# Republicans predict GOP "tsunami" in coming House & Senate elections - Why? I really don't see it **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 19, 2014, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121 "2014-03-19T23:33:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/101 "2014-03-24T18:52:16Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > It’s arguable Obama is actually a worse President than Carter. Carter wasn’t actually all that bad on domestic policy, and his weakness at foreign policy at least showed that he had some backbone. Carter took much more forceful and rapid political actions against the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan than Obama has done against Crimea–Carter at least realized when “consensus building” no longer had any place in his foreign policy decisions. How do you explain Obama’s use of the Navy SEALs in aborting the seizure of a tanker full of oil from Libya? The Libyan government is in its infancy and the loss of that tanker would have been a big challange to the authority of that government. Instead, a surgical strike prevented this loss from happening and the US’ stature in Libya is greatly enhanced. I guess events in Libya only matter when The Four Most Important People In The History Of The Universe die at the hands of a mob. Funny how John McCain wasn’t all over this one, heaping praise on a major foreign policy success of Obama’s. Unlike the previous occupant of his office, Obama doesn’t rush in with guns blazing. He didn’t start two unnecessary wars and isn’t about to start a third over Crimea. Sometimes diplomacy and sanctions make the correct path, sometimes decisive action. Obama has shown he can do both. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2014, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/102 "2014-03-25T19:36:38Z")
The other Udall looks safe at least: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nm/new\_mexico\_senate\_clements\_vs\_udall-4989.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_clements_vs_udall-4989.html) And Susana Martinez is vulnerable against one of the three main contenders for the Democratic nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/103 "2014-03-26T19:55:07Z")
Cross-posed: > [@Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Take The Senate](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/1): > > Nate Silver did startlingly well in predicting the 2012 elections, now he predicts that the GOP stands a 60 percent chance of taking control of the Senate, gaining exactly six seats, the minimum number needed to do so. [Here’s a Huffington Post story about it.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/24/nate-silver-gop-senate_n_5020271.html) > > Two questions occur: what, if anything, can the Democrats do to turn things around and retain control of the Senate? > > And should the worst happen, and it certainly looks like it WILL happen, how does this change the Democratic game plan with regard to retaining the gains made in the last six years and turning things around in 2016? > > I personally think Obama will have to do a LOT of vetoing. I doubt the Republicans will be able to get the 2/3 majority needed to override a veto in the Senate, and that’s all that will save Obamacare and a lot of other legislation, too. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/104 "2014-03-27T00:46:45Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > How do you explain Obama’s use of the Navy SEALs in aborting the seizure of a tanker full of oil from Libya? The Libyan government is in its infancy and the loss of that tanker would have been a big challange to the authority of that government. Instead, a surgical strike prevented this loss from happening and the US’ stature in Libya is greatly enhanced. I guess events in Libya only matter when The Four Most Important People In The History Of The Universe die at the hands of a mob. Funny how John McCain wasn’t all over this one, heaping praise on a major foreign policy success of Obama’s. > > Unlike the previous occupant of his office, Obama doesn’t rush in with guns blazing. He didn’t start two unnecessary wars and isn’t about to start a third over Crimea. Sometimes diplomacy and sanctions make the correct path, sometimes decisive action. Obama has shown he can do both. Those are extremely minor military activities, less even than a skirmish. That’s the expected behavior of the United States in situations like that since the 1940s. It’s not as significant as several special operations missions Carter signed off on (some of which were riskier.) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/105 "2014-03-28T17:12:14Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Those are extremely minor military activities, less even than a skirmish. That’s the expected behavior of the United States in situations like that since the 1940s. It’s not as significant as several special operations missions Carter signed off on (some of which were riskier.) You can bet your sweet ass that if that mission went south, John McCain would have sprinted to a microphone and masturbated like a motherfucker. Republicans have one less fairly safe seat, Mike Rogers of Michigan (actually, my rep) is giving up his seat after this term to pursue a job in right wing propaganda radio. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/106 "2014-03-28T22:02:17Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > It’s arguable Obama is actually a worse President than Carter. Carter wasn’t actually all that bad on domestic policy, and his weakness at foreign policy at least showed that he had some backbone. Carter took much more forceful and rapid political actions against the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan than Obama has done against Crimea–Carter at least realized when “consensus building” no longer had any place in his foreign policy decisions. That is probably because Obama has judged – **correctly** – that there is no **point** in his taking any action WRT Crimea. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/107 "2014-03-29T00:13:42Z")
We signed a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders. While it does not require us to take military action, it does require us to make sure Russia pays some kind of price and to aid Ukraine. Which is what we’re doing, so all good there. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/108 "2014-03-29T01:34:49Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That is probably because Obama has judged – **correctly** – that there is no **point** in his taking any action WRT Crimea. Or, more specifically, that there is no action he **can** take that would restore Ukraine’s sovereignty over it. And that may not even be what the Crimeans want, given the undoubtedly large (even if not 97%, get real) amount of pro-Russian-annexation sentiment there. Additionally, if losing a large part of the Moscow-oriented population of Ukraine means a stronger majority for the Westernizers, that gives them a freer hand to join the EU and NATO and the rest of that package. It may mean that Putin’s grab of Crimea will cost him his control over the entire rest of Ukraine. If he goes into the Donetsk region, though, he won’t be able to claim it was historically part of Russia and he’s simply reversing a recent order of a former Soviet leader. So, the new Ukraine government had better hurry up with the NATO application. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/109 "2014-03-29T04:03:40Z")
Ukraine won’t be joining NATO. NATO’s already in deep because we guarantee the Baltic Republics and Poland’s borders with the threat of military force. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/110 "2014-03-29T07:28:54Z")
So far, the first big gaffe isn’t from a Republican. It’s from a Democrat in Iowa who has made a seat that wasn’t competitive before competitive now. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/111 "2014-03-29T14:41:08Z")
Details, please? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/112 "2014-03-29T15:04:53Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Details, please? There’s a Dem Senate candidate in Iowa who described Chuck Grassley as “just a farmer who never went to law school”. Which is apparently a HUGE faux pas. Or at least right-wing media is describing it that way. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/113 "2014-03-29T16:19:54Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > There’s a Dem Senate candidate in Iowa who described Chuck Grassley as “just a farmer who never went to law school”. Which is apparently a HUGE faux pas. Or at least right-wing media is describing it that way. Yeah, it’s kind of in the ballpark of the 47% comment. You really want to be careful using terms that describe a LOT of your constituency as pejoratives or make you sound elitist. It amazes me that any reasonably seasoned politico could still that ANY comment is made in private and will never see the light of day. It’s early enough that he could still recover, but some major damage control needs to be done. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121/114 "2014-03-29T17:10:23Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > There’s a Dem Senate candidate in Iowa who described Chuck Grassley as “just a farmer who never went to law school”. Which is apparently a HUGE faux pas. Or at least right-wing media is describing it that way. They ought to consider that a _compliment_, oughtn’t they? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/republicans-predict-gop-tsunami-in-coming-house-senate-elections-why-i-really-dont-see-it/684121.md?page=5)