Personally, I see Labor dumping Blair as possibly the worst thing that could happen to them. Why? Because, if that were to happen, odds are that they’d pick as a replacement someone from “Old Labor”. A general election would be called soon, and the Tories will be able to take advantage of the party split (and probable moving to the left of the party) to elect Ian Duncan Smith (oh, good heavens) PM.
No, Governor Quinn, none of the major leadership contenders are ‘Old Labour’ and Iain Duncan Smith has virtually no chance of becoming PM. If the Conservatives choose someone from the left of their party, like Ken Clarke or Micheal Portillo (both of whom are much more charismatic than IDS), to lead, they would be in a much better position to win a General Election. As things stand at the moment the Conservatives are in real danger of being overtaken by the Liberal Democrats and becoming Britain’s third party.
Is it just me, or did anybody else originally think this was about the medical-thriller author Robin Cook? … reading the new posts since I wrote this via the Preview button, I think Bryan Ekers has the same idea. 
Actually that Robin Cook is also published author, spy not medical thriller I think.
This might be slightly off topic but…
Is the leader of house of commons roughly equivalent to the house majority leader in the US?
Here’s a link with a short explanation of the job:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/a-z_of_parliament/h-l/82508.stm
Amazon only lists two items by Robin Cook MP (a forward and an introduction to political non-fiction books), so any spy books he’s written are evidently out of print. Most online biogs mention that he writes regular columns on horse racing.
You can make up your own topical joke featuring titles by the other guy:
Vital Signs… Shock… Fatal Cure… Seizure… Brain… Harmful Intent… Mutation… Invasion… Sphinx… Fever
everton - there are two Robin Cooks (well, I’m sure there are more, but two published ones).
And then there’s Lord Cooke of Thorndon, the first New Zealander to sit on the House of Lords, who is yet another Robin Cooke (albeit with an extra ‘e’…) But he retired a year or two ago.
And I’m an idiot. I just re-read your last line, and realised you knew this all along. Sorry.
It’s unlikely that Blair will be replaced. Brown is the only possible replacement at the moment, and there are enough (C/c)onservative screeds like this one to make the Labour Party realise that Blair is still their best hope for re-election (although that Spectator article never actually assumes that the Conservative Party will win the next General Election).
OK, it’s grim up north London and we’re all under a bit of pressure these days ;).
By the way, the Commons vote has just been taken in respect of the government’s policy on Iraq. An amendment had been posted by an anti-War MP stating that there is no moral justification for war without a new UN resolution. That amendment was defeated by 396 votes to 217.
So the government’s policy has been approved, albeit without the full support of government MPs (initial estimates suggest that as many as 139 Labour backbenchers supported the anti-War amendment).