Biden has the opportunity to do the funniest thing!
Never mind.
Good idea. Nothing bad has ever happened to the UK on July 4th.
So, expect 6 weeks of concentrated shit slinging from the right wing uk press.
Pretty much all of Starmer’s actions as Leader of the Opposition can be explained by the heuristic “please don’t do to me what you do to the last guy, I’m tolerable” often to the extent of pissing off supporters and potential voters, so it is going to be interesting to see if it works.
FWIW I think there will be some reflexive shit slinging, but the Tories are so spent, and Starmer is so obsessively not-Corbyn, that it won’t amount to much.
Officially announced now.
He’s going big on security, both national and economic. But his demeanour is not convincing and if he doesn’t believe it, why should I?
To be fair, he does have two big hurdles here. A protester is blaring music, specifically the pop anthem Things Can Only Get Better used by Blair in 1997, loud enough to threaten to drown him out, and it is pissing down so hard he is now soaked through.
The first is unfortunate. But the second looks very bad from a guy who just had a go at Labour for not having a plan, he can’t even organise himself an umbrella.
Rishi is squishy?
Things can only get wetter.
Starmer now on TV. Inside in the dry and quiet. It’s not a huge thing, but that’s kind of the point. It’s easy to get right.
Chapeau
To tell you the truth, I was suspecting they’d aim for June 24th as something to stir up the memories of the idiots who voted for Brexit again.
This is funny (from a couple of hours ago):
LETTERS of no confidence were reportedly being sent in against the Prime Minister before he announced a summer General Election.
Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reported that a Tory rebel source said: “Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement.”
There have been previous reports the Prime Minister has been the subject of no confidence letters during his tenure but they have never reached the level sufficient to trigger a vote.
In short, it’s possible that the number of his own MPs expressing no confidence in Rishi was approaching the trigger point for leadership election, thus forcing his hand in naming a date for a general election. Referring to the mounting pile of no confidence letters, the headline in a (rabidly Tory) Daily Express online article reads:
Rishi Sunak facing hammer blow as MPs ‘submit letter of no confidence’
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And now we await the television extravaganzas that are the Party Political Broadcast…
And will the campaign be all staged rallies of the faithful and niche social media marketing, or will there be some genuine interaction with real live voters?
UK inflation rate was announced at 2.3% this morning. First quarter growth (calendar year) was the best it’s been for two years, although only 0.6%. Employment figures have been pretty good for several months. Interest rates are predicted to go down, although before Sunak’s announcement, the majority of pundits were predicting the rate cuts would be in August rather than June. Government debt’s not in a good state, but lower inflation, a good economy and lower interest rates will support optimistic forecasts. Sunak’s government got the law for the Rwanda asylum plan passed, and there’s been news it’s been having an effect. A humorous anecdote from a couple of weeks ago was that UK asylum seekers were moving to Ireland, and Ireland wanted to send them back. The British government’s response was to request they be sent to France. I’ve not heard any recent news about NHS waiting lists, but there have been some announcements about increasing the domestic healthcare workforce.
Basically, I think Sunak is predicting this is about as good as it’s going to get. He can argue he’s done a good job and achieved his 5 Points Plan and hope that there’s a summer uplift in national spirit that will carry him through. A bit of Labour scandal such as Angela Rayner being proved to have lied about her taxes could also help the Tories out.
Having said that, the Conservative Party has been in government for 14 years. There’s lots of partisanship and rhetoric about how things are now versus May 2010, but I think the general sentiment is that the nation’s worse off. I think if someone dug into the statistics, that would probably prove true. There’s also a lot of baggage from the failures of previous prime ministers of the current government. My prediction is that however well Sunak has done over the past few months, the British electorate is ready to give the other party a chance to take charge.
the u k prime minister calls for elections on july 4th!
interesting date choice there. i know this is not a big celebration in the uk, with a day off and fireworks… but still, interesting choice.
A UK election has been called for July 4. Here’s what to know | AP News
I take it Labour is expected to win?
Isn’t the question more like “will Tories do well enough to be the official opposition”?
Trouble is, if history is anything to go by, when it comes to an actual election the Tories tend to do better than expected and Labour worse than polls suggest. There’s a lot of closet Tories out there who aren’t willing to admit it except in the secrecy of the ballot. Now, whether Reform is a big enough threat to siphon off those secret Tories, I don’t know. And it remains to be seen whether Labour’s showing is more like 1997 than 1992. I would think somewhere between the two - there isn’t the fervour around Starmer that there was for Blair, but it’s still Labour’s election to lose.
OB
The article doesn’t address the fact that the date is smack in the middle of Euro 2024 and it IS a factor.
If England (or Scotland) are doing well there will be a sense of optimism in the country. Regardless there will be a lot of flag waving and patriotism in those weeks. And the tabloids will be more invested in the football than they will be in the election.
However Starmer is an actual football fan whereas I fully expect Sunak to pose awkwardly with England and Scotland flags and look completely out of his depth when someone asks him about the football.
Have started a General Election thread: UK General Election - July 4th 2024