# Roulette wheel "even money" bets

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/roulette-wheel-even-money-bets/823166>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [October 18, 2018, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/roulette-wheel-even-money-bets/823166 "2018-10-18T19:23:55Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/roulette-wheel-even-money-bets/823166/61 "2018-10-23T20:41:08Z")

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> [@septimus](#):
>
> _**Do you at least agree with my case (c) in the follow-up where I argue that, clearly, a sufficiently rich person (say several millions, not just the $400k Kelly threshold) should “hedge” little or none of his forced bet, while a person for whom the forced bet is a substantial fraction of his bankroll should hedge most of it?**_

Calm down, calm down.

I agree with the general principal you state, but here’s a mile of difference between a general principle, and a mathematical formula that you claim is its exact embodiment. The first makes sense, the second is saying much more than can be said.

And in mathematics, that’s the cardinal sin: making a stronger claim than you can support, and arguing that it’s true anyway.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/roulette-wheel-even-money-bets/823166/62 "2018-10-23T20:48:23Z")

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> [@RTFirefly](#):
>
> Yeah, and you were referring to a _person_, a fellow Doper who you said would be able to back you up.
> 
> What happened to him/her?

😕 :smack: I don’t need any “back-up.” To the contrary I find it rather odd I need to explain any of this to a self-described math geek. Evidently there’s something in my tone that’s off-putting. :o

The “fellow Doper” was just a little joke — _We have a Doper whose user-name is **Kelly Criterion**._

I don’t get your “calm down calm down” post either. The precise Kelly Criterion is an excellent starting point. (The biggest problem with it is defining “bankroll.” Should this include “indispensables” like your home? Some portion of future earning capability? It’s obviously just a starting point, … but a good one.)

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**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/roulette-wheel-even-money-bets/823166/63 "2018-10-23T21:10:57Z")

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> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Guy is sitting at the roulette wheel. He hears a little voice in his ear, “Bet $100 on red!”
> 
> The guy looks around, doesn’t see anyone. He shrugs, and puts $100 on red. He wins!
> 
> The little voice says, “OK, now put it on 11.” The guy puts it on 11. He wins!
> 
> The little voice says, “OK, one more. Put everything on black.” The guy puts everything on black, and loses it all.
> 
> The little voice says, “Oh shit.”  
> Regards,  
> Shodan

There is Matlock in either Vegas or Atlantic City where he puts $2 on a number (I think, maybe red). It hits while he has to run off to do Matlock stuff. He wanders back, they had held his money (no idea if they would actually do that), he let’s it ride while having to run off again. He wins again, they run the gag a few more times, it’s finally some crazy large amount (undoubtedly greater than table max bet (but hey, it’s TV and Matlock)) , his number finally doesn’t come up.

His friend asks him how he did. “Lost $2.”

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