No early in-person voting, and postal ballots usually a relatively small proportion of votes. Unlikely to have had a decisive effect on turnout or results. The total number of votes to be counted were (roughly) 26000, and 40000.
The storm has only had a serious effect hundreds of miles away - these two constituencies are in the English Midlands.
I think it is possible (and I hope and dream it is true) that the Tories are spent as a political force. It’s one of those weird coincidences that Truss left office a day later than the 100 year anniversary of the last Liberal PM, and almost foreshadows change in a way.
I think Brexit was the last throw of the dice. There wasn’t ever anything there but the lies and dreams to buy them five more years. The demographics have gone. The major chunk of their voters are the boomers who are dying off, and politically even worse, the care home system in the UK strips them of their wealth if they end in those, with some costing 71K a year, needing houses and savings sold off to cover them (the guardian covers the price of that). They’ve eaten the free NHS, got the houses and pensions, and now there’s now a highly visible stripping of next-generational wealth passing on, to voters, who won’t be voting Tory.
Apart from the young are far less Tory, having not got the breaks the boomers got, and aren’t turning right wing as they’re getting older, the faunt is running dry there.
Again from across the pond, so please pardon my ongoing ignorance.
In the USA, many (most?) university students maintain legal residence wherever their parents are. Of course many universities draw heavily from the local environs, but a single riding even in the large USA is not that large a geographical area, such that most students will not have lived in that riding pre-university.
Certainly some US students do re-register in the local area. And given the US’s mostly-fixed election calendar, most elections are held while school is in session.
All of which is a long-winded way of asking what percentage of those students attending university in Uxbridge who were absent over the summer would have been registered to vote there, versus back home where they were (presumably) living over the summer?
IOW, is this explanation for the outcome a “just so story” that falls apart on closer examination? Heck if I know.
If the Tories win the next election, this entire country deserves to be sectioned. Honestly, if enough people aren’t wise to them now, they never will be.
Any possibility that Rishi won’t lead the Tories in the next election–that he will either voluntarily resign or be forced out?
If so who would be the leading Tory candidates?
Fartrage has supposed to have rejoined the party, so the Toad Faced Fuhrer, I suppose. Unless they go for the “Not white so can be racist” candidates of Braverman or Patel.
Never underestimate the Slithy Gove.
But his own seat might be in danger, given this year’s local election results. On present form, it will all come down to which of the present cabinet survive. It won’t be a total clearout, Kim Campbell style, but there may be some surprise ejections and survivals.
Farage was sniffing around the Tory conference, but that’s a long way from getting the nod to be one of their candidates, let alone getting elected, never mind getting enough MP colleagues to nominate him for leadership. After all, his track record in party leaderships isn’t much of a recommendation for pulling the current set of factions together - he’s never really managed a political party, so much as a series of fanclubs he’s managed to fall out with, one after the other.
Poor Kim. I remember watching the election returns that night. Now she’s gone down in history as the worst example of what can happen to a party in power in a Westminster system.
I remember reading during the last year of the Obama presidency as well about how the distinctly unimpressive Republican primary candidates and the inevitably shifting of demographics might spell a permanent end to the Republican party as a nationally relevant force since POC would never dream of switching and young people were too smart to become radicalized.
Gove has definitely put in the hours and has been sniffing the PM’s chair through the last however many Tory leadership contests. It says something about the current Tory party when he’s actually one of the more moderate possibilities. I think his high opinion of himself though would only lead him to throw his hat in the ring if it was likely he’d get to be PM. The next Conservative leader is v unlikely to be that.
My money’s probably on Braverman. She’s been talking the kind of talk on immigration that gets the gammons a lovely shade of cerise. Patel’s probably still too associated with Johnson. As Tory leaders often come from the other two big offices of state, I guess ‘Hunt’ is in with a shot too; a former contender who has somehow positioned himself quite well out of the Truss debacle.
OB
I think the wildcard here with this (apart from foreign bot-based information poisoning) was long term high strength cannabis use. It’s the link I see over here with ex-friends who are now loons (it is not a coincidence that a lot “got into crypto”).
Probably not:
Stuck between a rock and a hard place:
With the one-year anniversary of his premiership due on Wednesday, up to 25 Conservative MPs are prepared to put in letters of no confidence in his leadership following the disastrous byelection losses in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, according to the Sunday Times.
However, many more Tory MPs are resigned to Sunak leading the party into the next election because of the number of leadership changes the party has already seen since 2019.
Theresa May was replaced that year by Boris Johnson. He gave way to Liz Truss in 2022, and Sunak got the job when her tenure ended after 44 days.
j
That, and the fact he needs to be an actual Tory MP first, which he isn’t [yet]. It may be a nightmare we have to face in the future, but not this Parliament.
The Tories are the most resilient political force this country has ever seen, helped in large part by a right wing press who back them no matter what, and a class system where people still seem to vote for ‘their betters’. They’ll have a few years in the wilderness, taking chunks out of each other, but they’ll be back. They always are.
I find it incredible, but then I’ve lived most of my adult life cushioned in lefty liberal constituencies where the local shops stack copies of the Guardian chest deep by the front door. I’m always astonished when I revisit my old home in Sutton Coldfield, where people sign up for lifelong membership of the Tory party as soon as they’re old enough to vote. My relatives included. It’s depressing.
Farage seems to be “showing a bit of leg” in several directions at the moment (but no sign of his being recruited for Strictly - that may be too much like hard work and he probably thinks the BBC wouldn’t pay enough)
Frankly Strictly is probably very on target for him. The BBC pretty much would get him on anything, I’d not be surprised if I was told he was on Balamory ( a scottish BBC childrens TV show),
Popcorn time (Rishi’s people will be so pleased to see his AI initiative pushed off the Mail front page):
It is all kicking off this morning.
So, brief recap of teh last week or so. In response to the current conflict in Israel/Palestine, there have been weekly pro-Palestinian marches calling for ceasefire. Mostly these marches have been peaceful, but there is a disturbing fringe of indeterminate size doing unpleasant and illegal things like openly calling for jihad, anti-semitic chanting etc. It is a bit of a test of our commitment to free speech.
This Saturday, the 11th, was also Armistice Day where we commemorate those who fell in wars. 11am is the specific time for quiet reflection. The march on Saturday was due to start at 2pm, and would not go near the Cenotaph which is the focal point for Armistice commemoration. Further, the ceremony there happens not on the 11th but always on the Sunday closest, in this case yesterday.
Nevertheless, the Home Secretary on Wednesday wrote an inflammatory editorial in the Times in which she labelled these marches as hate marches, said they would threaten the sanctity of the Cenotaph and Remembrance weekend, that they were mobs, expressions of primacy by Islamists, and that the police were operating a double standard, ignoring crimes that they would arrest far-right protestors for. She also demanded that the march be cancelled - interfering in operational matters which is not meant to happen. The head of the Metropolitan police did not choose to cancel the march, stating that he had no lawful grounds to do so.
Very predictably, this riled up those self-same far-right elements who promptly organised a counter-protest to protect the Cenotaph from being defiled by these… well, you get the idea. Astonishingly enough this counter-protest turned violent - as mentioned, the actual march went nowhere near the Cenotaph so the far-right contingent who’d come for a fight and were damn well going to get one charged the police. An unseemly brawl involving injuries to police officers in the vicinity of the Cenotaph was the pretty much inevitable result of the Home Secretary’s witless intervention.
Following the article, there was a lot of speculation about whther she would be sacked, more so when it turned out that the PM’s office had seen the article and sent back amendments, which were ignored. Obviously, after a day of riot and tumult, that speculation only grew stronger.
This was essentially a test of Sunak’s strength. Braverman was only Home Secretary because he did a deal with her in the leadership election - give me your support, I give you your old job back. If he didn’t sack her it would be an admission that he couldn’t stand on his own two feet.
He sacked her this morning.
Rishi Sunak sacks Suella Braverman as home secretary - BBC News
But that’s not the funny bit!
The funny bit is that Sunak now has to rearrange his Cabinet. He made the reasonably sensible move of shifting the current Foreign Secretary to Home, but of course that opens up a gap for Foreign Secretary. As he looks out over the serried ranks of the Parliamentary Conservative PArty, who can he find of sufficient stature, wisdom, and reliability to fill this great office of state?
No one. No current Tory MP or Lord would fit the bill it seems. He had to go back to the giants of yesteryear to find someone fit for the role. A man whose foreign policy experience is unparalleled, whose achievements are innumerable, whose legacy of shrewd diplomacy we enjoy today. It’s…David Cameron!
Live reaction of seasoned journos here: