# Romney campaign: We lost Florida **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2012, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402 "2012-11-08T20:53:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/21 "2012-11-08T21:52:30Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > I frankly doubt we will ever see a 10% spread in the popular vote again, in the hyper-partisan, very distinct two parties we have now. I don’t believe this is true at all, precisely because of the changing demographics. By, say, the 2020 election, I believe we will see a 10% spread, especially if the Republican party continues to remain insular and increasingly exclusive. Anyway, congratulations to President Obama for a 332 EV trouncing of Romney and the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/22 "2012-11-08T21:54:30Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I don’t believe this is true at all, precisely because of the changing demographics. By, say, the 2020 election, I believe we will see a 10% spread, especially if the Republican party continues to remain insular and increasingly exclusive. > > Anyway, congratulations to President Obama for a 332 EV trouncing of Romney and the Republicans. Perhaps you are right. I agree that if republicans don’t realign themselves, that it is likely by 2020 the democrats would win by a big popular margin. We’ll see what road they continue to travel down. But please, see my earlier post about Obama’s electoral vote count. For a democrat, 330 EV should be the bare minimum required to win 😉 ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/23 "2012-11-08T22:06:52Z")
> [@UncleRojelio](#): > > Obama carried [Travis county (pdf)](http://www.traviscountyclerk.org/eclerk/content/images/election_results/2012.11.06/Run08/20121106tccume.pdf) quite handily so there is hope. He narrowly carried [Harris County](http://www.khou.com/news/local/Divided-government--Obama-narrowly-wins-in-county-once-dominated-by-GOP-177770881.html), too, and carried 70% of the Latino vote in a state where Latino numbers are steadily increasing. A blue shift is probably a long ways off, but a shift from red to purple could happen. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/24 "2012-11-08T22:10:40Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > He narrowly carried [Harris County](http://www.khou.com/news/local/Divided-government--Obama-narrowly-wins-in-county-once-dominated-by-GOP-177770881.html), too, and carried 70% of the Latino vote in a state where Latino numbers are steadily increasing. A blue shift is probably a long ways off, but a shift from red to purple could happen. Yeah, I’m a Harris County voter and I was almost certain that Obama wasn’t going to win our county this time, because he barely won it in 2008 when he got \>7% margin of victory. The fact that he STILL won it in 2012 with a much closer margin speaks volumes about what’s happening, slowly but surely, in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/25 "2012-11-08T22:12:54Z")
> [@UncleRojelio](#): > > Obama carried [Travis county (pdf)](http://www.traviscountyclerk.org/eclerk/content/images/election_results/2012.11.06/Run08/20121106tccume.pdf) quite handily so there is hope. Obama also got Dallas County, Bexar County (San Antonio) & (just barely) Harris County (Houston). Here’s the[Red/Blue map by County](http://houston.culturemap.com/newsdetail/11-07-12-the-great-divide-obama-carries-top-four-texas-cities-and-loses-by-15-point/)… The counties along the Border are heavily Hispanic. And there’s a strong union vote in Beaumont (southeast corner.) ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/26 "2012-11-08T22:15:20Z")
If the GOP loses Florida in the long run then they are toast (and the demographics suggest it is purple now and may turn blue soon) then they have real problems on their hands. ANd if NC follows suit then the Dems can make 270 with just 14 states: CA, NY, IL, VA, OH, MI, PA, MA MN, WI, NJ, FL, NC, and MD ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/27 "2012-11-08T22:15:38Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > I wonder how many of the conservative pundits who predicted a 330 EV landslide for Romney will now say that Obama narrowly won and has no mandate. I’m guessing the same number of conservatives who were saying a Romney win would be a mandate for overturning public health care and who will now admit that Obama’s win must be a mandate in support of public health care. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/28 "2012-11-08T22:45:10Z")
> [@bup](#): > > That’s hysterical. His Romney landslide prediction was: 325 EV’s. > > Obama’s squeaker of a win: 332 EV’s. Math has a noted liberal bias. In fact, perhaps the Republicans should start a drive to eliminate socialist math from classrooms. Then students would simply have to have faith that 332 is much, much smaller than 325, because they are told that it is true. “Faith based mathematics” ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/29 "2012-11-08T23:09:01Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > He narrowly carried [Harris County](http://www.khou.com/news/local/Divided-government--Obama-narrowly-wins-in-county-once-dominated-by-GOP-177770881.html), too, and carried 70% of the Latino vote in a state where Latino numbers are steadily increasing. A blue shift is probably a long ways off, but a shift from red to purple could happen. Honestly, this is the happiest thing I’ve heard all day. Living in Red State is depressing. I was at an event a couple weeks ago and they took a “straw poll” of the audience. This was not a political event, it was an athletic event. Obama got a smattering of applause and Romney got a landslide. _sigh_ I live in the districts that voted in Ted Cruz and Steve Stockman. _sigh_ Obama winning was happy, but made me cringe to realize the whining I’m going to be subjected to. Seeing that blue shift for Harris County makes me feel better. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/30 "2012-11-08T23:15:58Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Seeing that blue shift for Harris County makes me feel better. Obama won Harris County in 2008, too, in case you didn’t know or see it up thread. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/31 "2012-11-09T01:06:31Z")
> [@bup](#): > > That’s hysterical. His Romney landslide prediction was: 325 EV’s. > > Obama’s squeaker of a win: 332 EV’s. To be fair, that article was written on Nov 7, and the papers then were calling Obama’s win at 303 EVs. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/32 "2012-11-09T01:09:01Z")
> [@Airk](#): > > Secret fact: This election was not, in fact, remotely close, in spite of all the talking heads telling us that it would be. 😉 The Obama campaign (Plouffe, Axelrod) said that they designed the campaign for a close election. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/33 "2012-11-09T01:10:21Z")
> [@little nemo](#): > > i’m guessing the same number of conservatives who were saying a romney win would be a mandate for overturning public health care and who will now admit that obama’s win must be a mandate in support of public health care. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha… ---
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/34 "2012-11-09T01:19:16Z")
I think it’s reasonable to project that during Obama’s second term, Fidel will shuffle off the mortal coil and US-Cuba relations will be normalized. With the right-wind Cuban vote neutralized and Obama getting credit, will a Republican ever win Florida again? ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/35 "2012-11-09T01:24:04Z")
> [@Twoflower](#): > > I think it’s reasonable to project that during Obama’s second term, Fidel will shuffle off the mortal coil and US-Cuba relations will be normalized. With the right-wind Cuban vote neutralized and Obama getting credit, will a Republican ever win Florida again? A valid question if that’s what happens, and Florida continues to trend blue (if it really is trending blue). According to these election results, Florida is still a center-right state (barely went to Obama when he won nationally by over 2%). ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/36 "2012-11-09T01:28:40Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > If the GOP loses Florida in the long run then they are toast (and the demographics suggest it is purple now and may turn blue soon) then they have real problems on their hands. And if NC follows suit then the Dems can make 270 with just 14 states: CA, NY, IL, VA, OH, MI, PA, MA MN, WI, NJ, FL, NC, and MD It’s worse than that for Republicans, though. Texas is already a minority majority state. Minorities don’t vote in proportion to their numbers, although that is becoming less true. While Texas went Republican by 58-42, the increase in the minority population will sooner rather than later drive the Republicans under 50%. In addition, the 2020 census will trigger a reapportionment in the state that will increase the number of Congressional districts winnable by Democrats. They won 12 of 36; by then they may win 22 of 40. That alone could be enough to swing the House Democrat. There is no demographic pathway that doesn’t crush the Republican party in national elections if their policies and attitudes don’t change dramatically. (Triple negative score: add 50 points.) They will wish they only had a 10 percentage point loss. Landslides historically peak at around 61% (Roosevelt 1936, Johnson 1964, Nixon 1972) but that number would be in danger. This projects linearly from today’s trends, which is always fatal in futurism. Something major but impossible to anticipate will happen. But Republicans need to have a talk with Dick Morris and wave some math in his face first. (John Mace, it was 303 EV without Florida, but Obama always appeared to be leading in Florida and Morris should have known that by the time he wrote that piece.) ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/37 "2012-11-09T01:33:56Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > (John Mace, it was 303 EV without Florida, but Obama always appeared to be leading in Florida and Morris should have known that by the time he wrote that piece.) Even if he didn’t know that (which he did), how is 303 a squeaker while his prediction for Romney which was about 20 votes more was a landslide? Morris is a hack, and stupid to boot. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/38 "2012-11-09T01:59:20Z")
Here’s something else I saw pointed out online today- look at the largest states and see if you can spot a problem for Republicans: California (55 EV): solid Democrat Texas (34 EV): solid Republican Florida: (29): tossup New York (29): solid Democrat Illinois (20): solid Democrat Pennsylvania: (20): solid Democrat Ohio (18): tossup Georgia (16): solid Republican Michigan (16): solid Democrat North Carolina (15): tossup The point here isn’t that Republicans are screwed forever and ever because all the trends favor the Democrats and that can’t be changed, it’s that they really don’t have a choice about moderating their views on some issues. You can slice and dice it a lot of ways, but right now they simply have fewer votes they can count on and they need to move some states (like the big above-listed ones) in their direction. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/39 "2012-11-09T02:23:06Z")
> [@bup](#): > > That’s hysterical. His Romney landslide prediction was: 325 EV’s. > > Obama’s squeaker of a win: 332 EV’s. I’ve met centrifuges that had less spin. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402/40 "2012-11-09T03:10:09Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > I feel like it’s really bad news for republicans that in a very close election, Florida went so narrowly to the Democrat. Florida is usually pretty republican-leaning relative to the rest of the country, right? Didn’t Obama only win it by like 2% in 2008 even though he won nationally by over 7%? > > Definitely not good news for republicans if Romney really lost Florida. Florida tends to follow national trends more often than not, and rarely do you see one presidential candidate really crush the other. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-campaign-we-lost-florida/640402.md?page=3)