# Romney leaves the race... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 7, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700 "2008-02-07T18:17:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/21 "2008-02-07T19:07:49Z")
[QUOTE=Rhythmdvl] IMHO, this is not good for the Democrats. McCain’s spending/campaigning can take a light approach up until it becomes a national contest, while Clinton/Obama will be spending and slinging for a while–neither of which is good on a party level. [/QUOTE] This is the conventional wisdom but I’m not convinced it’s true. I’ve never seen any sort of an analysis of nomination races that demonstrates that a tough nomination race equals trouble in the general election. Ronald Reagan and George Bush threw lots of crap at each other in 1980 only to end up stomping a sitting President; Michael Dukakis’s nomination in 1988 was (relatively) peaceful after Gary Hart dropped out but he was resigned to the dustbin of history. Nomination spending and compaigning has the effect of putting the candidates in the public eye. If everyone in the GOP surrenders to John McCain now, McCain will stop being news in about four days until either the GOP or DNC conventions (I don’t remember which comes first) while either Clinton or Obama will remain in the headlines - and, by definition, the one who emerges as the candidate will be the one who won and therefore has a positive story. Either it’ll be Captain Hope and his amazing comback or Billary and what will now be perceived as a comeback of her own. Since Clinton is now backing off the ultra-slime approach that cost her a lot of support, it’s unlikely the winner of the battle will come off as evil, so how would staying in the news be bad? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/22 "2008-02-07T19:22:37Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] This is the conventional wisdom but I’m not convinced it’s true. I’ve never seen any sort of an analysis of nomination races that demonstrates that a tough nomination race equals trouble in the general election. Ronald Reagan and George Bush threw lots of crap at each other in 1980 only to end up stomping a sitting President; Michael Dukakis’s nomination in 1988 was (relatively) peaceful after Gary Hart dropped out but he was resigned to the dustbin of history. Nomination spending and compaigning has the effect of putting the candidates in the public eye. If everyone in the GOP surrenders to John McCain now, McCain will stop being news in about four days until either the GOP or DNC conventions (I don’t remember which comes first) while either Clinton or Obama will remain in the headlines - and, by definition, the one who emerges as the candidate will be the one who won and therefore has a positive story. Either it’ll be Captain Hope and his amazing comback or Billary and what will now be perceived as a comeback of her own. Since Clinton is now backing off the ultra-slime approach that cost her a lot of support, it’s unlikely the winner of the battle will come off as evil, so how would staying in the news be bad? [/QUOTE] Very well put. I suspect the very well funded Obama camp is sitting in their chairs, legs crossed, thinking…hmmmmmm…how can we garner some of his support. I think any vitriol the Romney supporters have towards other candidates, would be placed on Clinton’s lap…just a hunch. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/23 "2008-02-07T19:26:30Z")
Well, heck. I supported Giuliani; he dropped out. I supported Romney; he’s out. A pattern is developing here. Huckabee for President! Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/24 "2008-02-07T19:32:04Z")
Thanks, **Shodan**! Keep up the good work! ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/25 "2008-02-07T19:36:18Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] Well, heck. I supported Giuliani; he dropped out. I supported Romney; he’s out. A pattern is developing here. Huckabee for President! Regards, Shodan [/QUOTE] Could I convince you to back Hillary? Just for a week or two? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/26 "2008-02-07T19:39:30Z")
Better her than Huck - or Obama. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/27 "2008-02-07T19:42:22Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] Better her than Huck - or Obama. Regards, Shodan [/QUOTE] Really?? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/28 "2008-02-07T19:43:51Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] Better her than Huck - or Obama. [/QUOTE] Most fervently agreed. In a rare show of solidarity to The 'Dope I will announce that if the Huckster wins the Republican nomination I will forgo my usual voting for a 3rd party candidate and vote unreservedly for either Hillary or Obama (or Mickey Mouse if the Dems throw up the cute little guy as their nominee). I so avow and affirm…and may Og have mercy on our (purported) souls… -XT ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/29 "2008-02-07T19:45:46Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] This is the conventional wisdom but I’m not convinced it’s true. I’ve never seen any sort of an analysis of nomination races that demonstrates that a tough nomination race equals trouble in the general election. Ronald Reagan and George Bush threw lots of crap at each other in 1980 only to end up stomping a sitting President; Michael Dukakis’s nomination in 1988 was (relatively) peaceful after Gary Hart dropped out but he was resigned to the dustbin of history. [/quote] Gary Hart had only a minimal effect on the Dems’ primary season in 1988 - Dukakis’ main rivals were Gore, Gephardt, and Jesse Jackson (who, as we all know, won SC that year :)). It was a pretty serious contest for a couple of months. But the larger point holds. Carter won the 1976 election despite not clinching the nomination until the first week of June. Same with Clinton in 1992, only I think it was late April before he finally got a commanding lead. Kerry in 2004 wrapped up the nomination early; he’s still in the Senate. > [@](#): > > Nomination spending and compaigning has the effect of putting the candidates in the public eye. If everyone in the GOP surrenders to John McCain now, McCain will stop being news in about four days until either the GOP or DNC conventions (I don’t remember which comes first) while either Clinton or Obama will remain in the headlines - and, by definition, the one who emerges as the candidate will be the one who won and therefore has a positive story. Either it’ll be Captain Hope and his amazing comback or Billary and what will now be perceived as a comeback of her own. Since Clinton is now backing off the ultra-slime approach that cost her a lot of support, it’s unlikely the winner of the battle will come off as evil, so how would staying in the news be bad? I agree with you on all of this. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/30 "2008-02-07T19:48:34Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Most fervently agreed. In a rare show of solidarity to The 'Dope I will announce that if the Huckster wins the Republican nomination I will forgo my usual voting for a 3rd party candidate and vote unreservedly for either Hillary or Obama (or Mickey Mouse if the Dems throw up the cute little guy as their nominee). I so avow and affirm…and may Og have mercy on our (purported) souls… -XT [/QUOTE] Christ, what an imagination I’ve got… ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/31 "2008-02-07T19:49:58Z")
McCain has the GOP nomination lock, stock and barrel. HRC would just be the second coming of the same ol’cavalry - Blegh. I don’t see her as any more capable than Obama. At very least Obama would be much more tolerable when speaking in public. I shudder the thought of her in the oval office. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/32 "2008-02-07T19:52:08Z")
Romney didn’t leave the race, the race left him. He got no traction. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/33 "2008-02-07T20:23:12Z")
> [@](#): > > Romney didn’t leave the race, the race left him. He got no traction. So if Mitt Romney was on a treadmill…? ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/34 "2008-02-07T20:25:14Z")
He didn’t want it bad enough. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/35 "2008-02-07T20:25:49Z")
[QUOTE=CalMeacham] So if Mitt Romney was on a treadmill…? [/QUOTE] He would still take off. You see, unlike a car it’s the propeller that actually… Um. Never mind. Wrong discussion. -XT ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/36 "2008-02-07T20:32:00Z")
Hey, he’s just “suspending” his campaign! (I had a great-uncle who was suspended in much the same way, outside of Laredo…) ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/37 "2008-02-07T20:47:03Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] This is the conventional wisdom but I’m not convinced it’s true. I’ve never seen any sort of an analysis of nomination races that demonstrates that a tough nomination race equals trouble in the general election. [/QUOTE] In each of the seven elections between 1964 and 1988 inclusive, the party which was more united _at the time of its convention_ won the election. This is part of the reason why conventions became tightly scripted infomercials. The evidence that a protracted _primary_ fight harms the eventual nominee is less convincing. It’s good for an incumbent president to avoid a primary challenge (challenges to Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 were signs of weakness), but when there is no incumbent, a primary fight is almost inevitable and not necessarily a bad sign. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/38 "2008-02-07T20:52:31Z")
As someone said on Forum Wednesday morning, the Mitt hit the fan. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/39 "2008-02-07T21:20:55Z")
I think in a lot of states this will help Obama. I think it frees independents to vote for Obama that may have voted for McCain. I will be quite happy if in the end it is Obama vs. McCain. That would make it the best choices I have ever had in an election. I will vote for Obama, only to help swing the Supreme Court back to the left a bit. It has gone too far to the right. I like and respect both Obama & McCain. It has been a long time since I could actually say that about either nominee. So hopefully Obama pulls off his upset. [QUOTE=Shodan] Well, heck. I supported Giuliani; he dropped out. I supported Romney; he’s out. A pattern is developing here. Huckabee for President! Regards, Shodan [/QUOTE] Cool! It should work too. ---
**Author:** ![Sampiro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/2acd7d/32.png) [@Sampiro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sampiro)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700/40 "2008-02-07T21:25:48Z")
Possibly a hijack, but related so I’ll ask it: How exactly did McCain pull this off? Does he have great campaign managers or…? His campaign was broke and having to let go of staff and he was the lag behind in all the polls just a few weeks ago. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-leaves-the-race/436700.md?page=3)