# Republicans lose both Governors races. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 9, 2005, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157 "2005-11-09T02:55:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Twin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@Twin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twin)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2005, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/61 "2005-11-09T20:47:42Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > The Democratic Lt candidate supported GAY MARRIAGE and ABORTION ON DEMAND. She was a proudly _self-described_ liberal. And a woman. She was outspent tremendously. The fact that she even made the race that close is utterly astounding. The Dem AG candidate was expected to do better, but coming within a few hundred votes of winning? When his opponent was virtually the annointed one and immesely popular in the cities? When he had virtually no name recognition whatsoever (my grqandmother had no idea that McDonnell even had an opponent? Not surprising to me. I am sure 99% of the people who voted for Kaine mindlessly voted for a straight democratic ticket. Similarly for Kilgore. > [@Apos](#): > > Let’s not try to spin this too hard, but this was a major Democratic upset night. Cities that had never been won by a statewide Dem in recent history, even when Warner won, went for Kaine. The Republican 72hr plan fizzled despite millions and millions spent and thousands upon thousands of immigrant campaign bodies on election day. Trying to downplay this is natural, but come on. For the last 4 years, the story has been that Warner ONLY won because he had no record of liberalism , because he was immensely rich, and because he ran a folksy, rural centered campaign that played him as a populist centrist. He pledged not to raise taxes. Now, Kaine, attacked as the most liberal guy every to run for Governor (with a record), wins on a platform of defending a tax increase, increasing education spending. And it means… nothing? It means that a very popular governor (70+ approval) was succeeded by his hand-picked successor. It means that Virginia continues the tradition of electing a governor that is politically opposed to the president. > [@Apos](#): > > Warner and Kaine passed the biggest tax increase in Virginia’s history. They were attacked for it again and again. Kaine faced a negative campaign that played on all the themes that worked so well against Kerry: that you can’t trust him, that he has no solid beliefs, that he flip-flops etc. And it failed this time. The Dems were ready. They slaughtered Kilgore and by far outperformed expectations everywhere else (don’t ask me for a cite: just look through any conservative Virginian blog’s predictions, and their last year of coverage). Kilgore started 10 points up. Republicans were describing this as a walk in the park: Kaine was a dead duck out of the gate. But now it’s all blase? Come on. This win has to say something about Dems reclaiming the sensible middle in Virginia in a big big way. And they said the same thing when Warner won in 2001. Yet Democrats continued to lose seats in 2002 and Bush easily won Virginia in 2004. I see no evidence that things will be different in 2006 or 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/62 "2005-11-10T00:08:36Z")
> [@Twin](#): > > Not surprising to me. I am sure 99% of the people who voted for Kaine mindlessly voted for a straight democratic ticket. Similarly for Kilgore. You’re not very good at math. Given the split between Kilgore and Bolling, for instance, what you describe as being the behavior of voters is impossible. But then I don’t believe you anyway. It was not two days ago that conservatives scoffed at the idea of Byrne coming even within 10 points of Bolling. And yet in hte end she came so close that a little more money and name recognition could have done it for her. Now, suddenly, the fact that she and Deeds were so close is treated as if it was expected. That, simply put, is a dishonest changing of the story after the fact. > [@](#): > > It means that a very popular governor (70+ approval) was succeeded by his hand-picked successor. Hunh. That was the Democratic spin over the course of the campaign, yes. But Republicans were saying that Kaine is no Warner and gloating about how Warner’s public endorsements had little effect. > [@](#): > > And they said the same thing when Warner won in 2001. Yet Democrats continued to lose seats in 2002 and Bush easily won Virginia in 2004. I see no evidence that things will be different in 2006 or 2008. If Warner is the nominee, then it will be very different. Even if he doesn’t seriously plan on winning Virginia, his popularity would allow him to make it competative enough for the Republicans to have to spend money on those very pricey media markets. That would be a disasterous drain on their resources country-wide. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/63 "2005-11-10T00:19:43Z")
I should note that FoxNews’ intro into the stories of last Tuesday began: “Republicans win a big victory!” They were, of course, talking about Bloomberg. Then they went on to talk about Democrats swept the big targets everywhere else without missing a beat from their original headline declaration. Apparently, the Bush line is that Kaine won because he’s basically a consrevative. That’s pretty hamhanded considering that Kaine was repeatedly descriebd as the most liberal guy to ever run for Governor in Virginia, and that all his policy proposals (defending the biggest tax increase in Virginian history, universal pre-K, defending the right to have an abortion, making taxes for schools more income based than property based) were pretty darn liberal. Do people actually BUY this sort of nonsense? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/64 "2005-11-10T01:30:33Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > I should note that FoxNews’ intro into the stories of last Tuesday began: “Republicans win a big victory!” They were, of course, talking about Bloomberg. Then they went on to talk about Democrats swept the big targets everywhere else without missing a beat from their original headline declaration. > > Apparently, the Bush line is that Kaine won because he’s basically a consrevative. That’s pretty hamhanded considering that Kaine was repeatedly descriebd as the most liberal guy to ever run for Governor in Virginia, and that all his policy proposals (defending the biggest tax increase in Virginian history, universal pre-K, defending the right to have an abortion, making taxes for schools more income based than property based) were pretty darn liberal. Do people actually BUY this sort of nonsense? Added fun is the Frisk end of the party would barely consider Bloomberg one of their own. He’s a liberal by their standards. Jim ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/65 "2005-11-10T01:55:25Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > Apparently, the Bush line is that Kaine won because he’s basically a consrevative. That’s pretty hamhanded considering that Kaine was repeatedly descriebd as the most liberal guy to ever run for Governor in Virginia, and that all his policy proposals (defending the biggest tax increase in Virginian history, universal pre-K, defending the right to have an abortion, making taxes for schools more income based than property based) were pretty darn liberal. Do people actually BUY this sort of nonsense? Republicans do. What I don’t understand about the argument that he won because he ran as a conservative is this: What the hell did Kilgore run as? If people wanted to vote for a conservative, why didn’t they? Especially when the real conservative candidate was touched on election day by the Kompassionate Konservative himself. Smacks of desperate spinning to me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/66 "2005-11-10T02:31:38Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > Apparently, the Bush line is that Kaine won because he’s basically a consrevative. That’s pretty hamhanded considering that Kaine was repeatedly descriebd as the most liberal guy to ever run for Governor in Virginia, and that all his policy proposals (defending the biggest tax increase in Virginian history, universal pre-K, defending the right to have an abortion, making taxes for schools more income based than property based) were pretty darn liberal. Do people actually BUY this sort of nonsense? Both sides are spinning this thing to absurd lengths. Pelosi is saying this is a repudiation of Bush’s policies, when anyone looking at state politics can see that these races hinge on local issues. This elections means absolutely nothing on the national level. It’s not good for Bush and the Republicans, but it certainly isn’t bad, either. Sorry, folks, but we’re going to have to wait until the '06 elections for a referendum on the national incumbent party. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/67 "2005-11-10T03:57:36Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Both sides are spinning this thing to absurd lengths. Pelosi is saying this is a repudiation of Bush’s policies, when anyone looking at state politics can see that these races hinge on local issues. This elections means absolutely nothing on the national level. It’s not good for Bush and the Republicans, but it certainly isn’t bad, either. Sorry, folks, but we’re going to have to wait until the '06 elections for a referendum on the national incumbent party. I don’t think it was a repudiation of any specific Bush policy, but it very clearly was, in part, a real sign of the weakness of his coatails and of Republican morale. If Bush had kept his re-elect vigor, he could have stumped for Kilgore left and right and made this an easy win. But that didn’t happen: couldn’t happen. The party was split, angry and bitter over things like Katrina and Miers. Infighting was exploited by the Dems. Kaine debated both Kilgore and Potts in the same night, and at the end turned to the cameras, referencing both of them, and asked voters if this kind of angry divisiveness from both Republican candidates (both against him and against each other) was really what Virginia wanted. Republican morale was low and the Democrats here did a great job of running under the table with mail and subtle message to make the case that the sort of crony corruption and incompetance in the news naitonally dragging down the GOP was Kilgore in a nutshell (which, as a matter of fact, is probably the case). They leveraged national feelings INTO the local issues. They used a mailer of a rabid anti-tax group and sent it around to Republicans statewide to show the sort of infighting within the party. They sent out mail linking Kilgore’s problems to the failures and self-contradictions of the national GOP. Full disclosure: I spent many many months working on this race. This election was a training ground for a lot of things that Democrats have wanted to try out and work on getting right going into the big season next year. Lets just say we’re pleased with what we learned and how it all worked. We won huge in areas that were supposed to be Republican strongholds: areas lost even by Mark Warner. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/68 "2005-11-10T04:12:36Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > I don’t think it was a repudiation of any specific Bush policy, but it very clearly was, in part, a real sign of the weakness of his coatails and of Republican morale. As is this stunner: > [@](#): > > House leaders late Wednesday abandoned an attempt to push through a hotly contested plan to open an Alaskan wildlife refuge to oil drilling, fearing it would jeopardize approval of a sweeping budget bill Thursday. [ANWR Drilling Dropped](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051110/ap_on_go_co/arctic_refuge) Maybe now they’ll manage to finish the 2006 budget before the start of fiscal 2007. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/69 "2005-11-10T05:43:12Z")
> [@monica](#): > > That being said, I think the management of Kilgore’s campaign made a few major errors. First of all, the negative ads were _not_ a good idea. They really served to disgust voters. Also, they were practically harassing voters. We started making Kaine phonecalls back during the summer, so everyone got a phone call every once in awhile. The Kilgore folks started making theirs really recently, which means that some of their voters were getting up to three calls a day, which really pissed those voters off. Amen. The “Kaine voluntarily defended the guy who killed my son” ad (sneering at the whole concept that the accused is entitled to present a defense) left me wondering if Kilgore has a special aide to walk behind him and clean up the slime trail. As for the phone calls, being woken up at 9 AM on Saturday after a sleep-deprived week would have killed any chance of voting for the perpetrator even if I otherwise agreed with him (if he has that much contempt for me when he is still angling for my vote, what can I expect afterwards?). ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/70 "2005-11-10T06:41:22Z")
I wonder how many message-board wits will say Kilgore automatically lost when he Godwinized his campaign. 😉 Nazi attack ads, a sure sign of desperation. Republicans thought it would suffice if Kilgore just said loudly enough he’s sooo conservative. Never mind offering anything positive to run the state well. Kaine came across like an actual human being. It looks like a sign of conservatism running out of ideas, taking its dominance for granted, which is how arrogance leads to stupidity. The Band sang, “You can’t raise a Kaine up when he’s in defeat.” Hmm, that sure doesn’t fit this election. Raising Kaine. ---
**Author:** ![Twin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@Twin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/71 "2005-11-10T13:06:17Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > Apparently, the Bush line is that Kaine won because he’s basically a consrevative. That’s pretty hamhanded considering that Kaine was repeatedly descriebd as the most liberal guy to ever run for Governor in Virginia, and that all his policy proposals (defending the biggest tax increase in Virginian history, universal pre-K, defending the right to have an abortion, making taxes for schools more income based than property based) were pretty darn liberal. Do people actually BUY this sort of nonsense? I have seen no Republicans holding up Kaine as a conservative. He was clearly a liberal, and IMHO, rode Warner’s coattails to victory. Tax increases are not always such a bad thing. Kaine did a better job of convincing Virginians (especially in Northern Virginia) that higher taxes were necessary in order to address the problems in the state, such as traffic. Commuters sitting in traffic for 90-120 minutes a day all too readily agreed with him. Kilgore should have put forth a better plan to deal with the issues of the state. I just think it’s hilarious that liberals are getting on a high horse saying “We won!”, when in the end, they merely maintained their governership, and lost their Lt. governer. They gained ONE seat in the Virginia house of delegates (with the Republicans still holding a majority). In summary, it is simply too early to tell if this local election had any national ramifications. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/72 "2005-11-10T14:18:11Z")
> [@Twin](#): > > I have seen no Republicans holding up Kaine as a conservative. Really? It was Scotty Mac’s big explanation yesterday. The audio was on NPR. Here’s one googled reference for you: > [@](#): > > New Jersey is a state dominated by Democrats and in Virginia Kaine `ran as a conservative'' pushing a platform `that is very different from the national party,’’ McClellan said, citing gun ownership rights, tax cuts and a ban on partial-birth abortions. [http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axCzygWbCCDA&refer=us](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axCzygWbCCDA&refer=us) It is too early to tell if this is part of a trend, I agree. But it isn’t the only bit of data out there. Certainly a lot could happen over the next year, but there were other races, other votes on Propositions, and lots of polling data that the Virginia governors race aligns with. YMMV as well. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/73 "2005-11-10T14:30:40Z")
Kaine was a liberal who moderated some of his views to make himself more electable as a moderate here. I think the evidence is pretty clear on this point, and most Kaine supporters would agree with this statement. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/74 "2005-11-10T14:43:07Z")
Has anyone found an overview of the results of smalltime races? Was there a significant trend towards electing democratic dog catchers, or republican weed board candidates? ---
**Author:** ![Twin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@Twin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/75 "2005-11-10T14:56:25Z")
> [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > Really? It was Scotty Mac’s big explanation yesterday. The audio was on NPR. Here’s one googled reference for you: Thanks. I hadn’t sen that. ---
**Author:** ![Twin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@Twin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/76 "2005-11-10T14:57:30Z")
> [@Twin](#): > > Thanks. I hadn’t **sen** that. **Seen** , even. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/77 "2005-11-10T14:59:17Z")
Does anyone have election results from VA and NJ for yesterady vs 4 years ago? Fred Barnes was saying that the VA governor’s race split the vote almost exactly the same as it did 4 years ago (Dem vs Rep) and that the Dems won in NJ by a smaller margin than they did 4 years ago. If true, that would belie the “big win” for the Democrats, since Bush’s approval rating was sky high 4 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Twin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@Twin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/78 "2005-11-10T15:10:29Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Does anyone have election results from VA and NJ for yesterady vs 4 years ago? Fred Barnes was saying that the VA governor’s race split the vote almost exactly the same as it did 4 years ago (Dem vs Rep) and that the Dems won in NJ by a smaller margin than they did 4 years ago. If true, that would belie the “big win” for the Democrats, since Bush’s approval rating was sky high 4 years ago. **John** , [this](http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/columns/barone_051109.htm) may interest you. Specifically: > [@](#): > > What strikes me most about the two state elections is how similar the results were to those in 2001 in the same contests. > > Virginia 2001: [Warner (D) 52 to 47 percent.](http://www.sbe.state.va.us/web_docs/election/results/2001/nov2001/html/index.htm) > Virginia 2005: [Kaine (D) 52 to 46 percent.](http://www.sbe.vipnet.org/) > New Jersey 2001: McGreevey (D) 56 to 42 percent. > New Jersey 2005: [Corzine (D) 53 to 44 percent.](http://www.state.nj.us/lps/elections/2005results/05_generalelection/unofficial_gen_elect_gov_results.pdf) > > Republicans appear to have won, narrowly, the other two statewide offices up in Virginia this time; they won one and lost one four years ago. Republicans went into the 2005 election with 60 of the 100 seats in the House of Delegates; they emerged with 59 votes. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/79 "2005-11-10T15:13:16Z")
> [@Twin](#): > > **John** , [this](http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/columns/barone_051109.htm) may interest you. Specifically: Thanks. Now, I know you it’s dicey to compare elections with different people running, just looking at party results, but can someone tell me how this is a big victory for the Democrats? Seems that Bush is irrelevent in the equation. In fact, the Dems did better 4 years ago when Bush’s approval rating was twice what it is today. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157/80 "2005-11-10T15:59:10Z")
And very importantly, this victory by the Democrats four years ago did not lead to tremendous gains in the congressional delegation or U.S. Senate seats here. In fact, in these years Democrats lost ground. In 2000, Virginia was represented in Congress by six Republicans, one independent and four Democrats. Today, it’s eight Republicans and three Democrats. Throughout this time, we’ve had two Republican senators. The last Democratic one, Chuck Robb, was beaten in 2000 by George Allen, who is pretty popular here himself. The delegate races have already been mentioned. I have said that it was a good night for Democrats. However, in this state it wasn’t a great night for them, and these standings show that the Democrats have a long hard road ahead of them here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-lose-both-governors-races/330157.md?page=5)