# Road to GOP Brokered Convention 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153 "2016-03-06T21:15:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/81 "2016-03-09T02:42:00Z")
Why, are all white people going to be rich professionals in 20 years? The white working class will always be a pretty big part of the electorate, and if they start voting as monolithically as African-Americans, which is also a trend they are headed towards, it’ll be a long century for Democrats, with a lot of headaches for Republicans too. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/82 "2016-03-09T03:04:49Z")
The solution is obviously to get them back into conventional politics. And away from simple anger-based demagoguery. Some countries have done that by having a demagogue in power for awhile and thereby deliver the object lesson that that doesn’t work any better; the elites can co-opt them too. Or the authoritarian turns on his supporters and they discover they don’t like living in a police state. Some countries have taken a more mature approach to bringing otherwise decent, albeit cruelly disappointed and misled, citizens back to civilization. The hard part IMO is going to be shutting down the Fox/Limbaugh/etc. hate machine. Somebody paid good money to get that show off the ground. After 15 years it’s probably pretty darn profitable right now on its own. That gravy train will not be derailed without a fight. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/83 "2016-03-09T03:17:33Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The solution is obviously to get them back into conventional politics. And away from simple anger-based demagoguery. As opposed to minority voters? Sorry, but white working class voters are becoming minority voters, and acting like it. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/84 "2016-03-09T03:27:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Why, are all white people going to be rich professionals in 20 years? The white working class will always be a pretty big part of the electorate, and if they start voting as monolithically as African-Americans, which is also a trend they are headed towards, it’ll be a long century for Democrats, with a lot of headaches for Republicans too. Good grief. The white working class is dying off because the manufacturing jobs that sustained them and allowed many to rise into the working class are dying off. It’s not clear what will replace those jobs - one absolutely hopes that something will - but whoever holds those jobs or lack of them will be a different grouping in almost every way other than income and skin color. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/85 "2016-03-09T14:31:56Z")
The white working class consists of a lot more than manufacturing jobs, but as you point out, because they are shrinking, they are taking on the activist and political strategies of minority groups. As distasteful as I find the political behavior of this demographic, it’s no different from the political behavior of other working class demographics. Now they are just joining the grievance party. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/86 "2016-03-09T14:39:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The white working class consists of a lot more than manufacturing jobs, but as you point out, because they are shrinking, they are taking on the activist and political strategies of minority groups. As distasteful as I find the political behavior of this demographic, it’s no different from the political behavior of other working class demographics. Now they are just joining the grievance party. Seems to me that they are joining the Luddite party instead. While some historians do think that they had a point, the reality is that they were barking up the wrong tree, the best thing to do then is similar to what is needed now. Not to fight against change, but to fight for a more robust safety net that does keep into account the people and communities affected by that change. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/87 "2016-03-09T14:42:06Z")
Well, since unlike other minority groups they are on their way down rather than up, a social safety net isn’t exactly what they are aspiring to. What they’d appreciate is not having to compete with cheap labor. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/88 "2016-03-09T14:53:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, since unlike other minority groups they are on their way down rather than up, a social safety net isn’t exactly what they are aspiring to. What they’d appreciate is not having to compete with cheap labor. That is why the point was made about barking up the wrong tree. > **[The Economics of Immigration: Who Wins, Who Loses and Why | TIME.com](https://business.time.com/2013/01/30/the-economics-of-immigration-who-wins-who-loses-and-why/)** > > Washington’s focus has shifted to immigration reform this week as a bipartisan group of Senators put forward a comprehensive plan on Monday and President Obama followed with a proposal of his own yesterday. > [@](#): > > Does immigration reduce wages for native-born Americans? > > It might seem like a no-brainer that increased immigration would reduce the wages of native-born Americans. A simple supply and demand model would tell you that more workers means lower wages. But the story is actually more complicated than that. According to a 2010 survey of the economic literature on the subject, the Brookings Institute concluded that, “The most recent academic research suggests that, on average, immigrants raise the overall standard of living of American workers by boosting wages and lowering prices.” > > How can it be that more workers competing over the same jobs can lead to higher wages? The reason is that it’s not actually more workers competing over the same jobs. Immigration actually changes what jobs employers need to fill. For one, an influx of cheap labor can make certain businesses like farming or restaurants feasible. (Absent cheap labor, these firms simply could not compete with foreign rivals.) Second, immigrants not only supply labor, but demand it, too. And a larger domestic population through immigration creates more potential customers for business, as well. And as usual it is mostly the sorry right wing sources of information that only repeat the fear that misguides many and never reports about what it should be done in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/89 "2016-03-09T15:11:13Z")
However, as has been pointed out, it does reduce wages and increase unemployment at the lowest end of the scale. Plus the importation of cheap labor is only one side of the issue, global competition is the other side. Trump’s appeal is based on the fact that he addresses all of the issues that the white working class is angry about, whereas someone like Sanders only addresses a small part of the problem. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/90 "2016-03-09T15:33:57Z")
Back to the brokered convention subject: Given Trump’s win in Michigan, is it even a realistic possibility anymore? Before, there was some narrow chance of stopping him short of 50.1% of the delegates, but that was based on Kasich winning there, among other things. I’ll say Rubio and Kasich stay in until their home states dump them next Tuesday, Cruz stays in for the duration because he’s a prick, but it’s settled. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/91 "2016-03-09T15:37:08Z")
Trump currently is down over 100 delegates vs. his opponents. He has to actually do a lot better than he’s doing now to win a majority. Plus Cruz in turn is only 100 or so down to Trump. If Cruz continues to surge he can overtake Trump pretty easily. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/92 "2016-03-09T16:11:31Z")
And the pattern held again that Trump did much better in open primaries than closed. I believe the majority of states coming up have closed primaries, so that should help Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/93 "2016-03-09T16:22:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Trump currently is down over 100 delegates vs. his opponents. He has to actually do a lot better than he’s doing now to win a majority. Plus Cruz in turn is only 100 or so down to Trump. If Cruz continues to surge he can overtake Trump pretty easily. Trump just has to do a little better. The winner take all states will tell the tale. Looks like Rubio and Kasich are sticking it out til the 18th so Cruz should be well blocked from any big wins there. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/94 "2016-03-09T16:31:45Z")
Looks like Trump will get Florida’s delegates but he’ll probably get shut out in Ohio. So call it a wash. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/95 "2016-03-09T16:40:17Z")
Ohio is a toss up, wouldn’t go with “probably”. And even if Trump loses to Kasich, it’s hardly a wash. Cruz will be shut out as well and the delgates go to way behind Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/96 "2016-03-09T17:02:30Z")
ETA: shoulda refreshed. This makes more sense as post #86 than it does as #96. IOW, replying to **adaher** ’s & **Exapno** ’s back and forth on racial grievances. Agree the racial aspects will change. But nobody here is proposing anything to change the economic realities on either side of the racial divide. IMO an advanced established democracy is not going to function effectively long term when the economics of the country simply don’t work for a sizeable fraction of the populace. One could argue (and this one has) that right now racial animus between low-status whites and low-status non-whites is a stronger force pushing them apart than their shared economic low status is a common force pulling them together. In 50 years when most economically low-status folks are a fairly uniform shade of mocha, there won’t be the ability of the Rs & the Ds to each chose one side of the racial divide and thereby split the low-status vote. As such, we can expect the economic low-status folks to come together into a much more coherent whole over time. If they then embrace authoritarianism we’re all going for quite a ride. That sounds to me like a problem worth fixing for our sake, not to mention for theirs. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/97 "2016-03-09T17:24:32Z")
[Who Are Trump’s Supporters?](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/09/09/who_are_trumps_supporters.html) > [@](#): > > In terms of demographics, Trump’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Republican. Slightly over half are women. About half are between 45 and 64 years of age, with another 34 percent over 65 years old and less than 2 percent younger than 30. One half of his voters have a high school education or less, compared to 19 percent with a college or post-graduate degree. Slightly over a third of his supporters earn less than $50,000 per year, while 11 percent earn over $100,000 per year. Definitely not country club Republicans, but not terribly unusual either. If 85% of one’s supporters are 45 or over, the long-term prospects of that coalition are negligible. More important as a takeaway is that over half his supporters earn $50-100,000 a year. That is not the lowest income bracket. It’s median or slightly above. None of what adaher says is true. They are not competing for the lowest jobs with the least wages. They are not being outcompeted by poor or illegal immigrants. They are not systematically being discriminated against. They are not being imprisoned in disproportionate numbers (except maybe for meth). They are also not looking for the government to do its job and provide a fair platform for all Americans. They oppose the government functioning in general and in particular hate that the government might dare to smooth the paths of others (i.e. Others). They do want somebody to work magic and turn back the clock to a fantasy time when their future seemed better (even though it manifestly wasn’t if today is that future’s outcome) and like all magic they want it right now rather than with the slow progression of real-world economics or politics. They are not comparable with minority needs or demands or political strategies in any way, shape, or form. Start with a true understanding of the general trend of Trump supporters and you see a classic body of supporters for a demagogue. In some ways we’re lucky that it took the shape of a clown like Trump and not an actual fascist. It also makes the prospect of a progressive movement of slower but possible structural changes an achievable goal as the most dogged antagonists die off. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/98 "2016-03-09T17:58:51Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Rubio was only briefly the Establishment candidate, and only by default after El Jebe got schlonged by Trump and the other options did even less. Yeah, right now I think the establishment candidate is “Give up and wait for 2020”. The primary goal of the establishment at this point is to minimize damage to the party brand. This means not having the convention turn into Wrestle mania, and not having a buffoon representing the party in November. So despite their loathing of Cruz, he may be their best bet. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/99 "2016-03-09T18:01:07Z")
I have been looking for a recent two-man GOP [poll](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16rep.htm)and this one is interesting: Trump loses 54-41 to Cruz and 51-45 to Rubio which suggests that Trump will indeed weaken as the race consolidates. Rubio’s position in Florida is looking pretty hopeless so he may drop out after March 15. Kasich has a better chance of winning Ohio but few prospects afterwards so a two-man race probably won’t take too long. The question is how big Trump’s lead is at that point and whether he still loses to Cruz in the bluish states which tend to have winner-take-all primaries. It also matters whether the GOP establishment including Kasich and Rubio backs Cruz forcefully if he becomes the last man against Trump. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/100 "2016-03-09T18:09:02Z")
I kinda miss the kiddie table debates … > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Yeah, right now I think the establishment candidate is “Give up and wait for 2020”. With a side order of “Meanwhile, Hillary will be annoying but we can work with her”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=6)