# Republican challenger in Montana Senate race was endorsed by his rival
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [October 31, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801 "2018-10-31T20:31:48Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/1 "2018-10-31T20:31:48Z")
This is bad news for Jon Tester:
[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/31/libertarian\_drops\_out\_of\_montana\_senate\_race\_backs\_rosendale\_138519.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/31/libertarian_drops_out_of_montana_senate_race_backs_rosendale_138519.html)
> [@](#):
>
> The Libertarian candidate in Montana’s U.S. Senate race threw his support behind Republican Matt Rosendale on Wednesday in response to an election mailer from an unknown group that appeared aimed at undermining Rosendale’s support among conservatives. …
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### Author:  [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/2 "2018-10-31T20:33:23Z")
so the dozen Libertarians in Montana might change their votes?
> **[L.A. Efficiency Chosen As Site Of 2000 Libertarian Convention](https://www.theonion.com/l-a-efficiency-chosen-as-site-of-2000-libertarian-conv-1819565649)**
>
> LOS ANGELES–Libertarian Party officials announced Monday that their 2000 National Convention will be held August 18–20 in an efficiency apartment just off La Brea Avenue in Los Angeles.
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### Author:  [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/3 "2018-10-31T20:36:40Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#):
>
> so the dozen Libertarians in Montana might change their votes?
>
> [L.A. Efficiency Chosen As Site Of 2000 Libertarian Convention](https://politics.theonion.com/l-a-efficiency-chosen-as-site-of-2000-libertarian-conv-1819565649)
From the article:
> [@](#):
>
> The mailer is reminiscent of tactics used by Democratic-friendly groups in Tester’s 2012 race to promote Libertarian candidate Dan Cox and siphon Republican voters from Rep. Denny Rehberg.
>
> Tester won the race by 4 percentage points, and Cox captured more than 6 percent of the vote — enough to swing the election if those ballots had gone for Rehberg.
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### Author:  [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/4 "2018-10-31T20:37:44Z")
6% of Montana votes? So that’s like maybe 2 dozen?
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### Author:  [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/5 "2018-10-31T20:42:06Z")
So the Dems are claiming Rosendale is spying on them with drones. Whassamatta, they run out of tinfoil?
Regards,
Shodan
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/6 "2018-10-31T20:54:19Z")
Actually, the LP candidate probably could have counted on 5% of the vote or so. Tester leads by 4.2 in the RCP average. So yes, this is a big deal.
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### Author:  [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/7 "2018-10-31T21:02:27Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Actually, the LP candidate probably could have counted on 5% of the vote or so. Tester leads by 4.2 in the RCP average. So yes, this is a big deal.
Ha. Only if libertarian voters do what the libertarian tells them to do.
These aren’t folks who like being told what to do.
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/8 "2018-10-31T21:18:46Z")
Best rebuttal in the history of SDMB.
You’re right, many will stay home, some will go to Tester, but I do think Rosendale benefits more from this than Tester.
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### Author:  [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/9 "2018-10-31T21:31:56Z")
I’m assuming that this close to election day, even with the guy dropping out he’ll still be on the ballot right?
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/10 "2018-10-31T21:41:43Z")
Another good point. Is it the same way in Alaska, or did he get out quickly enough?
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### Author:  [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/11 "2018-10-31T23:29:06Z")
Certainly, the Libertarian endorsing the Republican will help the Republican. But I’m inclined to agree with **Lance Turbo** that it probably won’t help him by very much. Anyone who votes Libertarian (or any other third party) isn’t doing so because they expect that it’ll get the Libertarian candidate elected; they’re doing it because they want to send a message of some sort, and they consider it more important to send that message than they do to influence the election.
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### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/12 "2018-10-31T23:47:58Z")
Too little, too late. Plus, Libertarians aren’t the same as the Green Party spoilers. The left voters who vote for spoilers like Nader and Stein tend to be obsessed with ideological purity and want to punish the Democrats. Libertarians tend to be their own unique group, they’re certainly obsessive but they don’t want to punish Republicans. I had to leave a Facebook group for local politics because a few number of Libertarians ruined it with incessant posts. I highly doubt that they’d every vote any other way. Of course, eventually some will move out of their parents basement and become more mainstream
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### Author:  [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2018, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/13 "2018-10-31T23:59:16Z")
I have a hard time seeing a Libertarian as being a rival to anybody, for anything. Except maybe scraps from the dumpster.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2018, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/14 "2018-11-01T00:28:34Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#):
>
> Ha. Only if libertarian voters do what the libertarian tells them to do.
>
> These aren’t folks who like being told what to do.
Pretty much this.
Many of these people will vote for the Libertarian candidate anyway, even if they know he’s pulled out. And of those who know who he has pulled out some will stay home.
The endorsement will impact naught.
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### Author:  [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2018, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/15 "2018-11-01T00:37:15Z")
Maybe we should have a pool to guess Rick Breckenridge’s vote share. I’ll throw 5% out there.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2018, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/16 "2018-11-01T01:06:30Z")
I’ll go with 2% (cheating, 538 says the polls say 2.6% and I figure enough will stay home or switch t get it under 2.5 but not under 1.5).
Note IF the 538 polls aggregation is accurate then the whole 2.6 could go R and Tester would still win with 52% of the vote. But it would put it more in margin of doubt.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2018, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/17 "2018-11-01T10:25:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Many of these people will vote for the Libertarian candidate anyway, even if they know he’s pulled out. And of those who know who he has pulled out some will stay home.
>
> The endorsement will impact naught.
Yep. The “Libertarian” vote, such as it is, is pretty much entirely a “None of the above, the parties just suck” kind of vote. Without a frivolous candidate available to vote for to let them feel superior, they’ll just stay home.
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### Author:  [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/18 "2018-11-07T19:26:44Z")
As of right now…
Jon Tester - 224,361 - 49.3%
Matt Rosendale - 217,345 - 47.8%
Rick Breckenridge - 13,055 - 2.9%
Over 13k Montanans (more than Tester’s margin) voted for the guy who told them to vote for the other guy.
Good job!
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [November 8, 2018, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/19 "2018-11-08T00:18:20Z")
Too bad Montana doesn’t have runoffs.
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### Author:  [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)
#### Post date: [November 8, 2018, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republican-challenger-in-montana-senate-race-was-endorsed-by-his-rival/823801/20 "2018-11-08T00:43:13Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Too bad Montana doesn’t have runoffs.
Not really. Western Libertarians don’t automatically break Republican. In a runoff a substantial number would go for Tester or NOTA.
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