Reports of the demise of the GOP are greatly exaggerated

You mean if they suddenly time traveled to 2021? I seriously doubt that. I’m not saying they would go Republican, but I don’t think they would be “comfortable” in the Democratic party.

Trump might be indicted and tried, but how can you possibly get a conviction requiring unanimous agreement? Surely every jury will include at least one Trump loony.

They don’t care. Most die-hard Republicans are either in denial that Trump actually caused the insurrection (it was “Antifa” spurring it on, or BLM in ‘whiteface’, or some other rationalizing bullshit), or they are actually enjoying the strife and disruption as filtered through their preferred “news” sources of Newsmax and OANN, Fox News now being “too liberal” for them after finally dumping the fawning Lou Dobbs.

Stranger

It’s not broken because the forces/energy that fueled its rightward lurch haven’t been exhausted. America faces a reckoning: can we evolve from being a white majoritarian nation into a modern liberal, multi-ethnic and pluralistic democracy, or not? Can enough white Americans deal with the idea that America doesn’t have to be a white man’s country, or not? Note that I don’t expect these questions or issues to be completely resolved among all white Americans, but if it can be resolved by, say, half of white America that we can be a better democracy than this, then we can change for the better.

But that reckoning has just started; I think a majority of Americans are at least concerned by what they’ve seen the last few months, which is somewhat encouraging, but it’s not clear that we really know what we want, what kind of nation we want to be. As long as these questions are unanswered, there’s a reason for the GOP cult to exist. Only when we’ve decided that we accept that America isn’t just for white people will the GOP migrate to something else.

You’re not a horrible person. Just a terrible futurologist.

His support runs to roughly 50% of our country, and well over 80% in vast monocultural swathes of it. As long as RW media continues to exist (online if not broadcast) that number is going only upwards. That’s a damn big fringe you’re somehow expecting to ostracize.

Some care. A non-zero number voted for Biden for president and GOP candidates down-ticket. I’d wager that number would have doubled had voters had any idea Jan. 6 would happen. If there’s another Oklahoma City or worse, Republican voters who don’t slurp the OANN toxic waste may have to finally reckon with the choice between their party and their consciences.

We’re not the ones who’ll ostracize them. It will have to be the sane Republicans, if that isn’t allowed to become a complete oxymoron.

I truly believe there are republicans who are not happy with the direction the party has taken.

I also believe the republican party is absolutely unforgiving towards any members who dare challenge them.

So, it is a party of craven people more interested in keeping their jobs than taking a principled stand.

Is that soulless? Maybe…or maybe just cowards.

I’m not @BigT, but I think he was referring to McConnell:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/politics/mcconnell-marjorie-taylor-greene-cancer-republican-party/index.html

I don’t agree. Both parties recognize that there is a division between moderates and purists within their party. The difference is how they deal with them.

For the Democrats the question is how to reach a balance which can unite both sides of the party. With the Republicans the question is how to properly punish the non-purists as seen by the censure of Lyn Chaney and Cindy McCaine.

I think this difference stems primarily from a difference in the relative proportions of the moderates to extremists between the two parties. In the Democrats I would estimate that the proportion is about 60/40 in favor of the moderates, while in the Republican party its around 80/20 in favor of the purists. Part of the reason for this strong skewing within the Republicans is that once you reach a tipping point where the purists out number the moderates, the purists start kicking out the moderates skewing the party even further.

There’s also a significant difference in how extreme the “purists” are. “Purists” as a large subset on the Democratic side tend to be people who largely agree with mainstream Democratic priorities but are in favor of some more ambitious “democratic socialist”-type efforts like UBI or a “Green New Deal”.

“Purists” as a large subset on the Republican side, however, tend to be people who believe absolutely groundless conspiracy theories like “stolen elections” or “COVID scamdemic” or “Biden is a Chinese puppet” and others too numerous to mention, and appeal to them as justification for flagrantly illegal and even terroristic actions. It’s apples and oranges—hell, apples and tiddlywinks—even to try to treat on the same footing the versions of “extremism” active in the Democratic and Republican parties these days.

I don’t see this happening. The Republicans have made white supremacy a centerpiece of conservative beliefs. The moderate view in the Republican party is that non-white people should be offered second-class citizenship in the party (and in the country as a whole). That’s never going to be able to compete with the Democrats’ offering equal partnership.

The same is true for ideology. The Republicans have no moderate wing. The most they are willing to do is allow moderates to vote for conservatives. Why should moderates be interested in that offer when they have a party that’s willing to support their platform?

I don’t see how the Republicans can save themselves. Even if they tried to reach out beyond their core demographic, they’ll find the Democrats have already gotten there ahead of them. If the Republicans are only offering people something they’re already getting from the Democrats, why are those people going to switch?

The only long term hope I see for the Republicans is if the Democrats implode. And that’s something I think could happen. There’s a divide in the Democratic base between moderates and liberals. So far they have been willing to work together. But if they split, it could create an opportunity for the Republicans. If the liberals get a dominant position in the Democratic party and the Republican party makes a real effort to shift back towards the center, they may be able to convince some moderates to swing over to the Republicans.

I know a Jamaican immigrant who is on the same general political spectrum as Michael Savage and that is exactly his take. “They shouldn’t have let me in, but they blew it. But they should keep everyone else out.” Everyone that isn’t a friend or family member of his of course. He has a degree and considers himself an intellectual. But he worked his way out of poverty through unceasing hard work and has naked contempt for anyone who didn’t do the same - your value as a human being is directly tied to your economic worth.

Folks like him won’t associate with white supremacist rednecks, but will back the politicians who quietly enable them. It’s a weird, but very human disconnect (humans being weird and not consistently rational generally).

Its worse than that, the vast vast majority of republican voters will not abandon the party no matter how incompetent, criminal and corrupt it becomes.

I guess the one beacon of hope is aging demographics. I don’t know if this trend will hold but younger people lean further left. And its not just people under age 30. At this point, Biden won handily with everyone under the age of 50 in the election.

Hopefully that trend continues, but who knows if in the 2032 presidential election the democrats will win with every age demographic under the age of 60. I’ve heard demographics will help the democrats for years and the GOP ended up picking up 11 million votes in 2020. Plus with demographics, it may just be more voters in places they aren’t needed really. More voters in blue states, urban areas and blue districts won’t help the democrats win national elections.

And nevertheless there are, in fact, non-white Republicans. They are real people who are out there. Whatever it is that they are seeing in the modern conservative movement that makes them want to embrace it - whatever that thing is - if Republican political operatives can make it part of their strategy to sell these nonwhite voters on their party, then they’re going to peel off votes from Democratic voting blocs. This is just a fact.

I think the existence of people like this person you know explains, at least in part, why Biden did worse than Clinton in places like Miami and the Rio Grande Valley. Republicans are somewhat successfully appealing to this type of sentiment. It’s only the white supremacists that keep this from happening to an even larger extent.

Many minorities and immigrants fall firmly into the socially conservative spectrum because of social and religious upbringings, and those that have come from supposedly-liberal or socialist failed states like Venezuela or the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact nations may find the even modest liberally leanings of the Democratic party as a politically dubious philosophy. And there are many immigrants who, having gone through the arduous process of legal immigration, feel that anyone who entered illegally (even if they were brought here as children or are fleeing political, religious, or social persecution) should be forced to return and follow “the process”, despite the fact that the actual process for immigration into the US is badly broken.

There is a real need for a (or several) legitimate political party to represent the interests of social and political conservatives; not only to assure that these people have representation (which is the only thing that gives a “democracy” credibility) but also because regardless of what you think of the merit of progressive causes, to rapid and overwhelming of social and political change results in turmoil, distrust, and often corruption. It sucks to be part of a rejected or neglected minority in society, but it takes time–often decades–for new ideas of what is “fair” and “reasonable” to become widely accepted (e.g. gay marriage and adoption, drug decriminalization, womens’ reproductive rights, et cetera) to the point that the majority of the polity will accept it as part and parcel of living in a free society even if they personally reject it. Without that broad acceptance we end up with radical schisms that undermine the core tenets of a liberal democracy; that people should be allowed to live as the majority agrees is fair even if it isn’t in line with the morals or standards of a large minority.

However, this requires honest debate and a give-and-take compromise based upon weighing reasonable considerations. The current GOP is not about any kind of honest debate (or indeed, a debate at all) or any compromise whatsoever. Their entire stalking horse is to claim that they can’t get an inch unless they take a mile, and that the obstructionism that leaders like Mitch McConnell display is the only way to get anything even if it is actually getting them nothing at all. The Republican party is rotten at the core of its supposed ideals, which is no surprise because those ideals are penned by people like Newt Gingrich, who is a hypocritical, manipulative, deceitful propagandist whose personal morals are more chimerical than a Sasquatch riding Nessie the Loch Ness monster through the subterranean caverns of Hollow Earth.

Stranger

Here are a couple recent articles that are interesting and bear on this question:

IMHO one needs to only look back to that period post watergate. The sooner republicans distance themselves from Trump and his antics the sooner they’re back in power. Nixon helped his party too by himself fading away whereas Trump is likely too egocentrical to follow suit.

It also helped that Reagan was right there to give a face to the new direction (coming impressively close to Ford in the challenge for the 1976 nomination). Right now it’s a bit more challenging, with big sectors of “the base” focusing on fealty to Trump and a mess of potential aspirants who are in a competition to see who’s the most useless (I mean, sorry, Ted and Marco, but anyone HE trounced and then bent over without breaking a sweat is not what’s needed). But it is doable.

Wonder if it’s too late to repurpose #walkaway