# Rumsfeld: Iran aiding Iraq insurgents; another war before November? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 8, 2004, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656 "2004-09-08T12:53:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/41 "2004-09-19T21:03:58Z")
> [@Ale](#): > > Pardon my ignorance, but what does AQ have to do with Iran? Who said it did have anything to do with Iran?? I said that feelings in the ME aren’t likely to get worse…part of those worse feelings come from AQ. Q.E.D. our attacking Iran isn’t likely to make AQ (or anyone else) attack or hate us MORE than they already do. See? You are of course forgiven. -XT ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/42 "2004-09-19T21:08:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So, in other words, the Iranians didn’t dupe the Bush Administration; they just helped the Administration dupe itself, and dupe the American people. Right. But, the funny part of this whole thing, if it turns out to be correct, is that these neo-cons like to think of themselves as being so smart and rational and not suckers like the rest of us and, in fact, they are the biggest suckers of all…Because their ideology so blinds them to the truth that they are willing to believe just about anything. I sort of imagine these Iranian intelligence folks telling the Iraqis that Chalibi was providing to make their stories more and more incredible just for the sheer fun of seeing how crazy they could make it and still have the U.S. buy it hook, line, and sinker! It’s already fun to watch the Wall Street Journal editorial page trying to come to terms with the stuff about their buddy Chalabi. It is sort of like watching a game of “Twister”! ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/43 "2004-09-19T21:27:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You have to learn to think like a Bushivik. Iran is evil. Al-Qaeda is evil. North Korea is evil. All evil is the same. :rolleyes: Oh please. I was clearly responding to you earlier and didn’t draw any links between Iran and AQ. GIve me a fucking break. -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/44 "2004-09-19T21:37:44Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > :rolleyes: Oh please. I was clearly responding to you earlier and didn’t draw any links between Iran and AQ. GIve me a fucking break. > > -XT Maybe **you** don’t think that way, **x,** but it appears most Bushiviks do. Tell me I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2004, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/45 "2004-09-19T21:58:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Maybe you don’t think that way, x, but it appears most Bushiviks do. Tell me I’m wrong. No, I don’t think that…and Ale had taken my response to you to god knows where. Certainly no where I was going with it. Do some Bush supporters think this way? Obviously they see links, and they also see an over all threat that groups certain nations together. Arguably North Korea IS a pretty bad nation and IS a destabalizing force in its region. Iran also could be characterized as having rogue tendencies, and certainly I fail to see why they would want to even tempt fate this way with even the POSSIBILITY of a nuke program. I don’t see direct links between AQ and Iran…or Iran and NK, or NK and AQ, etc…but that doesn’t mean they aren’t all (or could potentially become) a threat to regional stability, or even world stability. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/46 "2004-09-20T02:36:32Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, if you read my OP, I was speculating about the possibility of an **attack** on Iran, not necessarily a full-scale invasion. But a bombing raid on their nuclear facilities would still be an\*\* act of war\*\*. No , it would only be an act of war , if the Iranians decided it would be. Look at it this way , a B-2 strike on their facilities sets their program back years , if not totally. The mullahs get peeved and send the army towards Iraq , with the intention of engaging American forces , and possibly using its airforce and missiles and attack Israel. Awaiting this move are squadrons of B-52’s , B-1’s to destroy divisions on the move from Iran , that can only move at about 60 klicks a day , naval and airforce fighters , can destroy the Iranian airforce, back stopped by the Israeli airforce. > [@](#): > > Of course, a bombing raid, while it might set back the Iranians’ nuclear-bomb program,\*\* would do absolutely nothing to stop the Iranians from supporting the Shi’ite insurgents in Iraq\*\* – assuming they really are doing that. Are they really doing that, or is Rumsfeld just forgetting to take his meds? But it might , if they get smacked hard enough. Otherwise , send Green Beret A-teams into Iran and return the favor. > [@](#): > > Where’s **Tamerlane** when we need him? LOL, this is what I really wanted to reply to [Tamerlane](http://www.carpenoctem.tv/military/tamerlane.html) Tamerlane is actually what the persian mothers use ,to scare their children with , some how I doubt thats what you were refering too, but it was a pleasant thought. Declan ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/47 "2004-09-20T02:57:06Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > No , it would only be an act of war , if the Iranians decided it would be. Look at it this way , a B-2 strike on their facilities sets their program back years , if not totally. The mullahs get peeved and send the army towards Iraq , with the intention of engaging American forces , and possibly using its airforce and missiles and attack Israel. > > Awaiting this move are squadrons of B-52’s , B-1’s to destroy divisions on the move from Iran , that can only move at about 60 klicks a day , naval and airforce fighters , can destroy the Iranian airforce, back stopped by the Israeli airforce. Yes . . . and then what? “NEWSWEEK has learned that the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. No one liked the outcome. As an Air Force source tells it, ‘The war games were unsuccessful at preventing the conflict from escalating.’” And if it’s likely to escalate, isn’t it better we don’t get into it in the first place? Isn’t it better to tolerate the existence of a nuclear-armed Iran than to risk a general regional war? ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/48 "2004-09-20T03:35:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Yes . . . and then what? “NEWSWEEK has learned that the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. No one liked the outcome. \*\*As an Air Force source tells it, ‘The war games were unsuccessful at preventing the conflict from escalating.’” \*\* And if it’s likely to escalate, isn’t it better we don’t get into it in the first place? Isn’t it better to tolerate the existence of a nuclear-armed Iran than to risk a general regional war? Sorta reminds me of Kennedys Generals telling him that they could take out 90 percent of Cuba’s missiles , but an invasion would have been required to fully ensure that none of the sites would ever be operational. While the soviets could not do jack for the Cubans , should an invasion have taken place , they did have a dandy plan for taking berlin back , which would have meant the big one would have started. The solution that worked in 62 would work equally as well today , blockade em , no muss , no fuss , total victory inside of three weeks. Declan ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/49 "2004-09-20T12:38:50Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > The solution that worked in 62 would work equally as well today , blockade em , no muss , no fuss , total victory inside of three weeks. > > Declan That’s fine for an island nation like Cuba, but how would one do that to Iran? ---
**Author:** ![pervert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bbe5ce/32.png) [@pervert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pervert)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/50 "2004-09-20T14:18:49Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > That’s fine for an island nation like Cuba, but how would one do that to Iran? Make Iran an island first? 😉 huh? huh? Ok, really bad nuclear weapons joke. Sorry, couldn’t resist. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/51 "2004-09-20T15:08:26Z")
> [@pervert](#): > > Make Iran an island first? 😉 huh? huh? And the sea was like glass, so peaceful it was… ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2004, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/52 "2004-09-20T15:59:34Z")
Look, **Declan,** we can’t “blockade” Iran – it’s bordered by too many countries we don’t control. Blockading Iran would also mean taking its oil off the world market (or allowing it to be sold only under an Iraq-style “oil-for-food” program). You think we’re going to even consider that? And we can’t afford a war. We already have 150,000 troops and God know how many more billions of dollars committed to holding down Iraq and Afghanistan. We don’t have the resources to fight another war right now, and the Iranians know it. The whole world knows it. Diplomatic pressure is our only option. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/53 "2004-09-21T07:28:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Look, **Declan,** we can’t “blockade” Iran – it’s bordered by too many countries we don’t control. Blockading Iran would also mean taking its oil off the world market (or allowing it to be sold only under an Iraq-style “oil-for-food” program). You think we’re going to even consider that?. Actually have you looked at a map recently as to who Iran borders on ? Lets see Afganistan check Iraq check Russia check Persian gulf check So yes , you can effectively shut down Irans trading , via blockade. Actually I do agree with you , no war with Iran , solve it politically and diplomatically. Declan ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/54 "2004-09-21T15:07:22Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > Actually have you looked at a map recently as to who Iran borders on ? > > Lets see > > Afganistan check > > Iraq check > > Russia check > > Persian gulf check > > So yes , you can effectively shut down Irans trading , via blockade. > > Actually I do agree with you , no war with Iran , solve it politically and diplomatically. > > Declan Iran shares no border with Russia. You forgot Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and the Caspian Sea. I don’t see how it would be possible to embargo Iran. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/55 "2004-09-21T15:08:41Z")
Correction, I don’t see how it would be possible to **blockade** Iran. We could declare an embargo – but, as with Cuba, some countries might agree to follow suit, most wouldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/56 "2004-09-21T15:10:04Z")
Oh, and Iran also borders Pakistan – which has friendly relations with the U.S. at the moment, but tomorrow, who knows? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/57 "2004-09-21T18:05:27Z")
I don’t see why that would lead to war. This happened all the time during the cold war. China or the USSR would fund insurgents and the US would fund other insurgents but at the end of the day there would be no war. Why would there be one now? The USSR didn’t declare war when the US funded the mujahideen in Afghanistan. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/58 "2004-09-21T18:09:44Z")
> [@Wesley Clark](#): > > I don’t see why that would lead to war. This happened all the time during the cold war. China or the USSR would fund insurgents and the US would fund other insurgents but at the end of the day there would be no war. Why would there be one now? The USSR didn’t declare war when the US funded the mujahideen in Afghanistan. You don’t see why what would lead to war – the Iranians funding Iraqi insurgents, or the U.S. making incursions into Iran to put a stop to that? The first (assuming it’s really happening, of which I’m still not convinced) won’t lead to war if the Bush Admin decides to tolerate it. The second **would** lead to war, I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/59 "2004-09-21T18:11:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You don’t see why what would lead to war – the Iranians funding Iraqi insurgents, or the U.S. making incursions into Iran to put a stop to that? The first (assuming it’s really happening, of which I’m still not convinced) won’t lead to war if the Bush Admin decides to tolerate it. The second **would** lead to war, I’m afraid. What i’m saying is this has been happening for a long time. It happened all the time in the cold war. The Chinese and Russians would fund North Koreans or North Vietnamese and American soldiers and their allies in that country would die. The US would respond by funding insurgents in places like Afghanistan where Russian troops would die. None of it led to war so I don’t see why this situation would be different. Maybe because Iran is a small country w/o WMD to attack its enemy like the US, China and USSR were. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2004, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656/60 "2004-09-22T03:34:27Z")
Updates: [http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html](http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html) > [@](#): > > United Nations on Tuesday by announcing it has begun converting a large amount of raw uranium to prepare it for enrichment, a process that can be used to develop atomic bombs. > > The announcement was likely to provoke an angry reaction from Washington and increase suspicion in Israel, which plans to buy 500 ``bunker buster’’ bombs from the United States that could take out Iran’s underground atomic facilities. > > Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, told reporters Iran had begun converting 37 tonnes of raw ``yellowcake’’ uranium to process it for use in nuclear centrifuges – the machines that enrich uranium. > > The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, adopted a resolution on Saturday calling on Iran to suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment. The United States, Russia and the European Union reinforced the message on Monday by urging Tehran to comply. > > ``Some of the amount of the 37 tonnes has been used. The tests have been successful but these tests have to be continued using the rest of the material,’’ said Aghazadeh, one of Iran’s vice presidents, who is attending a general conference of the Vienna-based IAEA. > > One nuclear expert has said that once converted from yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride, the feed material for enrichment centrifuges, Iran would eventually be able to enrich enough uranium for up to five nuclear weapons. > > The IAEA is aware of Iran’s plan to convert the uranium for the enrichment process and said it would monitor the tests. > > ``IAEA (chief) Mohamed ElBaradei continues to call on Iran, as did the board, to suspend such a test as part of their confidence building measures,’’ spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. > > Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said Iran was determined to press ahead with its atomic program even if it brought an end to U.N. checks of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites. > > ``We are determined to obtain peaceful atomic technology even if it causes the stop of international supervision,’’ he said. And [http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/21/politics/21diplo.html](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/21/politics/21diplo.html) > [@](#): > > Like Iraq in its final years under Saddam Hussein, Iran is believed by experts to be on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb. In Iraq, that proved to be untrue, though this time the consensus is much stronger among Western experts. > > In addition, as with Iraq, administration officials have said recently that Iran is supporting insurgencies and terrorism in other countries. Recently, top administration officials have accused the Tehran government of backing the rebels in Iraq, something that officials fear could increase if Iran is pressed too hard on its nuclear program. > > A parallel concern in Washington is Iran’s continued backing of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group that the administration and the Israeli government say is channeling aid to groups attacking Israeli civilians. Israel also warns that Iran’s nuclear program will reach a “point of no return” next year, after which it will be able to make a bomb without any outside assistance. > > The Bush administration has yet to forge a clear strategy on how to deal with Iran, partly because of a lack of attractive options and partly because there is a debate under way between hard-liners and advocates of diplomatic engagement. But in another similarity with the Iraq situation before the war, Washington is in considerable disagreement with key allies over how to handle the threat. > > Britain, France and Germany say Iran’s nuclear program is unacceptable, but they also warn that a confrontation could backfire and that incentives as well as punishments need to be presented to Tehran. Threatening sanctions - a cutoff in oil purchases, for example - is not viewed as credible or likely to get much support, they say. > > European views cannot be dismissed, especially after the discord over Iraq, administration officials say. Last weekend, under European pressure, the United States agreed to defer its demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency immediately refer Iran’s noncooperation on nuclear issues to the United Nations Security Council, where sanctions might be considered. Instead, Iran was given two more months to show that it was cooperating. ☹ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/rumsfeld-iran-aiding-iraq-insurgents-another-war-before-november/263656.md?page=4)