# Road to GOP Brokered Convention 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153 "2016-03-06T21:15:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/61 "2016-03-08T09:31:01Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Most sources consider Tel Aviv the capital, and most countries conform to the United Nations view that Jerusalem should be a special international protectorate. Where is the US embassy in Israel located? More to the point, where is the Knesset? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/62 "2016-03-08T14:31:17Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > No Rubio or Trump voter I know would pick Clinton over Cruz. How many do you know? > [@](#): > > If someone like Jim Webb ran as an independent, I think he could peel off a lot of votes from both Democrats and Republicans. I could also see someone like Rick Perry trying to start up a ‘Constitution Party’, or a ‘Federalist Party’ or something like that, with a strong message about states’ rights, border security, and a scaled down Washington. If the early primaries proved anything at all, it’s that neither Jim Webb nor Rick Perry have any ability to gain anyone’s trust. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/63 "2016-03-08T15:37:49Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Rubio WAS the establishment candidate. I don’t think he is any more. He kind of showed his ass in the debates going after Trump by trading juvenile insults. A lot of Republicans I’ve been reading have said, “Well, Rubio took one for the team. Someone had to go after Trump like that and we’re glad he did - but watching him do it, there’s no way he’s Presidential material.” > > Rubio has had a lot of trouble trying to build a sense of gravitas and outgrow his boyish looks. His public spat with Trump undid all that. > > On the other hand, Cruz came out looking smarter and calmer, and Kasich’s stock also went up because he looked like the grownup in the room. Probably too little too late for Kasich (who would be my choice out of the bunch), but Cruz probably benefited the most from the circus of the last week. I think this is pretty much on target. And apparently the anti-Trump forces [are now hoping to stop Trump just three dozen delegates short of 1237](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/seeing-trump-as-vulnerable-gop-elites-now-eye-a-contested-convention/2016/03/07/976d2c62-e487-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_stoptrump-new-716pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory): > [@](#): > > The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the presidential nomination. > > Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required — forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July. If they think that’s going to suffice, they must be crazy. If Trump got to 1200 and was denied the nomination, it would be war. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/64 "2016-03-08T16:02:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It may destroy the party but it still has to be done. You can’t hand the nomination to a guy who got only a third of the popular vote and fell short of a majority of delegates. When that happens the only correct approach is to find someone broadly acceptable to most of the party. There is no such person. If Trump comes in with a plurality of delegates, a good third of the GOP electorate will find no other candidate acceptable, and stay home (if he doesn’t launch an independent bid) or vote for him anyway (if he does). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/65 "2016-03-08T16:09:05Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I’m going to stick with what I said last fall, as quoted in the OP. Trump has a clear path to a first ballot majority. [It does look that way](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/seeing-trump-as-vulnerable-gop-elites-now-eye-a-contested-convention/2016/03/07/976d2c62-e487-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html): > [@](#): > > The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the presidential nomination. > Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required – forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July… The [noparse]TL:DR[/noparse] version: Even if _all_ the stars line up _perfectly_ against him, Trump gets 97% of the way to an outright majority. The NeverTrumpkins have _no_ margin for error. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/66 "2016-03-08T16:10:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then what do you think happens to the conservative movement? There are still more self identified conservatives in this country than liberals. So there’s going to be a mainstream party that represents them. There could be two or three such parties until they finally coalesce. The same problems that are afflicting the GOP now would delay that coalescence (though the electoral system would drive it toward happening eventually). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/67 "2016-03-08T16:14:16Z")
> [@](#): > > Due to the growing U.S. Hispanic population, now pegged at 17.4 percent, it has been re-calculated by Latino Decisions, a leading Latino political opinion research firm, that for a Republican to be elected president he or she must win at least _47 percent_ of the national Hispanic vote. I am amused by the thought that this number will start popping up all over the place in politics much like pi and e pop up all over the place in mathematics. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/68 "2016-03-08T17:10:01Z")
I just don’t see ANY way the Republicans can allow Donald Trump to be their nominee. Can you imagine? The Republican nominee for President would be actively and vociferously opposed by half of the Republicans in the house and Senate, pretty much all previous Republican candidates, and two thirds of the party. It would be like if some old Democratic Klansman somehow came out of the woodwork and picked up enough votes in a many-candidate primary season to come out on top. Even if he won mathematically, there’s no way the Democrats could ever allow such a person to be the face of their party. If you’re worried about the Republicans breaking up at a contested convention, imagine what it will be like if Trump actually wins. Those of you who think the Republicans will just all coalesce around him… I don’t think so. Not all of them, anyway. There are too many who have made definitive and rather extreme statements about him that they really can’t walk back - unless somehow a new Trump emerges who starts acting presidential and seems to know what he’s talking about, but I don’t think Trump has it in him to do that. George Will hinted on Sunday that the Republicans are preparing a massive PR push against Trump, to start very soon. Apparently a number of Senators and Congressmen have agreed to take part in anti-Trump ads. If they’re half as harsh as what Mitt Romney said, there’s no way those people will be able to easily go back to supporting Trump. And movers and shakers in the movement like Will, the staff of National Review, the people at Commentary Magazine and other conservative outlets will be in a total uproar if Trump is the nominee. The best hope for Republicans is to stop him before or at the convention. Any result other than beating him soundly in the delegate count is going to be bad, but the worst situation of all is to allow Trump to be the face of the Republican party going against Hillary. Trump is the left’s caricature of a Republican. He’s Steven Colbert in character. If the Republicans back him and make excuses for him, it will validate every negative stereotype of the right. If they were actually trying to inject a false flag candidate who intentionally made Republicans look as bad as possible, they could hardly do better than Donald Trump. For that reason, if Trump becomes the Republican nominee, I could see the party break up, and the Republicans would leave Trump alone with a rump of the old party consisting of his nativist/protectionist yahoo supporters. I know, it’s a two party system. What are you going to do? Don’t blame me: -I- voted for Kodos. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/69 "2016-03-08T17:17:41Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > No Rubio or Trump voter I know would pick Clinton over Cruz. The main reason Rubio voters don’t like Cruz is simply because they don’t think he can beat Hillary. Kasich voters… maybe. But I think most of his would still go to Cruz over Clinton. > > If Trump is nominated, on the other hand… There are a LOT of Republicans who would vote for Clinton over Trump if you put a gun to their head and forced them to choose, but most of those would rather just stay home and weep. > > But that’s not going to happen, because I predict that if Trump does get the nomination, there will be a 3rd party run by someone more in the mainstream. > > If someone like Jim Webb ran as an independent, I think he could peel off a lot of votes from both Democrats and Republicans. I could also see someone like Rick Perry trying to start up a ‘Constitution Party’, or a ‘Federalist Party’ or something like that, with a strong message about states’ rights, border security, and a scaled down Washington. > > That would probably just help Democrats, as it would give Republicans who might hold their nose and vote for Trump a ‘safe’ out, and further split the right. It would also give Trump a perfect excuse for losing, a grudge against the GOP establishment and a good reason to go third party if he loses the nomination next time. If Trump ends up with the nomination any effort to sabotage him from the GOP just guarantees he comes back to hurt them again. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/70 "2016-03-08T17:29:13Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > It would also give Trump a perfect excuse for losing, a grudge against the GOP establishment and a good reason to go third party if he loses the nomination next time. If Trump ends up with the nomination any effort to sabotage him from the GOP just guarantees he comes back to hurt them again. And if they DO allow him to become the nominee, he will tar the Republican brand for a long, long time. So there are no good outcomes here unless he’s beaten before or at the convention. And of course, if he somehow won the general election (not inconceivable), the U.S. will have an actual fascist strongman-wannabe as their President. Instead of hoping he becomes the nominee, Democrats should be worrying that he might be it, because he will attack Hillary viciously, and he may pull enough blue-collar voters from the Democrats to actually win the election. And that would be a disaster for America. For that matter, just having him in the Presidential election against Hillary will make America look bad. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/71 "2016-03-08T17:48:17Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > It would also give Trump a perfect excuse for losing, a grudge against the GOP establishment and a good reason to go third party if he loses the nomination next time. If Trump ends up with the nomination any effort to sabotage him from the GOP just guarantees he comes back to hurt them again. Trump will turn seventy before this year’s convention; you figure he’d come back for another try at the White House at age seventy-four? When the other candidates will know what happens if they don’t start coming after the guy hard at the start? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/72 "2016-03-08T18:07:02Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Trump will turn seventy before this year’s convention; you figure he’d come back for another try at the White House at age seventy-four? When the other candidates will know what happens if they don’t start coming after the guy hard at the start? If he has a grudge? you bet. And it wouldn’t be a try at the white house, it would be a revenge run against the GOP. He wouldn’t need to win, just get enough support that his third party run leads to a crushing GOP loss. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/73 "2016-03-08T18:20:08Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > I am amused by the thought that this number will start popping up all over the place in politics much like pi and e pop up all over the place in mathematics. 😃 What do you mean, _start_? I think we all remember the popularity of ‘47 percent’ in the last Presidential election. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/74 "2016-03-08T18:26:45Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Those of you who think the Republicans will just all coalesce around him… I don’t think so. Not all of them, anyway. There are too many who have made definitive and rather extreme statements about him that they really can’t walk back - unless somehow a new Trump emerges who starts acting presidential and seems to know what he’s talking about, but I don’t think Trump has it in him to do that. You mean like Rubio’s endorsement of #NeverTrump? Apparently that meant that Rubio wouldn’t vote for him in the primaries, IOW, it didn’t mean jack shit. Maybe some politician-emeritus types like Romney, who no longer have to worry about how actual Republican voters might vote in a primary, have been willing to say some pretty harsh things. But let’s hear some names of Republicans _who plan to go before the voters again_, who’ve said these unwalkbackable things. The party may not be enthusiastic about Trump, but with scant exceptions, if he wins the nomination, they’ll line up behind him, or keep their feelings to themselves. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/75 "2016-03-08T18:31:22Z")
At any rate, the GOP isn’t going to break up over Trump if he’s nominated. They’ll lose the Presidential election again, lose their Senate majority, but probably still have a slim House majority. And their House majority will do to Hillary what they’ve been doing to Obama for six years: saying NO to everything. And the party will forget about Trump the way they forgot about Dubya, and be united in their opposition to the Evil Witch Hillary. The only thing that might split the party is if Trump gets way more delegates than anyone else, but the party nominates someone else anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/76 "2016-03-08T18:37:05Z")
Republican Senator Ben Sasse: > [@](#): > > “I cannot support Donald Trump … My current answer for who I would support in a hypothetical matchup between Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton is: neither of them. I sincerely hope we select one of the other GOP candidates, but if Donald Trump ends up as the GOP nominee, conservatives will need to find a third option.” [Report: McConnell preps senators to run against Trump](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/271044-mcconnell-preps-senators-to-run-against-trump) > [@](#): > > Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is advising vulnerable Republican senators to break with Donald Trump if he wins the GOP nomination, according to a bombshell New York Times report Saturday. > > McConnell has reportedly advised Republicans that they can run ads against Trump to create separation from the polarizing GOP frontrunner if they believe it can help their reelection efforts. I think what you’re missing is that the House and Senate Republicans are more worried that supporting Trump would torpedo their own elections. They’d rather see Hillary win with them in control of the House and Senate than see Donald Trump win but the Senate turn over to the Democrats. So that’s ‘vulnerable’ senators who will peel off, and Conservative Senators will peel off. That might leave a handful of Senators in blue-collar states that might stick with him. Maybe. I don’t think some of you understand the depth of hatred and fear of Donald Trump that’s currently going through the GOP establishment. He’s about the worst thing that could have possibly happened to Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/77 "2016-03-08T23:29:30Z")
I see that the “toitle” **is** praying indeed. Too late. Too late guys. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/78 "2016-03-09T00:45:42Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I don’t think some of you understand the depth of hatred and fear of Donald Trump that’s currently going through the GOP establishment. Then you haven’t been listening to the cheers and popping of champagne corks and sheer unadulterated glee of the non-conservative community. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/79 "2016-03-09T01:36:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > At any rate, the GOP isn’t going to break up over Trump if he’s nominated. They’ll lose the Presidential election again, lose their Senate majority, but probably still have a slim House majority. And their House majority will do to Hillary what they’ve been doing to Obama for six years: saying NO to everything. **And the party will forget about Trump the way they forgot about Dubya, and be united in their opposition to the Evil Witch Hillary.** > > The only thing that might split the party is if Trump gets way more delegates than anyone else, but the party nominates someone else anyway. Bolding mine. Overall I agree. But ref the bolded part … If anybody thinks the angry rejectionist wing of the Right is going to somehow disappear after Trump loses either the nomination or the general they’re not paying attention. There will be a groundswell of angry rejectionist Congressmen running in 2018. And there will be a fresh standard-bearer for them in 2020. It might still be Trump. Or it might be Arpaio. Or somebody I’ve never heard of. But he’ll be there. This problem goes away when the white working class feels economically safe and successful. And not before. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/80 "2016-03-09T02:27:07Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > This problem goes away when the white working class feels economically safe and successful. And not before. The white working class will literally start dying off into an insignificant minority before that happens. A solution other than mere demagoguery will have to be found. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=5)