From past analyses done, not for all of it right now but, depending on where not far off, if charging is done at current trough times. Handling it added on to peak demand times, no.
My WAG is that interstate charging will require some distributed new generation over time.
I had this weird-ass notion of a rail system using a “terrafoil” design, in which the carriage system is in a tunnel and the train cars attach to it on fin-like posts through a slot, kind of like an inverse monorail (hence, the tunnel can descend at a station to put the train near the platform and rise between stations). The main point of such a setup would be that the drive could be a sub-compact nuclear reactor, protected from major derailment type accidents by the tunnel system. Reactors, which are happiest when running at peak, could then be tied into the grid when a train is not in use, creating a sort of modular power system.
(“Terrafoil” is not a word or concept that I invented.)
I think 50% doing it themselves is high. I’m handy with electricity (Years ago before ordinary people were even thinking about EVs, I put a 50 amp subpanel in a previously unwired garage). But assuming a 35 amp charger for each of two cars that means pulling that all out and putting a 100 amp panel in the garage, and then replacing the main 100 amp panel with a 200 amp panel. And this is even before the possibility of a separate meter. Not something I want to do myself.
Then there’s the idea that natural gas is also evil, so we’re going to try to replace natural gas heating with electric (and probably double the cost to heat our houses while we’re at it). Most of this demand would be at night when it’s coldest, the same time we’re charging our cars.
That’s an amazing idea!
Well, you’ve assumed that a home recharge use of 50% is high, because you’ve assumed 50 amps isn’t enough, and you’ve assumed 2 electric cars, and you’ve assumed each would need 35 amps. What if all of these assumptions are flawed? They are.
I’m aware that the Amtrak “autotrain” exists, In fact, it would seem ideal: pack your car with as much stuff as you want as opposed to what you can reasonably fit on a plane, drive onto the train, take a nap and relax and watch a Harry Potter movie, then drive off the train with your own car full of your own stuff without the hassle and expense of renting a car at your destination.
Amtrak pricing it so only the ultra-rich can afford it, or at least so it makes absolutely no sense vs driving or plane + rent, makes me doubt this is our future.
By “doing it themselves” I mean that the responsibility (and expense) is on the homeowner, and they don’t have to go through a landlord or HOA to get it done. Not DIY.
30 amps should be enough to charge two cars, unless both people drive 200+ miles every day. There are charging boxes that can be connected together on the same circuit. They will split the available amperage if they’re both in use, and if only one is in use then it knows, and can use all the power.
These charging boxes can be pretty smart. For my condo example, installing a separate 50 amp outlet and meter for each parking space is going to be expensive. It will be cheaper to install a single meter for the whole parking structure than 30-50 amps shared for two spaces. Then install smart chargers that handle the power distribution and billing for each space. So the tenants wouldn’t be customers of the power company, but of Chargepoint or another charging provider.
From a New York Times article “Electric Cars Are Coming, and Fast. Is the Nation’s Grid Up to It?”, “If every American switched over to an electric passenger vehicle, analysts have estimated, the United States could end up using roughly 25 percent more electricity than it does today. To handle that, utilities will likely need to build a lot of new power plants and upgrade their transmission networks.”
I’m president of my 100+ unit condo in FL. We are nosing around in this general direction. But getting 50A times 100+ units’ parking spaces added to a building infrastructure that only provides 100A to each apartment to begin with is a big lift. We’re talking bigger mains transformers from the power company, replacing large multiple 1000A power panels and contactors, etc.
The other big lift is right now zero of our owners own EVs because they can’t charge them at home. I need an affirmative vote of 75% of my units before I could proceed to spend the first dollar. At (TOTAL WAG) $1000 per space = per unit all-in I need an awful lot of older and elderly people to embrace that expensive future all at once. None of whom will benefit even a smidgen from giving me the $1K until after they replace their current car with an EV.
I personally want an EV. If I was King ( L’condo c’est moi 
) here, not mere President, we’d already have 100% charging infrastructure.
But from my POV in charge of a typical SoFL condo full of typical SoFL condo residents, I’ll be damned if I see how to get there from here unless somebody other than my “taxpayers” = owners are paying for it. New-build mid- and high-end condos on the few remaining greenfield or freshly created brownfield sites have provisions for chargers built in. But IMO condo/townhouse retrofit is going to be a very long slow slog everywhere. At least until gasoline costs $10/gallon and electricity is still cheap.
Late last sentence add:
I think most commercial = rental apartments will have a similar problem. The decision-making is much more centralized, but the ROI problem is more immediate. And the upstream infrastructure buildout to power each parking space is equally daunting.
But it’s not necessary to electrify all of the parking spaces at once. What about adding a couple of chargers to a few parking spots? You might be able to work with a company like Chargepoint to minimize the cost to the condo perhaps via a usage charge.
My wife and I share one charger. I’ll plug in one night, she’ll plug in the next. These days, with little driving, neither of us are plugged in most nights.
Even with more typical use, we both have so much range for daily driving that we don’t need to plug in every day.
Exactly this, Americans won’t accept the slightest inconvenience, or make the slightest effort. They would much rather continue with behavior that hasn’t made sense since 1960 and then be surprised when it all collapses around them. The rest of the world will move on without America.
All of the electricity to heat our house comes from our solar panels.
Each space belongs to a specific apartment. I can’t spend community money to benefit solely unit 101.
We do have guest / extra car spaces that are communal. Where we could put a few Chargepoint-like devices in where they’d handle the billing/payment end of things. Real quickly we’d be having to police 6 cars trying to share 4 chargers and Sally in 201 saying that the charger closest to her apartment is hers because she got her EV first before those new people.
You laugh, but such are my daily challenges. I’d love to be able to administer an aptitude test for the personality traits necessary to live happily in a condo and refuse purchase permission to those who fail. Sadly, that’s not legal. I don’t have very many problem children as a percentage. But those few are relentlessly a problem.
The real problem we see is we can’t start adding any until we have the upstream infrastructure to add all. Because real quickly adding them piecemeal gets us to the place where we can’t add one more; we’re out of juice.
There’s a lot of logistical complications with its operation that make it limited and expensive. I don’t think there’s anything particularly special about the autoracks, which are used all the time for transporting new cars from factory to market, but it does require passenger stations with vehicle loading ramps and staging areas. That’s why the train runs nonstop from Washington DC to Orlando (nominally). Even if there was a station in between that had the right facilities, it would be no five minute stop.
Passengers don’t load or unload their own cars, railroad workers do that. Even with professionals who know how to drive onto the autoracks, it takes three hours to get all the cars loaded, then another hour and a half to board all passengers and assemble the train for a total of up to 4 1/2 hours sitting around. (11:30am to 2:00pm vehicle loading, 2:30 passenger boarding, 4:00 departure. An overnight train, arrival is at 9:00 the next morning and it can take up to an hour to get your car, so this is basically a 24-hour event. Driving that route will take a good 12 hours at least, so that’s also a full day.
That 800 mile distance and all the logistical implications sets a pretty narrow range of workable distances. As it is, once the arriving train is fully unloaded and restocked, it’s time to start loading it up for the next trip. A shorter distance and and there’s extra time sitting around at the terminals, plus the loading/unloading time makes the journey less attractive. Longer and you can’t turn around the same equipment for another run, or the schedule can’t be the same every day. Doubling the distance could work, that would take you from Washington to San Antonio or Denver. Point being there’s certain sweet spots that need to be hit, it’s not so flexible.
A single coach seat and a normal-sized car is $300 ($90 for the seat and $210 for the car). That’s really not bad at all, and it’s less than the Federal mileage reimbursement rate. Now, a coach seat isn’t the best for an overnight trip. A 2-berth roomette is $300. Kind of steep for one person, but reasonable for two if you treat it like a hotel, and dinner is included. Larger rooms go up further still.
Consider that you’re essentially doing overnight shipping of a vehicle, and also taking an overnight train/hotel journey. They just happen to be in the same manifest. Open flatbed shipping of a car can easily be over $1,000 for the Washington to Orlando distance. Enclosed shipping, which is what the Auto Train is, would generally be another $400. Then you still have to get yourself to the destination.
This is why it’s necessary to think outside the box. The train trip is about 2x the time as driving, but in both cases your whole day is pretty much destroyed. On the train however you’re not the one doing the driving, and you get to sleep, so once you get to the morning of day two you’re pretty much rested and in the same position as if you drove, only you didn’t put 800+ miles on your car. Think of it like paying for a hotel room that takes you to your destination, and paying some else to deliver your car to you when you get there. Those aren’t particularly cheap, but you don’t get paid for the time you spend driving yourself either.
The best way to heat with electricity is a heat pump. Generally much more efficient than baseboard resistance heat.
It looks like a 30A/240V “level 2” charger can deliver about 25m/h in range, which means that, for average usage cases, being plugged in overnight is more than enough for the lion’s share of drivers. Few people drive 200 miles every day, so the net load would not be all that high, and a rather large amount of motor fuel gets burned at traffic lights, which does not happen with EVs (I have seen estimates that suggest that replacing the nation’s light-controlled intersections with roundabouts could reduce our gross motor fuel usage by a fifth, or more, and while that does not improve EV efficiency significantly, it would be that much less juice being drawn from the grid). 50A charging for a condo complex seems excessive, unless it is 50 miles away from where everyone needs to go every day.
Oh yeah, but as you say you see the same type of behavior with every other amenity.
What I see now, and only because I have the chargepoint app installed to charge at work, is that many condo complexes have a one or two chargepoint towers installed in common areas. I know it is possible with chargepoint to set multiple rates for different groups. For example, because I pay for a parking permit I charge for free at work. If I didn’t have a permit, then I would pay to charge (and for parking).
Realistically what I expect to happen for places like yours is that you start with a chargepoint tower, then a few people will get EVs. You’ll hit a high enough usage to install another, and once you have two or three towers you’ll have worked out a system to install dedicated chargers. Hopefully adopting policies from other places that have worked it out before you.
In the before times, there was lots of competition for the chargers at work. It was possible to set a “line” in the app, so that I get the next position when one opens up. I’ve never been able to use this successfully, but I don’t know if that’s an app problem or a me problem. As it is, I get an alert when the charger is available, and then have to run out and move my car. Work does not have a penalty for staying too long after charging completes, but they’ve threatened to do it if people aren’t considerate. The only abuser I’ve noticed drives a plug-in hybrid BMW, which should be able to fill in an hour, but often will stay all day.
My kid’s school has a chargepoint, which is free to use for staff. The principal parks her Leaf there everyday, but only charges about once per week. There isn’t enough competition for it to matter at the moment. I was joking with the other Leaf that occasionally charges there, what are you going to do, when it’s your boss blocking the charger?