with a heavy heart, that I am proferring a horror. There is no joy in it, there is only the solemn recognition of fact, and a fierce anger that any of our best and brightest be used as food for a monster. With grave reluctance: Out Now! ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/2 "2005-11-29T17:29:54Z")
Not that I disagree with your contention that the U.S. should withdraw from Iraq (except for the proposed time course). But: > [@](#): > > We should withdraw ourselves as immediatly as possible. We should then focus on applying what meager influence we have to ameliorate and shorten the current and ensuing conflict, recognizing our limitations. Do you really think the second part of this statement is remotely compatible with the first part? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/3 "2005-11-29T17:36:46Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > …But:Do you really think the second part of this statement is remotely compatible with the first part? Yes. Next question? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/4 "2005-11-29T17:37:47Z")
I have no idea how that entirely innappropriate smiley got there. Not my doing, I hasten to assure. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/5 "2005-11-29T17:39:36Z")
Allawi has an agenda - don’t take what he says at face value. [Roger Owen](http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/11/27/what_iraq_will_look_like_after_the_elections/) offers a best-case scenario - that Iraq could work like Lebanon. If. And it isn’t a very attractive picture, either. > [@](#): > > First, the majority of the population vote for members of their own ethnic group or sect. Second, the fact that the leaders of each sect do not need to solicit the votes of their own members leaves them free to negotiate and to make political bargains with the leaders of the other sects more or less untrammeled by the individual or corporate interests of their own followers. Third, the primary business of politics becomes that of dividing the state’s resources, including money and jobs, on a sectarian basis. > [@](#): > > For one thing, the practice of federalism and of the devolution of powers to those in control of the three main centers of sectarian dominance is not only much more advanced in the Iraqi case but also enshrined in the new constitution. Hence, for example, while the present oil fields are supposed to remain under central government management, any new ones are to belong to those who control the province in which they are found. For another, is also likely that markedly different systems of law will be allowed to develop in the Kurdish, Shi’ite, and Sunni areas, a situation which Lebanon has so far just managed to avoid. > [@](#): > > Nevertheless, if the situation does not deteriorate into all-out civil war, the occupiers will still be able to comfort themselves that they have left some sort of democracy behind, albeit one in which voters have no real choice and all the major political decisions are made by unaccountable sectarian elites. In Iraq, though, the Shiites are gaining control (or, rather, the Iranian mullahs are via the Iraqi Shiites) over a minority that had ruled by force for many decades. Memories are long. It might well be that the full-blown reprisal campaign will burn out in fairly short time, but with a lot of Sunni corpses left behind and a full theocratic subjugation regime in place. If there’s any real likelihood of avoiding that, I’d like to know, and let’s not waste time the talking points about “The Iraqi people are determined to make democracy work”. That isn’t what the preponderance of the evidence says, not with a definition of democracy we’d be happy using. Time to declare victory and get out. If letting Bush call the facade we leave behind “democracy” will let him give the order, that’s fine. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/6 "2005-11-29T17:40:01Z")
The irony is, that before he leaves office, Bush will do exactly what you are proposing, but will declare it a victory for Freedom & Democracy. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/7 "2005-11-29T17:45:42Z")
> [@Fear Itself](#): > > The irony is, that before he leaves office, Bush will do exactly what you are proposing, but will declare it a victory for Freedom & Democracy. Then so be it. If the people are dumb enough to buy it, I have no recourse. My committment to democracy is not based on any pretense that it is the best form of government, only that it is the most just. If the Bushiviks can package this monstrosity as a victory, one can only admire thier skills and fault our credulity. So be it. Democracy ain’t for sissies. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/8 "2005-11-29T17:48:32Z")
We’ve got a semi sticky wicket. “[We can’t stay, we can’t leave, and we can’t fail](http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?PubID=627).” ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/9 "2005-11-29T17:57:24Z")
> [@PatriotX](#): > > We’ve got a semi sticky wicket. > > “[We can’t stay, we can’t leave, and we can’t fail](http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?PubID=627).” Have mercy! That monograph is 67 pages of cast-iron wonk! From the synopsis: > [@](#): > > …They conclude that the United States must be prepared to withdraw from Iraq under non-optimal conditions and that the chief U.S. goals should be to devise an exit strategy for Iraq that focuses on bolstering Iraqi government legitimacy even if this does not involve creating a Western style democracy… Well, yes. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/10 "2005-11-29T18:03:32Z")
I’ve given up looking for the best option. I’m merely looking for the least horrible. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/11 "2005-11-29T18:07:10Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Have mercy! That monograph is 67 pages of cast-iron wonk! > > From the synopsis: > > Well, yes. I’m building a Cliff’s notes. But it’s likely to be longish too. I’ll share later when I’m done and have attached the links to the footnotes. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/12 "2005-11-29T18:31:06Z")
One can only hope that such will appear, toot sweet, on the woefully underestimated [http://irrationallyinformed.com/](http://irrationallyinformed.com/), without which no citizen can hope to be fully informed. As well, consider the following: **‘The Salvador Option’ The Pentagon may put Special-Forces-led assassination or kidnapping teams in Iraq** > [@](#): > > …Now, NEWSWEEK has learned, the Pentagon is intensively debating an option that dates back to a still-secret strategy in the Reagan administration’s battle against the leftist guerrilla insurgency in El Salvador in the early 1980s. Then, faced with a losing war against Salvadoran rebels, the U.S. government funded or supported “nationalist” forces that allegedly included so-called death squads directed to hunt down and kill rebel leaders and sympathizers. Eventually the insurgency was quelled, and many U.S. conservatives consider the policy to have been a success—despite the deaths of innocent civilians and the subsequent Iran-Contra arms-for-hostages scandal… The horror. The horror. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/13 "2005-11-29T18:41:21Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > As well, consider the following: > > **‘The Salvador Option’ > The Pentagon may put Special-Forces-led assassination or kidnapping teams in Iraq** > > The horror. The horror. **elucidator,** what is your source for the quoted text? I ask because we’ve already had a couple of threads on the use of the “Salvador Option” in Iraq – see [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=296099&highlight=salvador](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=296099&highlight=salvador) and [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=313392&highlight=salvador](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=313392&highlight=salvador) – and I want to make sure this isn’t old news. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/14 "2005-11-29T18:44:23Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > One can only hope that such will appear, toot sweet, on the woefully underestimated [http://irrationallyinformed.com/](http://irrationallyinformed.com/), without which no citizen can hope to be fully informed. > > As well, consider the following: > > **‘The Salvador Option’ > The Pentagon may put Special-Forces-led assassination or kidnapping teams in Iraq** > > The horror. The horror. Perhaps we can name the squads after the Arabic term for intelligence? We could call them the Mukhabarat. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/15 "2005-11-29T18:48:44Z")
[http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6802629/site/newsweek/](http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6802629/site/newsweek/) From January, _Newsweek_, so “old news” may well apply. My bad, if it is such. ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/16 "2005-11-29T18:53:01Z")
Here’s another irony – the elected government we’re supporting in Iraq is, largely, a Shi’ite and pro-Iranian government. When all is said and done, our major accomplishment in Iraq will have been to move Tehran 600 miles closer to Tel Aviv. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/17 "2005-11-29T18:57:14Z")
> [@Sal Ammoniac](#): > > Here’s another irony – the elected government we’re supporting in Iraq is, largely, a Shi’ite and pro-Iranian government. When all is said and done, our major accomplishment in Iraq will have been to move Tehran 600 miles closer to Tel Aviv. That characterization is a little much. The relationship between the Iraqi parties (formerly in exile in Iran) is and has been one of convenience. The Iraqis know this. Right now, Iran’s in a position to provide help in ways that benefit Iran and that Iraq’s willing to accept. But, barring the jarringly unexpected, Iraq will not become a subsidary of Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/18 "2005-11-29T19:19:32Z")
Sending in death squads would be about as effective as sending in Up With People, since the big, basic dynamics seem to be beyond tinkering: the Shiites will gravitate to Iran; the Kurds will chip away at Turkey; and the Sunni will cling to what’s left of Baathism by gravitaing toward Syria. All these movements will in turn set others in motion, some equally predictable, others which support the “one damned thing after another” theory of history. I just hope that it takes less than the Hussite War-through-Thirty Years War duration of 228 years that Europe required for its religious wars, while I also hope that any brevity will not be due to global nuclear war. ---
**Author:** ![jebert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ec9cab/32.png) [@jebert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jebert)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/19 "2005-11-29T19:23:18Z")
Why not cut to the chase and carve out separate Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni states? Though not inevitable, that is the most likely outcome anyway. It would involve displacement of a number of minoriities living in areas populated by majorities, but I believe this would result in fewer deaths than continued insurgency with the prospect of civil war hanging in the air. Any unified state will always have the threat if not the reality of majority oppression of the minorities. It appears there are no good solutions. Anybody have one that is less bad than this? ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2005, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226/20 "2005-11-29T19:35:48Z")
> [@](#): > > But do you really think the second part of this statement is remotely compatible with the first part? > [@elucidator](#): > > ;j Yes. Next question? Then you need to think about this again and rephrase your position. Immediate withdrawal sacrifices **any** possibility of U.S. influence on what happens in Iraq (they’re not paying a whole lot of attention _now_). Your proposal goes more like: Immediate withdrawal, anticipating full-scale civil war, and hoping the casualties and eventual state of Iraq are not worse than what would occur with a less precipitate policy. My own proposal would be to announce a complete withdrawal by a defined date (i.e. the end of 2006) with maintenance of a rapid deployment force in the region with the intent of keeping hands off except in the event of disaster (genocide, al-Queda power grab etc.). Might focus a few minds on getting ready for the inevitable and lessen chances of total chaos. Or not. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/religious-war-in-iraq/333226.md?page=2)