PRINCETON, NJ – U.S. adults are evenly split in their reactions to the major deficit-reduction plans being debated in Washington. Forty-four percent prefer the Democratic plan proposed by President Barack Obama, while 43% say Republican Rep. Paul Ryan’s plan is better.
For there to be a revolutionary situation in the United States it would need to be the case that at least sixty percent of the country was decided on a course of action that a powerful minority blocked. With our democratic government, that would be unlikely. Most Americans want a better economy, but that cannot be achieved by creating barricades and fighting in the street.
It may be the case that we are headed for civil unrest and riots, but nothing good will come of it. America does not need a Revolution. We need a more effective Obama administration.
One “course of action” won’t do. The people will not take to the streets in revolution-making numbers to force implementation of a government spending cap, or to ban abortion, or any one thing. It would have to be a whole set of frustrations adding up to a general perception, right or wrong, that there is a “powerful minority” and it is objectionable and it is entrenched and can’t be got rid of by ordinary electoral means. (It helps not one little bit that this indispensable perception is actually the truth, in America today and for decades past. We know it helps not one little bit, because we see how mixed is the public reaction when a serious pol like John Edwards even hints at it.)
Minority factions can also make revolutions. A revolutionary situation depends on a widespread and deep discontent with the status quo – but not on that discontent having any particular positive direction. In Russia in 1917, practically anyone who had any political opinions at all or even really understood the word “politics” (probably a minority of the total population – 80% peasants*) was a “socialist” of one kind or another, but the different socialist factions had very different ideas about what that meant. (To the largest party, the peasant-based Socialist Revolutionaries, it mainly meant land reform – i.e., the rather Jeffersonian idea of distributing the landlords’ estates in smallholdings to peasant families – not collectivization or nationalization.) Nevertheless, the Bolsheviks, a definite minority despite the name (polled less than 25% in the post-Revolution elections to the Constituent Assembly), were able to seize the moment and take the revolution their way.
In some remote villages in Russia, peasants who heard news of “the Revolution” in 1917 at first thought Revolyutsiya was simply the name of the new Tsar.
No, America needs a more progressive Obama Administration. But, Obama is no progressive (by which I mean something well to the left of “liberal” and well to the right of “socialist”); which does not mean progressives should not back him.
Obama tried to push a progressive policy, the Single Payer plan. The Tea Party came out in vast hordes to oppose it. Where were the Progressive rallies? Can anyone tell me where they were? I didn’t see any at all. Obama then dropped his support for the idea. One has to wonder why.
Progressives need to courage-up. Finally, they seem to be answering the call as of late… except now the media is engaged in a complete and total blackout against them. For instance I have never seen the Wisconsin protests on any TV news network, and only scarce sideshow-level coverage on cable.
PRINCETON, NJ – Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004. The 21% calling themselves liberal is in line with findings throughout this decade, but is up from the 1990s.
The United States remains a center right country. President Obama could change that, the way Franklin Roosevelt did change it, but he would need success on the economy. The Democrat Party, and the liberal persuasion never recovered from the failures of the Lyndon Johnson administration.
During the late 1960s and early 1970s there was more energy on the left because of the War in Vietnam. The War in Vietnam was a colossal mistake: as many as 80 percent of the Vietnamese supported the Communists; Vietnam was unimportant to our security or economy.
Nevertheless, the important movement during that time was not the anti war movement, but the movement of white blue collar workers from the Democrat Party to the Republican Party. That movement was motivated by the black ghetto riots, the rise in crime, and issues like affirmative action and forced school busing.
In 1973 President Nixon ended the draft. The Supreme Court legalized abortion. Ostensibly, those seemed like victories for the left. From a recruiting standpoint they were unfortunate. Since that happened the left has not been able to appeal to the well educated and the affluent on the basis of self interest.
The Republican Party has become the party of the white majority of all income groups. Race has become a better predictor of voting behavior than either income or education. The Republican Party appeals to the economic self interest of affluent whites, and to cultural concerns of non affluent whites. Usually those appeals have been enough to win elections.
They’re going to jump the shark with Hispanics, who rarely ever vote over 33% GOP, and blacks are right out, with something like 90% voting Democratic. Once the Republicans are exposed for their lies, particularly the ones that portray Democrats as the party of Welfare as opposed to the party of the working class, it’s over for the GOP.
What’s keeping the GOP alive is its ability to pit the working class against each other.
Few people remember the words of Jay Gould: “I can hire one-half of the working class to kill the other half.”
Opposition to gay marriage is declining. Opoosition to abortion seems to be increasing slightly. Whites are likely to continue to trust the Republicans more on law enforcement. Whites are becoming increasingly concerned with losing majority status as a result of Hispanic immigration. However, rich Republicans benefit from an influx of low wage labor, so Republican efforts to slow immigration are likely to be loud and visible, but ineffective.
As someone said upthread, for the majority, things really aren’t that bad. They might not be as great as they once were, or as great as you’d like them, but not bad enough to take to arms. If something is not done soon about these issues of the poor and there rights diminished my father will get the ones who mad america into a slot machine for the rich!
Issues value over human life 2 believing what is on paper and not thinking for themselves 3 not giving children free thought but taught lies! 4 a labor force so that people have and option to work so they can pay there bills! 5 taxes for business to be low in new undeveloped ares and also non developed areas based on there income as like wallmart closed them down! 6 And option to opt out in all social and welfare services to those that do not want the intrusion that they cause and a way for them to rebuild there lives as in labor! 'And last Seven if a person owns something and goes to another state. They do not have to re buy what they have and for the states to honor them as new citizens and let them come and go without taxation for there car home or life. 'Freedom to cross boarders without checks and balance as this cannot be used for the good of man but is the thing you should not do give them rights to go abroad and under the laws of the land of the place they travel to or they are in. For one year than they must decide to become a citizen of that place or return to where they are from!
**If these serious issues are not agreed upon every nation will fall! **
'Amen I am the one Paul told you to listen to with warnings my warning today is be mindful of what you eat As in red meat or anything that creeps crawls or swims in the ocean or even that flys in the air these things will make you crazy I AM told me to warn you it used to be against the law long ago!
But, richard, as I am sure you would agree, the fecundity of the gutta-percha forestalls the deconstructed resurrection of any of the cabbage empires, whether squamous or colloidal.
Which is where the problem for the Conservative majority lies. The country is shifting toward a racially multi-lateral society, and with race becoming a better predictor of voting patterns…
Well, let’s just say I am on track with my predictions that Conservatism will hit an as of yet seen monstrous crescendo before it totally implodes… somewhere around 2050.
By 2050 the Republican Party will have done a lot of damage to the United States, the world, and the environment.
Also, in the United States blacks and Hispanics often hate each other in areas where they live in proximity. After they have been in the United States for a generation or two most East Asians are more affluent than most whites.
About the only thing we can be confident of is that if whites become a minority in the United States they will be even more likely to vote Republican. Many, perhaps most East Asians will too.
A Democratic coalition of blacks and Hispanics will be unstable.
I think the Democrat Party needs to win back much of the South and most of the white working class. Jimmy Carter came close to doing that. Unfortunately, he was thwarted by the Iranian Revolution. He was not responsible for the Revolution. He was not responsible for the gasoline shortages and the inflation that resulted from it. Nevertheless, he did not respond to the challenge well. Great leaders respond well to great challenges.
For the same reason that the overwhelming majority of whites in states with large black populations vote Republican. Loyalties of race and ethnicity are stronger than loyalties of class.
But, richard, as I am sure you would agree, the fecundity of the gutta-percha forestalls the deconstructed resurrection of any of the cabbage empires, whether squamous or colloidal.