# RFK JR seems to be gaining steam **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2023, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451 "2023-11-02T01:00:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/21 "2023-11-02T06:08:49Z")
Look, 90% of those polled have no fucking idea who he is and how crazy he is. They just see **“KENNEDY”**. They hate trump, life is not perfect and that is the incumbent presidents fault, so who else is there? Oh, a **“KENNEDY”**. He will disappear like a drop of water on a hot frying pan. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/22 "2023-11-02T06:22:24Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > There’s no way the RFK Loonier is going to pick up 22% of the vote. Give me a break. I agree. But elections are so close these days it is the spoiler effect at work here. Which side will he take more votes from? It does not need to be much to change the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/23 "2023-11-02T06:31:12Z")
Also, as with Nader, RFK Jr. need only have an effect in a very limited number of states to affect the nationwide outcome. If he has only 2% of the nationwide vote, which seems to me a lot, that means he’s going to range from less than 0.5% in some states to 5% in others, and if it’s at all disproportionate between both parties, that could present a problem in a few battleground states. He’s a total whackjob, and a terrible public speaker, so I think he’s going to hurt Trump more overall, ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/24 "2023-11-02T13:35:22Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Look, 90% of those polled have no fucking idea who he is and how crazy he is. They just see **“KENNEDY”**. They hate trump, life is not perfect and that is the incumbent presidents fault, so who else is there? Oh, a **“KENNEDY”**. > > He will disappear like a drop of water on a hot frying pan. Agree 100% with your first paragraph. That’s what these polls mean _now_. Name recognition matters, and **“KENNEDY”** is a celebrity name. Not so sure about your second. The “pox on both houses” attitude is strong out in Low-InformationLand, regardless of how well-founded it is or isn’t. So IMO this is what will end up happening _if_ he ends up on all 50 ballots, and will probably still happen if he ends up on ballots only in the few swing states: > [@slicedalone](#): > > Also, as with Nader, RFK Jr. need only have an effect in a very limited number of states to affect the nationwide outcome. If he has only 2% of the nationwide vote, which seems to me a lot, that means he’s going to range from less than 0.5% in some states to 5% in others, and if it’s at all disproportionate between both parties, that could present a problem in a few battleground states. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/25 "2023-11-05T00:36:40Z")
RFK Jr has come back home to the anti-vax crowd. > **[RFK Jr. comes ‘home’ to his anti-vaccine group, commits to ‘a break’ for U.S....](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/rfk-jr-comes-home-anti-vaccine-group-commits-break-us-infectious-disea-rcna123551)** > > He has suggested without evidence that researchers and pharmaceutical companies are driven by profit to neglect chronic conditions. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/26 "2023-11-05T00:47:38Z")
The best way to profit is to sell a drug someone will eat every day for the rest of their life. Doubly so if it’s a disease lots of people have. BS meet detector. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/27 "2023-11-05T01:02:26Z")
And the best way to win a Nobel Prize in Medicine is to eliminate the need for that pill. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/28 "2023-11-05T01:04:48Z")
> [@slicedalone](#): > > He’s a total whackjob, and a terrible public speaker, so I think he’s going to hurt Trump more overall, I lean this way, but not for those reasons 🙂 Suppose Cornel West and Kennedy are both on the ballot. Then the Democrats (and Independents who tend to vote Democratic), who can’t stand Biden, will mostly vote West. So there won’t be as many disaffected Democrats for Kennedy to pick up, and he will almost surely hurt Trump. What if West doesn’t make it onto a state’s ballot, and Kennedy does? Then the certainty, as to how Kennedy would affect the race, declines. West is of course a bigger worry for Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/29 "2023-11-05T01:45:45Z")
[Aaron Blake in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/01/how-rights-elevation-robert-f-kennedy-jr-could-now-backfire/) provided some numbers on RFK. Not on who is going to vote for whom, but on personal likes and dislikes. (Obligatory disclaimer: early polls mean little.) > The latest [polling from Quinnipiac University](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878) shows that Republicans like Kennedy by a 30-point margin, 48 percent favorable to 18 percent unfavorable. > > Democrats, meanwhile, have developed an overwhelming distaste. The Quinnipiac poll shows just 14 percent have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 57 percent who have an unfavorable one. > > Democrats [never particularly liked Kennedy](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rfk-jr-democrat-republican-primary-favorability/), despite what you might have been led to believe. But he’s gone from 14 points underwater (more unfavorable than favorable) with them in mid-June, to 23 points underwater in late June, to 26 points in July, to 31 points in August, and now to 43 points underwater. Trends are _somewhat_ more reliable than individual polls, so this shows why there are so many articles about Republicans hating on Kennedy lately. And [Realclearpolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/robert_f_kennedy_favorableunfavorable-8196.html) compilation of favorability polls shows a distinct downward trend for him in the past few months. Any normal politician would get the message from this. Kennedy is not normal: at best he’s a True Believer type, just like Cornel West. This type stays in as long as the money holds out. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/30 "2023-11-05T01:57:28Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Kennedy is not normal: at best he’s a True Believer type In that case I know of the perfect running mate for him. [![](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:2000/format:webp/1*pa0qCxYSOuoCN8u1rmvMRw.jpeg) ](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:2000/format:webp/1*pa0qCxYSOuoCN8u1rmvMRw.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/31 "2023-11-05T02:31:41Z")
> [@](#): > > The latest [polling from Quinnipiac University](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878) shows that Republicans like Kennedy by a 30-point margin, 48 percent favorable to 18 percent unfavorable. What this tells me: Republicans like disloyal Democrats more than Democrats like disloyal Republicans. However, if a Republican wants to vote for a conspiracy minded candidate, they can vote for their party’s nominee, and will. Democrats like that will have more reason to go third party. So I don’t think the above quoted polling numbers tell us much about how voters will vote, even if the poll had been conducted next October. Am I then thinking that Kennedy will help Trump? Not really. Without knowing the whole Kennedy ticket, and what other third party candidates are on the ballot, it’s purest guesswork. Kennedy/Lindell is certainly a dream ticket from a Democratic POV. And too good to be true! ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/32 "2023-11-05T13:52:17Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > West is of course a bigger worry for Democrats. Has anyone not on the P&E forum even heard of Cornel West? I’m barely aware of him. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/33 "2023-11-05T16:00:39Z")
I vaguely remember West attacking Obama, i think for not being authentically Black, maybe? ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/34 "2023-11-05T16:46:19Z")
> …we end up with a Republican, a Rockefeller Republican in blackface, with Barack Obama… > **[Cornel West: Obama a 'Republican in Blackface'](https://www.ebony.com/cornel-west-obama-a-republican-in-blackface-981/)** > > Cornel West has made it clear that he feels that President Obama should be more proactive in tackling issues like poverty and the prison-industrial complex. Some African Americans see the professor’s views as divisive, while others say he’s speaking... ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/35 "2023-11-05T19:44:37Z")
Cornel West is also a fellow at the Sanders Institute, so money will be no object. > **[Dr. Cornel West - The Sanders Institute](https://sandersinstitute.org/fellows/cornel-west)** ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/36 "2023-11-05T22:09:17Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > Has anyone not on the P&E forum even heard of Cornel West? I’m barely aware of him. Wasn’t he in one of the Matrix sequels? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/37 "2023-11-05T22:29:15Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > Has anyone not on the P&E forum even heard of Cornel West? I’m barely aware of him. Most politically active black folk will have heard of him. And I suspect he is recognizable to a reasonable number of white liberals. He came to speak at my grad school, but I was aware of him before then through TV appearance. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/38 "2024-02-04T01:22:11Z")
Unless I’m missing something, he is no longer gaining steam, with the most recent poll having him at 21 percent: [Three-way Polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy) It’s actually worse than that because of the difficulty in gaining ballot access for a brand new third party: [Robert F. Kennedy Jr. mulls running for president as Libertarian](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-libertarian-ballot-access/) > [@](#): > > Kennedy has [qualified for the ballot in only one state so far, Utah](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-meets-utah-signature-threshold-to-qualify-for-presidential-election-ballot/). He has also met the signature threshold in New Hampshire but hasn’t filed because his campaign is still finalizing its paperwork. I doubt the libertarians will want him due to not actually being a libertarian. More can be found by clicking around in here: [Ballot Access News](https://ballot-access.org/) ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/39 "2024-02-04T01:45:14Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I doubt the libertarians will want him due to not actually being a libertarian. Since when has that ever stop the libertarians? They claim Ayn Rand as their philosophical messiah despite her describing them as [“a monstrous, disgusting bunch of people” who “plagiarize my ideas when that fits their purpose”.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Objectivism_and_libertarianism#Rand%27s_view_of_libertarians) ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451/40 "2024-02-04T01:47:49Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I doubt the libertarians will want him due to not actually being a libertarian. > [@Dissonance](#): > > Since when has that ever stop the libertarians? Eh, Sanders ran as a Democrat without ever being a member of the party. It just matters if Kennedy and the Libertarians think there is more to gain than lose, really. Strict orthodoxy usually takes a backseat to expedience in politics. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rfk-jr-seems-to-be-gaining-steam/992451.md?page=3)