# Road to GOP Brokered Convention 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 6, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153 "2016-03-06T21:15:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/121 "2016-03-16T14:02:18Z")
John Boehner supports Paul Ryan for President [if there is a contested convention](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/boehner-endorses-paul-ryan-for-president-220855#ixzz434fykpF3): > [@](#): > > Former Speaker John Boehner said Paul Ryan should be the Republican nominee for president if the party fails to choose a candidate on the first ballot. > > “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above,” Boehner said at the Futures Industry Association conference here. “They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.” ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/122 "2016-03-16T14:28:45Z")
Let me posit an alternative: Trump does a deal. He gets to be Vice President in return for not causing a fuss. It’s simultaneously a non-job and the best job in the world. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/123 "2016-03-16T14:43:17Z")
Tump would never agree to that. He’s already “predicting” riots if he doesn’t get the nomination. I think the Republican Establishment has been running scared of a Trump third party candidacy all along. I think at this point, they’d be better off booting Trump and throwing their support behind Kasich, and let the chips fall where they may. They lose this election, but this election is already lost. They make it clear that Trump’s behavior is not acceptable and when Trump loses (as a third party, he’s toast) it takes the wind out of the sails of this rebellion. Next time they run a genuine moderate and start trying to win back the Clinton Republicans. Yeah, it will hurt, but they are living in Hurt World right now and it’s their own damn fault. They can’t win the presidency without the moderate Republicans (neither can the Dems, usually,) and they need to stop chasing the lunatic fringe. Won’t happen, of course. Modern Republicans are all about the short term. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/124 "2016-03-16T14:50:13Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Let me posit an alternative: Trump does a deal. He gets to be Vice President in return for not causing a fuss. It’s simultaneously a non-job and the best job in the world. Not for someone driven solely by ego. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/125 "2016-03-16T15:05:53Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > I can imagine your frustration. It must be difficult indeed trying to locate Republicans in need of a haircut, a bath and a job. 😉 [Here you go](http://www.tbo.com/storyimage/TB/20151214/ARTICLE/151219589/AR/0/AR-151219589.jpg). Besides, I thought the whole deal with Trump supporters was that they needed jobs. Maybe you should listen to what they’re saying. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/126 "2016-03-16T15:11:45Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > I can imagine your frustration. It must be difficult indeed trying to locate Republicans in need of a haircut, a bath and a job. 😉 Oh, no, you can find plenty of those at any Trump rally. (Assuming those even count as Republicans.) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/127 "2016-03-16T15:13:12Z")
Just look for the old pickup trucks with Confederate flag decals. ---
**Author:** ![Peanut\_Gallery](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/838e76/32.png) [@Peanut\_Gallery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peanut_Gallery)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/128 "2016-03-16T15:25:26Z")
Allow me to be the contrarian. **I think the reports of the death of the Republican party have been highly exaggerated.** My argument in a word: “Hillary”. Everyone knows a third party run hands the election to Hillary. So I predict they will all line up and kiss ass like they are supposed to. There will be some grousing at the convention, maybe even speeches given on the main stage against Trump. But Trump got the votes, and Trump will be the nominee. By November, we will see Cruz, Rubio, Boehner, Ryan, name-your-Republican … all line up to encourage the party to vote for Trump over Hillary. The Never-Trump movement is still just a subset of the the Never-Hillary movement. The general election will be closer than the SDMB today can fathom, quite possibly a Trump victory. Even if Trump loses, I predict he gets 47%+ of the popular vote. The same backward half of the country that voted to re-elect GWB, and voted for McCain and Romney. The Senate and House will remain R. If Trump loses, they go through the same post-mortem soul searching they did last time, learn nothing (again), come back in 2020 and hold a similarly ugly circus (maybe even _uglier_, though it is hard to imagine) to pick a nominee, and then they all line up to kiss ass again, because … Hillary. You guys continue to give America too much credit. I would \*love \*to be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/129 "2016-03-16T16:36:33Z")
> [@Peanut\_Gallery](#): > > You guys continue to give America too much credit. I would \*love \*to be wrong. Like H.L. Mencken said, nobody ever went broke underestimating the American public. I only hope and pray that \> 50% of the voting population is non-moron. I have to wonder if anyone in Trump’s campaign has any political acumen. Has he established any relationships with state party leaders? Does he have the chops to swing all the back-room deals that will be going on if the convention goes to a second ballot? I somehow doubt it…if he doesn’t go into the convention with the delegates he needs, he’ll get steamrolled on the 2nd ballot. This may be where the Forgotten Man, the Most Irrelevant Man in America, steps up and does his job: Reince Preibus. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/130 "2016-03-16T16:52:21Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Curly Haugland, a Republican National Committee rules member, on Wednesday said the political parties choose their respective presidential nominees, [not the primary voters or caucuses goers](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/16/we-choose-the-nominee-not-the-voters-senior-gop-official.html):I can’t wait for the GOP convention. Chaos outside, chaos inside. His take is more than a little oversimplified. On the first ballot, many of the delegates are determined by popular vote, depending on the state’s rules. After that, if necessary, everyone’s free to vote for Rin Tin Tin if they want. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/131 "2016-03-16T17:35:14Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > The optimal scenario for Cruz may be a Rubio loss in Florida which knocks him out instantly and a Kasich win in Ohio along with poor performances elsewhere which knock him out very soon after March 15. > [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Lantern wins the Cassandra award for March 15! So far, so good, but the one problem is that there are no “poor performances elsewhere which knock [Kasich] out very soon after March 15.” There isn’t that much going on between now and New York on April 19, and the only primary in that interval where there might be high expectations for Kasich would be Wisconsin on April 5. And I doubt that a mediocre result there would be enough to get him to drop out. My guess is that he’ll fold after a poor result in either (a) New York on April 19, or (b) the ‘Northeast Corridor primary’ on April 26 (MD, DE, PA, CT, RI). (Of course, if he does well in one or both, he’s in the race for the duration.) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/132 "2016-03-16T17:47:10Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > His take is more than a little oversimplified. On the first ballot, many of the delegates are determined by popular vote, depending on the state’s rules. After that, if necessary, everyone’s free to vote for Rin Tin Tin if they want. He’s on the rules committee. The rules are decided before the first vote. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/133 "2016-03-16T17:49:44Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > So far, so good, but the one problem is that there are no “poor performances elsewhere which knock [Kasich] out very soon after March 15.” > > There isn’t that much going on between now and New York on April 19, and the only primary in that interval where there might be high expectations for Kasich would be Wisconsin on April 5. And I doubt that a mediocre result there would be enough to get him to drop out. My guess is that he’ll fold after a poor result in either (a) New York on April 19, or (b) the ‘Northeast Corridor primary’ on April 26 (MD, DE, PA, CT, RI). (Of course, if he does well in one or both, he’s in the race for the duration.) Perhaps the only upshot of yesterday’s results is that it gave Kasich some cards to play at the convention. Whether or not he continues to campaign between now and the convention is really irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/134 "2016-03-16T23:48:09Z")
John Boehner did a first: he endorsed a candidate for President who isn’t even running: Paul Ryan. I love JOhn Kasich, but I would cheer a Ryan nomination. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/135 "2016-03-17T00:41:54Z")
Boehner’s not the first establishment guy to say that. It’s pretty clear what the establishment’s chosen path is, at least as of today. So Trump’s goal is to short-circuit any gamesmanship by winning enough delegates (and having enough angry protesters on standby) that the establishment is pretty well checkmated before the convention begins. ---
**Author:** ![Enlightening\_Meditation](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecc23a/32.png) [@Enlightening\_Meditation](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enlightening_Meditation)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/136 "2016-03-27T19:19:43Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > This thread is about the odds, prospects and strategies of a GOP brokered or contested convention, where no candidate wins during the first ballot. Also establishment maneuvering and machinations. > > Trump and Cruz are unacceptable Presidential candidates for the GOP establishment. Trump is ideologically unreliable when he is not heretical. Cruz is difficult to work with. Some members of the establishment might feel that a catastrophically failed Presidency would be worse than a lost Presidential election. Jimmy Carter, who appointed Paul Volcker thereby curbing inflation and kept the Iranian hostages alive, was a terrific GOP punching bag for years afterwards. That’s politics. > > So to deny Trump the win, the establishment wants to keep Kasich, Cruz and Rubio in play, all to drain support from Trump. In some states that could backfire - if for example Rubio takes 17% in a state with a proportional representation with a 20% minimum that could help Trump more than it hurts him.\* And in winner take all states, the math becomes less clear. Still, I suspect for the next couple of weeks, the party bigwigs\*\* will want to keep the existing chess pieces on the board. Whether the donor class is capable of such strategizing is less clear and much more relevant. They can’t even organized a decent ad-bomb against Trump after all. > > 3 scenarios: > > 1. No brokered convention, victory in first ballot. > > 2. June ends without a decisive victory for any candidate, but the writing is on the wall. > > 3. Genuine uncertainty about the outcome in early to mid July. The convention occurs during July 18–21. > > \ I am guessing that option #3 will happen. I do not know what will happen at the convention, but I suspect that Trump has been acting as a covert Clinton operative all along. After or during a raucous convention with lots of shouting and booing (even more than in 2012 with the pro-Ron Paul delegates), Trump may fail to gain nomination or choose to drop out of the running…and endorse Hillary Clinton. I could imagine Trump saying something like: \*Republican Party, you’re fired. This whole campaign has been a ruse to create additional chaos on the GOP primary. Bill and Hillary Clinton are friends of mine. I made a deal with the Clintons. I wrote a book about making deals; it’s called _The Art of the Deal. \* Did you really think that someone serious about becoming President would talk like I do? I said some not so nice things about Hillary…I said that she was the worst Secretary of State in the history of this country…but that was all part of the ruse. Anyway, this campaign has been a beautiful work of art…a hyuuuuuge deal. The Republican Party is going to get shlonged in November. The 90s were great. The Clintons were in the White House during that time; they can make America great again. We still need to build a wall, and the Trump Organization plans to put in a bid for that contract._ ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/137 "2016-03-27T19:58:02Z")
The problem for the money Republicans isn’t stopping Trump at the convention, they can cook up some rules, or change whichever rules, and do the job. The problem is getting away with it. So, for now, their only option is to lay whatever groundwork it may require, and pray Trump fucks up bad enough to make him so hugely unpopular with his base that they will shrug and go along with it. And it’ll be Romney. Remember, you heard it here again. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/138 "2016-03-27T20:48:02Z")
> [@Enlightening\_Meditation](#): > > I do not know what will happen at the convention, but I suspect that Trump has been acting as a covert Clinton operative all along. Jeet Heer offers a variant of this hypothesis on twitter: [INDENT] “The Producers” but with a prank candidate who runs for the presidency to get publicity and ends up winning. - Aug 2015 As I keep saying, this is like “The Producers” – Trump wants to fail & bow out, but he keeps winning. - Feb 2016 [/INDENT] [https://newrepublic.com/minutes/131978/donald-trump-keep-going-heidi-cruz](https://newrepublic.com/minutes/131978/donald-trump-keep-going-heidi-cruz) We can’t rule something like that out. Trump is a sales guy. He also has a thoughtful shtick that he has kept under wraps during the campaign. He keeps his cards close to his vest. I find this scenario improbable (I say most people conducting such a strategy would have dropped a [tell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tell_%28poker%29) by now) but not impossible or even implausible. elucidator’s point is also valid. Trump’s campaign could blow up. At that point, rule shenanigans would even be appropriate. Same odds: improbable but not implausible. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/139 "2016-03-27T21:01:24Z")
Hell, **M&M** , everything about this campaign is way out past “improbable”, beyond the orbit of batshit! Poor bastards are hoping for a sensible solution to an irrational problem. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153/140 "2016-03-27T21:33:39Z")
In August 2015, I endorsed Nate Silver’s odds for Trump as 2-4%. Nate Silver backtracked during the fall. Still, during this cycle it’s inappropriate to blindly apply historical patterns. Because historical patterns have been disrupted. The top 2 GOP contenders are wholly unacceptable to the GOP establishment. This blows my mind. It’s not like the establishment has high standards: heck, they would be satisfied with dim witted Rick Perry. Or Rubio. Or Kasich. Heck, I suspect failed CEO Carly Fiorina is looking pretty good right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/road-to-gop-brokered-convention-2016/748153.md?page=8)