# Retaliatory tariffs **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 24, 2025, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322 "2025-01-24T04:48:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/321 "2025-04-03T14:40:26Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I think I made a thread some years ago about “folk economics” I love this term and I’m stealing it without apology. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/322 "2025-04-03T14:41:46Z")
Haha go ahead. I did make it up, but I also very much doubt I’m the first to refer to this phenomenon this way. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/323 "2025-04-03T14:46:23Z")
Well being a tariff-free zone is just one small facet of the EU’s reason for being. The tariffs on non-EU countries are not that high in most cases anyway (e.g. less than 2% on average for US goods; someone slipped with the sharpie (as well as brain and reality) when drawing up Trump’s table). But yes, I expect we’ll see even freer trading between former US allies. What will be interesting will be the attitude to China and the rest of Asia. I still think it’s politically untenable to lift pressure on China, but certainly some will be calling for it. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/324 "2025-04-03T14:59:14Z")
I also love this term: this is exactly what it is, a series of folk beliefs about economics. (I say this as a folklorist.) ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/325 "2025-04-03T15:01:22Z")
This probably belongs here, too: > **[De minimis trade loophole that boosted Chinese online retailers to end May 2](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/de-minimis-trade-loophole-to-end-may-2-white-house-says.html)** > > The announcement, which came alongside a set of sweeping new tariffs, gives customs officials, retailers and logistics companies a month to prepare. The trade agreement that allowed companies like Shein and Temu to ship direct-to-customer from China are about to take a _big_ hit. Key points (from the article): > [@](#): > > - President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending the de minimis trade loophole, effective May 2. > - Trump had briefly suspended the loophole in February, before delaying its cancellation after it proved challenging for customs officials, delivery companies and retailers to adjust to on short notice. > - The de minimis trade loophole has helped propel Chinese e-commerce upstarts Temu and Shein to explosive growth in the U.S. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/326 "2025-04-03T15:02:42Z")
The EU’s reason for being is sure not to impose tariffs on other countries. The tariffs on US products (and Canada’s, and the UK’s too, for that matter), for instance, are below 3%. How the fool in the White House came up with the number he quoted yesterday is a mistery. Paul Krugman tries to explain: > **[Trump Goes Crazy on Trade](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-goes-crazy-on-trade?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=277517&post_id=160453846&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=203721&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email)** > > “Liberation Day” is even worse than expected The posts before that one and after that one are worth reading too. Crazy stuff, fractally stupid, deeply incompetent. Sad times! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/327 "2025-04-03T15:04:07Z")
The DJI is down 1550. Not a record drop but bad. It’s sort of levelling out now, I suspect in part because there’s always a suspicion Trump will reverse himself. Other indexes are all down as well. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/328 "2025-04-03T15:07:24Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > The tariffs on US products (and Canada’s, and the UK’s too, for that matter), for instance, are below 3%. How the fool in the White House came up with the number he quoted yesterday is a mistery. It’s actually not a mystery, they’ve actually published their “formula” themselves. It’s not a mystery, it’s just really, really stupid. > **[How were Donald Trump's tariffs calculated?](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o)** > > Analysts have questioned claims that new tariffs are reciprocal and based on those charged against the US. > But if you unpick the formula above it boils down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/329 "2025-04-03T15:08:45Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Other indexes are all down as well. Except for the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) otherwise known as the “Fear Index”. It’s up almost 7%. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/330 "2025-04-03T15:36:36Z")
It seems like the only way to make money in the market is to play contrarian. Shorting the US economy, as it were. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/331 "2025-04-03T15:53:32Z")
> Wow, I had no idea the the University of American Samoa has an economics department or that its alumni fill the Council of Economic Advisors. Go Land Crabs! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/332 "2025-04-03T16:03:24Z")
Jesus H. Christ. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/333 "2025-04-03T16:16:48Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > Go Land Crabs! As the economy dies a death by a thousand pinches. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/334 "2025-04-03T16:18:39Z")
The soft shell inherit the Earth. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/335 "2025-04-03T16:31:42Z")
Paul Krugman has the formula on his substack: > **[Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the)** > > Trump’s tariffs are a disaster. His policy process is worse. I do not understand the math of the formula, but that’s apparently OK: > [@](#): > > Ignore the Greek letters, which cancel each other out. . . . That USTR note, in particular, reads like something written by a student who hasn’t done the reading and is trying to bullshit their way through an exam. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/336 "2025-04-03T16:55:42Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I think I made a thread some years ago about “folk economics” I agree that this is a brilliant coining. Got a link? ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/337 "2025-04-03T16:58:21Z")
Here it is. Search actually came through this time. > [@Principles of "Folk Economics"](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/principles-of-folk-economics/767912): > > IANA economist, but ISTM there are certain principles of “folk economics” that are so widely-believed that politicians have no choice but to pander to them. When I googled “folk economics” I see that there’s a [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folk_economics) but it’s just a stub. Maybe there’s a better term for this? Anyway, in the meantime, I thought it would be interesting to try to list out some of the implicit economic premises many believe: [ol] [li]Obvious one to start: economics is zero sum. For one person / company … ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/338 "2025-04-03T17:18:15Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Someone on Reddit posted this handy map: I see Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) gets 10% whereas Lesotho gets 45 to 50%. These two barely function as countries. Lesotho’s primary export is water, to South Africa. Eswatini has roughly nothing to contribute to the global economy, except labour, (and cannabis) again to South Africa. I mean, this is not plausibly anything but performative racism. ---
**Author:** ![ZipperJJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zipperjj/32/211_2.png) [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/339 "2025-04-03T17:37:49Z")
Sorry if this has already been asked but what is the prediction that tariff money will actually come rolling in and boost the US government’s coffers? I totally understand how these tariffs will affect the American consumer. But is the understanding that trade will continue on as normal and those extra dollars we pay for everything due to tariffs will be turned over to the government? Or is the understanding that we will stop buying stuff and/or other countries will stop selling us stuff, and the amount of money coming in from tariffs won’t be significant? I guess what I’m asking is will Trump be able to prove himself right by pointing to the US Tariff Fund and saying “Look at all this money we made!”? (regardless of how it got there, or what he plans to do with it) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322/340 "2025-04-03T17:53:50Z")
> [@ZipperJJ](#): > > But is the understanding that trade will continue on as normal and those extra dollars we pay for everything due to tariffs will be turned over to the government? Or is the understanding that we will stop buying stuff and/or other countries will stop selling us stuff, and the amount of money coming in from tariffs won’t be significant? I’d say that economic forecasts are divided. In the short-term, at least, companies will continue to import goods & materials to the US and pay the tariffs. That money will go the federal government. Those companies will almost certainly increase prices to offset the increased cost of importing the good/material. So inflation is the likely immediate result. The White House predicts they will bring in $600-$700B a year. Obviously two economists will give you three opinions about how accurate that number is. In the intermediate term, it is possible that some goods that are no longer cost-competitive will no stop being imported. I suppose the companies importing those goods will either look for domestic (or other foreign) sources, or just go out of business if the losses are too big. I guess the pipe-dream scenario is that somehow all of the companies that have outsourced production to Vietnam (for example) will decide instead to make their shoes in the US, with US labor laws, and US labor rates, and US environmental protections and all of those shoe-making jobs will pay so well that the US labor market will explode and the industrial middle class of the 1950s and 60s will come roaring back to life. Most likely, I’d say, is that various side-deals will be made to exempt specific industries and/or companies from the new rates. Whenever Trump does something my first instinct is to look for opportunities for accumulating power and/or graft. Having the ability to add/remove/modify massive tariffs for any company/industry that is willing to play ball seems like a nice power for an autocrat to have… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/retaliatory-tariffs/1013322.md?page=18)