# Rishi Sunak tries to lead the UK **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 24, 2022, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706 "2022-10-24T13:07:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/201 "2022-11-07T18:25:07Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > It turns out that Sir Gavin has been sending bullying and abusive messages to Wendy Morton, the Chief Whip Don’t know much about this Gavin character, but the text messages posted certainly paint him as a spoiled, entitled little man. Just a whining, pathetic little boy, who is acting like a little shit-head. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/202 "2022-11-07T18:53:44Z")
Yeah, tbh “bullying and abusive” isn’t a fair characterisation. Petulant, unpleasant and vindictive is nearer the mark. Or, “like a little shit head” does nicely. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/203 "2022-11-07T19:16:11Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > …It turns out that Sir Gavin has been sending bullying and abusive messages to Wendy Morton, the Chief Whip\*\*. The inciting incident was that Gavin was NFI’d to the Queen’s funeral, an “offense” which he has been slow to forgive… NFI = “Not finally invited”? > [@PatrickLondon](#): > > Anyone who watched _House of Cards_ (the original) might think that was precisely what the Chief Whip is for (but I couldn’t possibly comment). :: Golf clap :: ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/204 "2022-11-07T19:21:47Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > NFI = “Not finally invited”? “Formally,” would be my guess. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/205 "2022-11-07T19:27:13Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Formally,” would be my guess. A little cruder than that, I blush to say ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/206 "2022-11-07T19:28:49Z")
Ah, thanks. Google failed me (or, rather, gave lots of other possible meanings which didn’t seem to fit). ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/207 "2022-11-07T19:30:49Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > A little cruder than that, I blush to say _\_ ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/208 "2022-11-07T19:37:36Z")
“An embattled Stanislaus was today facing calls to resign following what some have termed a “crude and inappropriate” outburst. A close friend of the under fire poster claimed it was simply a misjudged joke between friends while others have called for a full enquiry.” ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/209 "2022-11-07T19:51:06Z")
> **[Rishi Sunak ‘optimistic’ on Channel crossings after talks with Macron](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/07/rishi-sunak-channel-crossings-talks-emmanuel-macron)** > > UK prime minister vows to ‘get a grip’ on small boat crossings but deflects questions on concrete action How to stop people taking to rubber boats to reach the UK? Easy! Pay the French. It was £55m….now how much, I wonder? ---
**Author:** ![UDS1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/e47774/32.png) [@UDS1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS1)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/211 "2022-11-08T06:50:47Z")
If enough Tories rebel, so that the government loses a vote of confidence, a general election will happen, even though most Tories don’t want one. That’s about your best hope. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/212 "2022-11-08T11:52:31Z")
Yeah, the Tories have an 80 seat majority, so if a confidence motion were brought then it would need c.40 Tories to fully rebel by voting against the government, or \>80 to sit on their hands and abstain, or some combination of the two. A confidence vote could happen if a) Sunak declares a particular vote to be a confidence vote (as Liz Truss did with the fracking vote recently) or b) if Labour bring forward a confdience motion on one of the occasions where they can hold debates. (The fracking vote was itself a Labour motion, and a very effective one too). Truss declared the fracking vote a confidence motion as a high-stakes way of forcing her MPs to vote the way she wanted. (If you rebel its curtains for all of us). Sunak is unlikely to need to try anything so drastic in the near future. Labour should only bring a confidence motion if it’s got a really, really good chance of working. The whole point is to either force a general election or failing that to make the Tories look divided, desperate and weak as they scrape through by one or two votes. If they call one and the Tories win at a canter, that of course strengthens them and Sunak as they demonstrate unity. (“While the Leader of the Opposition wastes time trying to divide the country, we are getting on with the job!”). So it’s partly a question of how many rebels there are, and it’s partly a question of how well Labour can judge how many rebels there are. There isn’t a redundancy/retirement package for MPs who lose their seat. Some will have businesses to fall back on, some will be able to use their contacts on both sides to get well-remunerated seats on the boards of big firms, some will make a go of it on the speaker circuit. But for a lot of Tory MPs, particularly new ones, voting for an election is voting for an uncertain and worse-paid future. It’s likely coming anyhow, but who knows what might happen if they hold on as long as they can? So, like in the mid-90s when everyone knew Major’s government was doomed but it dragged out the years until the election was due, we’re stuck with this shower for a while yet. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/213 "2022-11-08T12:19:37Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > But for a lot of Tory MPs, particularly new ones, voting for an election is voting for an uncertain and worse-paid future. It’s likely coming anyhow, but who knows what might happen if they hold on as long as they can? Current polls still suggest that a general election now would be devastating for the Tories, affecting even a lot of previously safe seats. There’s no way in hell that 40-80 Conservatives are going to cut their current tenures short no matter how awful Sunak is. The better option for them is to hope to ride out the storm and hold the election at a time when public opinion has potentially swung back somewhat and/or the Conservative leadership have somehow become competent. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/214 "2022-11-08T12:30:14Z")
Yeah, a detailed analysis would take into account the size of people’s majorities. E.g: If you’ve got a majority of a couple of hundred then your doom is sealed, no matter when the election is. If you’ve got a majority of, I don’t know, 20,000 let’s say then you might be safe in any case. But if you’re defending, say, 5000 then the difference between a 20% swing and a 10% swing might save your neck. (Numbers for illustration, I don’t know what the actual swing required is. But this gives some guidance - an election held today would see the Tories lose 263 seats! Half of that is still a complete rout, but if you’re in the 132 saved by performance improving to only “fucking awful” then you want to hang on for it). [Current Nowcast — Election Maps UK](https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast) ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/215 "2022-11-08T13:45:58Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > There isn’t a redundancy/retirement package for MPs who lose their seat. Yes there is: > **[General election 2019: Losing MPs set to share £2m pot](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50826472)** > > Some 71 former MPs are in line for "loss of office" payments after being sacked by voters. There is also a contributory pension scheme. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/216 "2022-11-08T14:01:31Z")
Oh wow, thank you. I’d have sworn I’d heard the opposite. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/217 "2022-11-08T16:25:10Z")
I think it’s relatively recent. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/218 "2022-11-08T17:27:30Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > …A confidence vote could happen if a) Sunak declares a particular vote to be a confidence vote (as Liz Truss did with the fracking vote recently)… As who did? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/219 "2022-11-08T18:00:53Z")
There’s a song about it: “Lizzie, we hardly knew ye.” ---
**Author:** ![pjd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pjd/32/3009_2.png) [@pjd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjd)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/220 "2022-11-08T18:15:46Z")
She was a strange lady with a pork and cheese fixation - sometime in the early twenty first century, iirc. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706/221 "2022-11-08T19:11:09Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > As who did? Hey, that’s showbusiness for you. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rishi-sunak-tries-to-lead-the-uk/973706.md?page=12)