Since Obama had on his change.gov site that he would work to re-enact the assault weapons ban and other gun control measures, I’d say the risk is pretty high. I actually have a bet with a friend of mine that it’ll be one of his first 100 days measures.
Obama has removed the statement since it caused a furor last week, but it’s archived here: http://74.125.45.104/search?q=cache:lZ5nLB1m2TMJ:www.change.gov/agenda/urbanpolicy/+gun+site:change.gov&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
Here’s the gun section: *Address Gun Violence in Cities: As president, Barack Obama would repeal the Tiahrt Amendment, which restricts the ability of local law enforcement to access important gun trace information, and give police officers across the nation the tools they need to solve gun crimes and fight the illegal arms trade. Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn’t have them. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets. *
The Tiahrt Amendment keeps gun ownership search data exclusive to law enforcement personnel in the conducting of criminal investigations and prevents its release to outside parties.
The “gun show loophole” is a red herring. All licensed dealers must complete all Federal paperwork and background checks for any weapons they sell, regardless of whether that’s at their shop or at a gun show. What “closing the gun show loophole” means is that private owners would not be able to sell their guns to other private owners without going to a licensed dealer to have him/her complete the forms and background check. That would enable the dealers to collect “transfer fees” and also for the government to exact a transfer tax, which could be set a punitively high rate.
Guns cannot be made childproof, but impractical technologies like a magnetic ring that disengages an internal safety or a key code have been bandied about by gun control enthusiasts for several years as a means of inacting an indirect ban.
The entire purpose for the Second Amendment, according to the Miller decision was to ensure that military style arms were available to the average U.S. citizen should they choose to own them. Ironically, the decision that upheld the first nationwide gun prohibition did so by approving a tax and registration law as an alleged revenue raising measure. The language specifically affirms the right to own military firearms.
So, yeah. The facts and his record clearly point to Obama moving to take away guns. Clinton had a majority Republican Congress through most of his tenure. Obama will be starting with a huge party advantage in the legislature. Obama has in the past endorsed a ban on all semi-automatic weapons and, despite saying he supports the right to keep and bear arms, voted in favor of every gun restriction bill that came before him in Illinois. Note that when the Supreme Court affirmed an individual right to own firearms in the Heller decision, he said he supported the Second Amendment. He didn’t say he agreed with the decision. Big difference.
Things are about to get very, very bad for gun owners.