Roulette wagering - why forbid red and black?

Factual Questions
41

There are a zillion variations on the Martingale and other betting systems. They all add up to exactly the same thing: The house gets its percentage multiplied by the amount of money you put into action.

If a wager has a negative expectation, no combination of bets on that wager can ever give you a positive expectation.

If you really want to win in the casino, here are pretty much the only ways to do it:

  • Play blackjack and learn to count.
  • Play poker and learn to play well
  • Bet the sports book and know what you’re doing
  • Play 9/6 video poker perfectly
  • Play progressive slots when the progressive is high enough

Those are the main ways that gambling professionals earn their living, with blackjack and poker being the #1 and #2 choices (poker’s a better deal, but takes longer to learn).

On the fringes are biased wheels in roulette, taking advantage of overly-generous comp policies, finding games with a mechanical or logical flaw in them (the Keno coup I mentioned earlier, a casino that let patrons spin their own big six wheel, etc). Baccarat seems to have some vulnerability to team play, but those in the know are keeping pretty quiet about it.

That’s about it. Any other ‘system’ you hear about is probably bogus. Likewise, nonsense like quitting when you’re ahead, setting stop limits on losses, etc. is a complete waste of time.

42

Believe it or not, I’ve never been to a casino. I’m not much of a gambler when it comes to real money in the multiple digits.
I consider myself pretty good at the casual game of poker or blackjack between friends though. I also like to think I’m pretty good at solitaire too. (Yeah, me and every other one of the zillion Windows-solitaire playing wanna-be’s) So what’s the scoop on solitaire in casinos? Do most casinos have it? What kinda odds do you get to make your money back? As I understand it, you pay for the deck beforehand, then you earn a certain amount for all the cards you place. Is this the true sucker’s game? What gives?

43

I’ll agree that they are a complete waste of time for the professional (or even serious) gambler, but these are quite good rules of thumb to follow for those who want to make gaming a part of their vacation plans or a casual weekend activity.

Many people find that a visit to a casino can be tons of fun, even if they lose money, because of the high-stakes surroundings, the thrill of the (interim) victories while the casino takes their money, or whatever. That’s OK. But to be safe, decide how much you want to spend (lose) and stick to it. And if you find yourself up a few bucks you should make a conscious decision, away from a gaming table, about how much you are willing to give back to the house.

I apologize if I seem preachy, dhanson, especially on a nit that was not the main thrust of your post. But most of the readers of this thread do not share the savvy, experience and resources of you and some of the other posters. Having seen friends ruin vacations and even lives in a casino, I thought that little aside was important.

Livin’ on Tums, Vitamin E and Rogaine

44

Forget roulette. The only way you stand a chance in hell, statistically speaking, of beating the house is craps. Play the pass line and take all the odds they’ll give you. The higher the odds are , the better percentages. If it goes 10x, you get very nearly an even chance, with the house having only the tiniest smidge of an advantage.

The rest of it is just throwing your money away. But fun!

Oh…and if you really like to PLAY? Pai-Gow poker. There’s so much pushing going on (usually) that you can sit with $100 and play all night.

stoid

This is a non-smoking area. If we see you smoking, we will assume you are on fire and act accordingly.

45

Manhatten: It’s a double-edged sword. On the one hand, stop limits are good for losing gamblers because it limits the amount that they play, causing them to lose less.

On the other hand, even when playing a losing game there will often be times when you are temporarily ahead, and many compulsive gamblers keep coming back because they feel that the ‘secret’ is to just have more discipline to leave when they are ahead. I’ve spent a lot of time in casinos, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard that.

I believe the #1 weapon against compulsive gambling is education. Slot players won’t quit because they become convinced that they are ‘due’ and more likely to win if they keep playing. If you can show them how a slot machine works, they might understand that it makes no difference. This won’t help the truly addicted, but a good understanding of probability and the mechanism of casino games may keep casual gamblers from becoming addicted.

46

Like several people have said, this is called the Martingale progression and, no, it doesn’t work. Details depend (slightly) on the actual house advantage in the game. You don’t mention what game, so I’ll make one up - say the house has a 1% advantage.

Actually, what I really mean is that, when the smoke clears, you have a 49.5% chance of winning one particular “hand” (or spin, or whatever). Am I correct in thinking that that’s a 1% house advantage?

Regardless, I’ll work with the 49.5% figure. This sounds good - you keep doubling your bet until you win. Let’s call each of these consecutive hands a Sequence. A Sequence ends when you win (for a net $5 profit), at whcih point you start over with a new Sequence. You’re fine until you lose 10 consecutive hands, as you point out - then your next bet (called for by the progression) would be above the table maximum.

How likely is this to happen? I figure that it has a 0.108% chance of occuring. By this I mean that 99.892% of your Sequences will terminate with a win somewhere in the first 10 hands, and a $5 profit.

Sounds great, right? Well, the problem is that when you do get 10 consecutive losses in a sequence, you’re down $5115 for that sequence (total of all 10 lost bets).

Do all of your $5 wins make up for that? No, they don’t. On a given Sequence, you have a 99.892% chance of winning $5, and a 0.108% chance of losing $5115. In the long haul that works out to an expected per-Sequence loss of about $0.52.

You may very well go a long time before you get that 10-loss Sequence. When you do, though, it will bury whatever winnings you’ve gotten and are likely to get in the near future.

Changing the house advantage will change the details, but not the ultimate result: it doesn’t work. Ya can’t beat the odds. :slight_smile:

47

I’m an idiot. MSU Don, you did mention the game. Sorry. Somebody more knowledgeable than me could provide a more accurate house advantage for Blackjack - I made one up for a generic game.

It still doesn’t change the result. You’ll have lots of small victories, and the occasional HUGE loss. The losses will be just big enough (and just frequent enough) to cancel out the wins over time.

48

Hey, brad_d, if you were going for a one year anniversary post, you only missed it by a day. :slight_smile:

49

Your wasting time and space, two valuable casino commodities.

GREAT RULE! It’s their house, don’t waste their time.:cool:

50

Damn! I think we have a new leader.

51

I gotta tell you, I’ve played blackjack in a dozen casinos or more and split tens against a dealer’s six in just about all of them (and it works almost every time) and I never saw it checked with a pit boss.

52

Ahhh! I’m going to run and hide now. :eek:

All the while scratching my head trying to figure out how I managed to do this…

54

Aside from the fact that this “tip” is out-of-date since most people carry watches and phones and various other timepieces these days, you may not have realized that you’ve responded to a thread from 22 years ago.

55

I like the Mirage in Las Vegas. A beautiful skylight atrium, which lets in daylight over the gaming floor; and the race/sports book always has a clock, since they won’t book bets after the start of a race or game. I’ve always got my watch and my phone to tell me the time, anyway.

Interestingly, casinos and race books here in Alberta always have a clock somewhere. Especially when the 3rd race at Lethbridge goes off at 2:20 PM, you’d better have a clock. Normally, it’s on the toteboard, (“TOD” for “Time of Day” and “MTR” for “Minutes to Race”) but it’s also around the mutuel windows. No horseplayer wants to be shut out because he or she didn’t know the time left to wager.

56

What I liked about the Mirage is that volcano show they have outside. The only thing missing, IMHO, was the throwing of the obligatory sacrificial virgin into the volcano.

59

[Moderating]

This thread was bumped from its long dormancy by a spammer. The spammer has since been deleted, so let’s let this thing rest in peace.